A new Survey of Consumer Expectations is out:
September Survey: Inflation Expectations Tick Up at Short- and Longer-Term Horizons; Labor Market Expectations Deteriorate
- Median inflation expectations increased at the one-year-ahead horizon to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent and at the five-year-ahead horizon to 3.0 percent from 2.9 percent. They remained steady at the three-year-ahead horizon at 3.0 percent. The increase in the year-ahead measure was largest for those with at most a high school education and those with household incomes under $50,000.
- Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreased by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 2.4 percent in September, the lowest reading since April 2021.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—increased 2.0 ppts to 41.1 percent.
- The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months increased by 0.4 ppt to 14.9 percent, above the trailing twelve-month average of 14.1 percent.
I’ve been spending my programming time recently speeding up HIMIPref™ and stumbled across the following interesting comparison of access times for data in various places:
| L1 cache reference | 0.5 ns |
| Branch mispredict | 5 ns |
| L2 cache reference | 7 ns |
| Mutex lock/unlock | 100 ns (25) |
| Main memory reference | 100 ns |
| Compress 1K bytes with Zippy | 10,000 ns (3,000) |
| Send 2K bytes over 1 Gbps network | 20,000 ns |
| Read 1 MB sequentially from memory | 250,000 ns |
| Round trip within same datacenter | 500,000 ns |
| Disk seek | 10,000,000 ns |
| Read 1 MB sequentially from network | 10,000,000 ns |
| Read 1 MB sequentially from disk | 30,000,000 ns (20,000,000) |
| Send packet CA->Netherlands->CA | 150,000,000 ns |
… which is kind of cool. Puts things in perspective! They also have L3 cache, nowadays, that services all the cores on the CPU, not just one; and even, so I am informed, L4 cache!
Which reminds me of a funny story. The nineties was an interesting time to be buying computers, which I was doing for my prior employer, since everything about them was changing at breakneck speed; performance bottlenecks were shifting kaleidoscopically every time you looked. So I read PC Magazine every month and tried to keep up with what was going on; at one point, PC Mag concluded that for computationally intensive work (like we were doing) the most usual bottleneck had become the speed of the L2 cache. If I remember correctly, the speed of the good kind at the time was 15ns.
So next time I ordered a (small) batch of computers and asked my salesman for quotes, I asked what the speed of the L2 cache was. Silence. He obviously had no idea what that was and eventually told me he’d have to call his vendor and get back to me.
We needed the order filled! So I called him up (a few days? a week?) later and asked about the speed of the L2 cache was on the machines he was quoting.
He got mad and snapped “Look, James, it’s fast, OK?”
Shortly afterwards we changed computer vendors.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 6.67 % | 7.11 % | 27,166 | 13.38 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 2,428.3 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2294 % | 4,598.5 |
| Floater | 6.27 % | 6.56 % | 54,064 | 13.13 | 3 | 0.2294 % | 2,650.2 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0000 % | 3,654.3 |
| SplitShare | 4.78 % | 4.53 % | 66,668 | 3.34 | 5 | 0.0000 % | 4,364.0 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0000 % | 3,405.0 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.49 % | 4.80 % | 82,796 | 0.09 | 8 | 0.0494 % | 3,097.9 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.60 % | 5.65 % | 46,596 | 14.38 | 26 | -0.4586 % | 3,370.3 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.98 % | 6.01 % | 113,980 | 13.71 | 30 | 0.2779 % | 3,052.7 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.49 % | 5.54 % | 53,256 | 14.60 | 21 | 0.8478 % | 3,309.9 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2779 % | 3,631.5 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.63 % | 4.81 % | 128,549 | 2.81 | 22 | -0.0336 % | 2,632.3 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2779 % | 3,120.5 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.22 % | 5.36 % | 53,801 | 14.53 | 15 | 0.0871 % | 3,069.5 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -13.88 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 18.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.00 Bid-YTW : 6.35 % |
| PWF.PR.Z | Perpetual-Discount | -1.81 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 22.46 Evaluated at bid price : 22.75 Bid-YTW : 5.76 % |
| ELF.PR.F | Insurance Straight | -1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 22.98 Evaluated at bid price : 23.25 Bid-YTW : 5.71 % |
| GWO.PR.G | Insurance Straight | -1.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.20 Evaluated at bid price : 23.50 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
| IFC.PR.E | Insurance Straight | -1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.47 Evaluated at bid price : 23.75 Bid-YTW : 5.50 % |
| NA.PR.K | FixedReset Prem | -1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-05-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 27.71 Bid-YTW : 4.79 % |
| BN.PF.F | FixedReset Disc | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 22.76 Evaluated at bid price : 23.80 Bid-YTW : 5.96 % |
| POW.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 22.35 Evaluated at bid price : 22.62 Bid-YTW : 5.54 % |
| NA.PR.G | FixedReset Prem | 1.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-11-16 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.55 Bid-YTW : 4.66 % |
| GWO.PR.L | Insurance Straight | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-11-06 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.20 Bid-YTW : -2.73 % |
| POW.PR.C | Perpetual-Premium | 1.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-11-06 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.45 Bid-YTW : -16.73 % |
| GWO.PR.Q | Insurance Straight | 1.43 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 22.39 Evaluated at bid price : 22.65 Bid-YTW : 5.72 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.71 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.41 Evaluated at bid price : 21.41 Bid-YTW : 5.24 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 2.85 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.35 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 6.13 % |
| IFC.PR.F | Insurance Straight | 3.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.31 Evaluated at bid price : 23.60 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | 3.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.59 Evaluated at bid price : 21.85 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 7.27 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 20.07 Evaluated at bid price : 20.07 Bid-YTW : 5.74 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | 8.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.67 Evaluated at bid price : 21.92 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| GWO.PR.Z | Perpetual-Premium | 107,872 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2034-09-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.50 Bid-YTW : 5.48 % |
| ENB.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | 57,200 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.48 Evaluated at bid price : 21.78 Bid-YTW : 6.39 % |
| ENB.PF.K | FixedReset Disc | 53,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.46 Evaluated at bid price : 24.91 Bid-YTW : 6.01 % |
| GWO.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | 50,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 17.65 Evaluated at bid price : 17.65 Bid-YTW : 5.74 % |
| BMO.PR.E | FixedReset Prem | 41,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-11-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 26.70 Bid-YTW : 4.77 % |
| ENB.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 38,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.38 Evaluated at bid price : 21.38 Bid-YTW : 6.43 % |
| There were 16 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 18.00 – 20.94 Spot Rate : 2.9400 Average : 1.6916 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.G | Insurance Straight | Quote: 23.50 – 25.00 Spot Rate : 1.5000 Average : 0.9987 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 19.90 – 20.95 Spot Rate : 1.0500 Average : 0.7122 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 22.09 – 23.00 Spot Rate : 0.9100 Average : 0.7057 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.Z | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 22.75 – 23.35 Spot Rate : 0.6000 Average : 0.4262 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 19.90 – 20.65 Spot Rate : 0.7500 Average : 0.5877 YTW SCENARIO |