The SURVEY OF CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS came out today:
August Survey: Inflation Expectations Up at Short-Term Horizon; Consumers’ Job Finding Expectations Drop to Series Low
Median inflation expectations ticked up 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 3.2 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon and were unchanged at 3.0 percent at the three-year-ahead and at 2.9 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon.
The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one’s current job was lost fell markedly by 5.8 ppt to 44.9 percent, the lowest reading since the start of the series in June 2013.
Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased by 1.7 ppt to 39.1 percent. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months ticked up by 0.1 ppt to 14.5 percent.The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged for the second consecutive month at 2.9 percent in August. Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.1 ppt to 5.0 percent.
And the Fed has a new high-profile defender:
While many CEOs have stayed silent during President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve, hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin is speaking out about the dangers.
Trump risks “stoking both higher inflation and higher long-term rates” by undermining the independence of the Fed, Griffin co-wrote in an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal on Sunday titled “Trump’s risky game with the Fed.”
“The president’s strategy of publicly criticizing the Fed, suggesting the dismissal of governors and pressuring the central bank to adopt a more permissive stance towards inflation carries steep costs,” wrote Griffin, CEO of Citadel; and Anil Kashyap, a professor at the Chicago Booth Business School and a consultant to the Chicago Fed’s research department.
The duo warns that history shows how this strategy can backfire, including the Nixon-era pressure on the Fed in the 1970s that set the stage for the Great Stagflation crisis.
…
The warning represents a rare reprimand from a CEO at a time when many business leaders have tried to steer clear of publicly criticizing the president and others have gone out of their way to curry favor. Big bank CEOs publicly defended Fed independence this summer, while avoiding criticizing Trump directly.Griffin, who has said he voted for Trump in last November’s election, has repeatedly slammed the administration’s trade war.
LCS.PR.A closed at 11.94 today, +3.38%, erasing over half of Friday’s loss … and providing a textbook illustration of the term “market impact”. But fear not, investment professional bonus fans! Friday’s trading will have resulted in a selling price for the position not very far from the VWAP on that day; therefore the trading was perfect; the trader and the portfolio manager (assuming these are different people) have nothing to be blamed for … even assuming the boss notices.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 6.69 % | 7.12 % | 40,969 | 13.33 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 2,459.7 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0500 % | 4,674.5 |
| Floater | 6.50 % | 6.88 % | 54,047 | 12.60 | 3 | 0.0500 % | 2,694.0 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1524 % | 3,638.9 |
| SplitShare | 4.81 % | 4.64 % | 59,413 | 3.41 | 6 | 0.1524 % | 4,345.6 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1524 % | 3,390.6 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.49 % | 4.92 % | 72,023 | 14.04 | 3 | -0.1190 % | 3,073.1 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.55 % | 5.67 % | 43,329 | 14.32 | 28 | 0.4623 % | 3,387.7 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.90 % | 6.03 % | 113,985 | 13.56 | 32 | 0.1843 % | 3,037.3 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.46 % | 5.44 % | 54,407 | 14.68 | 18 | 0.0245 % | 3,316.0 |
| FloatingReset | 5.07 % | 4.48 % | 42,203 | 0.14 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 3,811.0 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.66 % | 5.15 % | 122,405 | 2.43 | 21 | -0.0130 % | 2,627.6 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1843 % | 3,104.7 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.24 % | 5.42 % | 68,998 | 14.56 | 15 | 0.0845 % | 3,056.2 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | -2.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 21.04 Evaluated at bid price : 21.04 Bid-YTW : 5.30 % |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -1.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 21.36 Evaluated at bid price : 21.36 Bid-YTW : 5.29 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 23.33 Evaluated at bid price : 24.63 Bid-YTW : 5.54 % |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.90 Evaluated at bid price : 24.05 Bid-YTW : 5.28 % |
| BN.PF.I | FixedReset Prem | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-03-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.30 Bid-YTW : 5.31 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 20.80 Evaluated at bid price : 20.80 Bid-YTW : 5.45 % |
| CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.34 Evaluated at bid price : 22.61 Bid-YTW : 5.53 % |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 2.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 23.91 Evaluated at bid price : 24.15 Bid-YTW : 5.47 % |
| ENB.PR.N | FixedReset Disc | 2.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.95 Evaluated at bid price : 24.01 Bid-YTW : 5.92 % |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 2.27 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.22 Evaluated at bid price : 22.50 Bid-YTW : 5.47 % |
| CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 2.57 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.49 Evaluated at bid price : 22.75 Bid-YTW : 5.41 % |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | 2.81 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 20.15 Evaluated at bid price : 20.15 Bid-YTW : 6.26 % |
| SLF.PR.E | Insurance Straight | 3.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 21.45 Evaluated at bid price : 21.45 Bid-YTW : 5.26 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | 87,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 21.34 Evaluated at bid price : 21.61 Bid-YTW : 5.62 % |
| FTS.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | 68,200 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 22.64 Evaluated at bid price : 23.59 Bid-YTW : 5.62 % |
| BN.PR.K | Floater | 39,600 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 12.89 Evaluated at bid price : 12.89 Bid-YTW : 6.88 % |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 36,600 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 20.08 Evaluated at bid price : 20.08 Bid-YTW : 6.27 % |
| BN.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | 36,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-08 Maturity Price : 23.10 Evaluated at bid price : 24.01 Bid-YTW : 6.11 % |
| FFH.PR.G | FixedReset Prem | 29,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-10-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.13 Bid-YTW : 4.66 % |
| There were 10 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 24.15 – 25.00 Spot Rate : 0.8500 Average : 0.5696 YTW SCENARIO |
| RY.PR.O | Perpetual-Premium | Quote: 25.01 – 25.50 Spot Rate : 0.4900 Average : 0.2764 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 25.00 – 25.64 Spot Rate : 0.6400 Average : 0.4265 YTW SCENARIO |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.04 – 21.80 Spot Rate : 0.7600 Average : 0.5476 YTW SCENARIO |
| PVS.PR.L | SplitShare | Quote: 25.90 – 26.90 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.8059 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.36 – 21.98 Spot Rate : 0.6200 Average : 0.4570 YTW SCENARIO |