Powell gave his anticipated speech at Jackson Hole:
“The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” Mr. Powell said in his final speech as Fed chair at an annual conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson, Wyo. With borrowing costs weighing on the economy, the labor market softening and inflation risks contained, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” said the chair.
Mr. Powell highlighted the recent slowdown in monthly jobs growth, but questioned whether it was a function of a pullback in demand from companies or a reduction in the supply of workers resulting from President Trump’s immigration crackdown. He said that left the labor market in a “curious kind of balance” that warranted caution.
“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising,” he said. “And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”
Mr. Powell stressed, however, that inflation was still too high even as he sought to push back on concerns that Mr. Trump’s tariffs would lead to a persistent rise in price pressures. Rather he said a “reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived — a one-time shift in the price level.”
“Of course, ‘one-time’ does not mean ‘all at once.’ It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks,” he added.
Still, Mr. Powell acknowledged that the Fed was in a “challenging situation” given that the central bank’s two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market are now in tension with one another. Against this backdrop, he said, the Fed would need to “proceed carefully” with its plans to reduce the degree of restraint it is imposing on the economy.
There were, of course, market effects:
Traders boosted bets on a September rate cut after Powell’s comments, now placing a nearly 90% chance of a reduction, versus about 75% before Powell’s remarks.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.33% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, sank to 3.69% from 3.79% in a notable move for the bond market.
Canada’s two-year bond yield fell to 2.69% from 2.73% earlier in the day. The Canadian dollar rose about half a cent, its largest gain since May 23, reflecting losses in the U.S. dollar. It was trading at 72.34 cents US by late afternoon.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 846.24 points, or 1.89%, to 45,631.74, surpassing its most recent record close on December 4, 2024. The S&P 500 gained 96.74 points, or 1.52%, to 6,466.91 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 396.22 points, or 1.88%, to 21,496.54.
The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 277.70 points, or 0.99%, at 28,333.13, surpassing the record closing high it posted on Thursday. For the week, the index was up 1.53%, its third straight weekly gain.
And those rugged free-enterprise Republican types have endorsed state capitalism:
The United States government is making an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, giving the Trump administration a roughly 10% stake in the struggling chipmaker, Intel and the president announced on Friday.
“It is my Great Honor to report that the United States of America now fully owns and controls 10% of INTEL, a Great American Company that has an even more incredible future,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday
…
The remaining $5.7 billion that Intel had been awarded but not yet granted from the CHIPs and Science Act will fund the equity, along with $3.2 billion that Intel had been promised from the Department of Defense as part of the Secure Enclave program. The government is purchasing 433.3 million shares at a price of $20.47 per share, or a 9.9% stake in the company.
…
Trump also said he would do more of these types of deals. His administration has been weighing opportunities to take similar stakes in various US companies in critical industries, two people familiar with the White House discussions on the matter told CNN last week.
I’m with Tulane University professor Walter Isaacson on this one:
In a recent CNBC interview, Tulane University professor Walter Isaacson expressed concern over the precedent. “You’re seeing state capitalism here, where the government is interfering in all sorts of ways in corporate decisions,” he said.
Isaacson cautioned that such interventions often evolve into crony capitalism, where favoured companies benefit from political ties rather than market merit.
“That is a recipe for not only disaster but just sort of a corrupt sense of messiness,” he added.
According to the industry expert, direct equity stakes risk undermining free-market dynamics and investor confidence. Note that INTC shares are still down nearly 9.0% versus its year-to-date high.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 6.83 % | 7.30 % | 35,133 | 13.10 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 2,413.4 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1774 % | 4,623.1 |
| Floater | 6.57 % | 6.93 % | 42,073 | 12.57 | 3 | 0.1774 % | 2,664.3 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.6347 % | 3,654.2 |
| SplitShare | 4.79 % | 4.87 % | 52,455 | 2.35 | 7 | -0.6347 % | 4,363.9 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.6347 % | 3,404.9 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.80 % | 3.40 % | 91,438 | 0.08 | 2 | 0.1391 % | 3,070.9 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.59 % | 5.70 % | 42,335 | 14.29 | 30 | 0.2521 % | 3,348.5 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.66 % | 6.24 % | 114,951 | 13.24 | 37 | -0.0048 % | 3,001.2 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.42 % | 5.53 % | 55,324 | 14.52 | 18 | 0.1551 % | 3,333.7 |
| FloatingReset | 5.26 % | 5.33 % | 37,950 | 14.87 | 1 | 0.0805 % | 3,750.6 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.88 % | 5.10 % | 115,990 | 2.47 | 17 | 0.1575 % | 2,630.9 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0048 % | 3,067.9 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.26 % | 5.64 % | 68,780 | 14.30 | 15 | 0.0497 % | 3,048.4 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | -6.80 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 5.97 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -2.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
| ENB.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | -1.74 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 21.50 Evaluated at bid price : 21.50 Bid-YTW : 6.23 % |
| PVS.PR.G | SplitShare | -1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Option Certainty Maturity Date : 2026-02-28 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.06 Bid-YTW : 6.48 % |
| BN.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | -1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 21.92 Evaluated at bid price : 22.40 Bid-YTW : 6.56 % |
| PVS.PR.J | SplitShare | -1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2028-02-29 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.01 Bid-YTW : 4.80 % |
| PVS.PR.H | SplitShare | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2027-02-28 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.09 Bid-YTW : 5.16 % |
| PVS.PR.M | SplitShare | -1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2031-03-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.55 Bid-YTW : 4.95 % |
| BN.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 20.96 Evaluated at bid price : 20.96 Bid-YTW : 5.76 % |
| POW.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 1.56 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 22.49 Evaluated at bid price : 22.75 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
| PVS.PR.L | SplitShare | 1.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2030-06-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.00 Bid-YTW : 4.87 % |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 2.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 22.89 Evaluated at bid price : 23.16 Bid-YTW : 5.72 % |
| FTS.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 2.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 22.07 Evaluated at bid price : 22.30 Bid-YTW : 5.34 % |
| PWF.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 2.64 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 24.19 Evaluated at bid price : 24.45 Bid-YTW : 5.67 % |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 3.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 21.90 Evaluated at bid price : 22.14 Bid-YTW : 5.55 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| PWF.PR.Z | Perpetual-Discount | 207,071 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 22.36 Evaluated at bid price : 22.75 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| TD.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 155,675 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-10-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.00 Bid-YTW : 4.26 % |
| BN.PF.H | FixedReset Prem | 66,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.24 Bid-YTW : 4.30 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 65,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 18.68 Evaluated at bid price : 18.68 Bid-YTW : 5.94 % |
| GWO.PR.G | Insurance Straight | 54,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 23.12 Evaluated at bid price : 23.38 Bid-YTW : 5.64 % |
| BN.PR.K | Floater | 37,200 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-22 Maturity Price : 12.75 Evaluated at bid price : 12.75 Bid-YTW : 6.93 % |
| There were 9 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| MFC.PR.F | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 18.26 – 19.90 Spot Rate : 1.6400 Average : 1.0489 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.00 – 21.99 Spot Rate : 1.9900 Average : 1.4945 YTW SCENARIO |
| BIP.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 23.00 – 25.25 Spot Rate : 2.2500 Average : 1.8083 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.J | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 25.10 – 26.10 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.6224 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.00 – 22.30 Spot Rate : 2.3000 Average : 1.9228 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 23.80 – 24.55 Spot Rate : 0.7500 Average : 0.4603 YTW SCENARIO |