Market Action

August 21, 2019

There was good news for Poloz in today’s inflation numbers:

The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, recovering from a two-month low it hit the previous day after stronger-than-expected domestic inflation data, but earlier gains were capped as the greenback rallied broadly.

The U.S. dollar gained against a basket of currencies after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that policy-makers were united in wanting to avoid the appearance of being on the path to further rate cuts.

Canada’s annual inflation rate held steady in July at 2 per cent as lower costs for services were offset by higher prices for durable goods. Analysts had expected the annual rate to fall to 1.7 per cent from 2 per cent in June.

Canada’s retail sales data is due on Friday, with a Reuters poll forecasting a 0.1 per cent decrease, which could help guide expectations about the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision.

Canadian government bond prices were lower across the yield curve, with the two-year down 10 cents to yield 1.395 per cent and the 10-year falling 53 cents to yield 1.213 per cent.

Each of the mainstream indicators made a new 52-week low today. This is getting monotonous.

TXPR closed at 575.08, down 0.41% on the day after touching a new 52-week low of 574.94. Volume was 2.44-million, above average but nothing special in the context of the past 30 days.

CPD closed at 11.50, a new 52-week low and down 0.26% on the day. Volume of 73,613 was above median and nothing special in the context of the past 30 days.

ZPR closed at 9.15, a new 52-week low and down 0.11% on the day. Volume of 163,912 was a little above average but nothing special in the context of the past 30 days.

Five-year Canada yields were up 8bp to 1.28% today.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.58%, equivalent to 7.25% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 3.15%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has widened to an eye-popping 410bp, a new post-Credit Crunch record (second only to the 445bp recorded November 26, 2008, a day on which

The TXPR index was down 5.94% on the BCE news.

) and a slight (and possibly spurious) widening from the 405bp the reported August 14.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.2115 % 1,761.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.2115 % 3,231.5
Floater 6.78 % 7.03 % 41,782 12.42 4 -1.2115 % 1,862.3
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4000 % 3,364.6
SplitShare 4.68 % 4.58 % 63,063 4.10 7 0.4000 % 4,018.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4000 % 3,135.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.64 % -4.73 % 64,392 0.09 9 -0.1233 % 2,969.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.51 % 5.58 % 54,682 14.50 25 -0.4646 % 3,092.5
FixedReset Disc 5.99 % 5.61 % 152,251 14.49 66 -0.4109 % 1,946.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.30 % 6.14 % 65,508 7.84 27 -0.0384 % 3,079.0
FloatingReset 4.76 % 7.56 % 61,878 7.85 3 -0.0617 % 2,232.3
FixedReset Prem 5.22 % 4.95 % 170,782 1.90 21 -0.0910 % 2,553.9
FixedReset Bank Non 2.00 % 4.56 % 89,175 2.37 3 -0.1261 % 2,635.9
FixedReset Ins Non 5.67 % 8.23 % 101,606 7.96 21 -0.3749 % 2,024.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc -2.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.53
Evaluated at bid price : 15.53
Bid-YTW : 7.14 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc -2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 16.60
Evaluated at bid price : 16.60
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
NA.PR.G FixedReset Disc -2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -2.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 23.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
EMA.PR.C FixedReset Disc -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 16.72
Evaluated at bid price : 16.72
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.51
Bid-YTW : 8.23 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.63
Bid-YTW : 8.48 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.51
Evaluated at bid price : 15.51
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 17.02
Evaluated at bid price : 17.02
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.36
Bid-YTW : 10.90 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 17.71
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc -1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.75
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 14.70
Evaluated at bid price : 14.70
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 16.55
Evaluated at bid price : 16.55
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 10.76
Evaluated at bid price : 10.76
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.30
Evaluated at bid price : 15.30
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %
BNS.PR.I FixedReset Disc -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 18.90
Evaluated at bid price : 18.90
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.80
Evaluated at bid price : 15.80
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 10.00
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 10.00
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 23.96
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 20.12
Evaluated at bid price : 20.12
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.03
Evaluated at bid price : 15.03
Bid-YTW : 5.82 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 10.01
Evaluated at bid price : 10.01
Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 9.86
Evaluated at bid price : 9.86
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.62
Bid-YTW : 8.89 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 19.07
Evaluated at bid price : 19.07
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 16.80
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 7.17 %
CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.96
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset Disc 4.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 11.20
Evaluated at bid price : 11.20
Bid-YTW : 6.53 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 95,713 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.40
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 92,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 18.96
Evaluated at bid price : 18.96
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 63,745 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.87
Evaluated at bid price : 15.87
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc 41,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.30
Evaluated at bid price : 15.30
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Disc 38,649 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 38,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.75
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
There were 39 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.02 – 20.69
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.4396

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.53 – 16.01
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.2868

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.53
Evaluated at bid price : 15.53
Bid-YTW : 7.14 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 19.73 – 20.13
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2640

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %

EMA.PR.F FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.30 – 15.80
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3742

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 15.30
Evaluated at bid price : 15.30
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %

BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.95 – 24.34
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2683

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2049-08-21
Maturity Price : 23.51
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 12.36 – 12.86
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3795

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.36
Bid-YTW : 10.90 %

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