Another day, more confusion:
Oil prices fell 6% on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages, though investors remain wary about the outcome of peace talks as disruption to Middle Eastern supply continues. Brent crude futures fell $6.64, or 5.97%, to $104.64 a barrel by 1:45 p.m. EDT (1745 GMT) and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were down $6.49, or 6.23%, at $97.66.
Trump said that negotiations with Iran were in the final stages but warned of further attacks unless Iran agrees to a deal. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Iran was ready to develop protocols for safe shipping traffic in cooperation with other coastal states, without providing further details.
Despite signs of progress, some market participants and analysts remain wary about the outcome of negotiations and global supply tightness that will likely persist even if the U.S. and Iran reach a deal.
“You’ve got to take all these pronouncements with a grain of salt these days, but the market was also quick to reward it and price in the hope of a resolution,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital.
A grain of salt? I need a whole block.
None the less, the end of the world that was scheduled by the bond market yesterday has been cancelled:
Yields on U.S. Treasuries on Wednesday retraced their previous day’s gains, after President Donald Trump said deal talks with Iran were in their final stage.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was last down roughly 10 basis points on the day at 4.567%. It reached its highest level since January 2025 on Tuesday, surging to 4.687%.
The 30-year Treasury bond’s yield, which is seen as a barometer of geopolitical and fiscal risk, was last down roughly 7 bps at 5.113%. It briefly touched 5.197% on Tuesday, its highest since July 2007 before the global financial crisis.
But a relatively strong 20-year Japanese bond auction prompted yields to retrace their gains. Yields solidified their retreat later on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s comments that deal talks with Iran were in their final stages.
…
Investors are now pricing in a 41.4% chance the Fed could raise rates in December, and an 89.6% chance it maintains current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4347 % | 2,555.2 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.4347 % | 4,845.0 |
| Floater | 5.62 % | 5.84 % | 44,098 | 14.10 | 3 | 0.4347 % | 2,792.2 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0628 % | 3,668.2 |
| SplitShare | 4.75 % | 4.47 % | 53,303 | 2.80 | 5 | 0.0628 % | 4,380.6 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0628 % | 3,417.9 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.76 % | 4.79 % | 54,643 | 0.08 | 3 | 0.0793 % | 3,049.7 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.62 % | 5.67 % | 52,883 | 14.34 | 30 | 0.2126 % | 3,351.4 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.61 % | 6.01 % | 101,466 | 13.68 | 24 | 0.6520 % | 3,322.3 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.47 % | 5.59 % | 52,436 | 14.42 | 22 | 0.3629 % | 3,297.9 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.6520 % | 3,952.2 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.98 % | 4.47 % | 84,551 | 2.29 | 24 | 0.0434 % | 2,653.0 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.6520 % | 3,396.1 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.04 % | 5.37 % | 74,799 | 2.15 | 14 | 0.5004 % | 3,277.0 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| TD.PF.I | FixedReset Prem | -1.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-10-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.76 Bid-YTW : 4.38 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | -1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 21.33 Evaluated at bid price : 21.60 Bid-YTW : 5.69 % |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 21.47 Evaluated at bid price : 21.73 Bid-YTW : 5.25 % |
| BN.PF.A | FixedReset Prem | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-09-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.81 Bid-YTW : 5.72 % |
| FTS.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 1.35 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 22.17 Evaluated at bid price : 22.45 Bid-YTW : 5.30 % |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 22.12 Evaluated at bid price : 22.40 Bid-YTW : 5.26 % |
| POW.PR.B | Perpetual-Discount | 1.44 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 23.70 Evaluated at bid price : 23.97 Bid-YTW : 5.64 % |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 1.47 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 23.44 Bid-YTW : 5.64 % |
| MFC.PR.I | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-09-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.98 Bid-YTW : 3.74 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 21.47 Evaluated at bid price : 21.73 Bid-YTW : 5.18 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | 1.54 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 21.54 Evaluated at bid price : 21.80 Bid-YTW : 5.17 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.57 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 21.30 Evaluated at bid price : 21.30 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| ENB.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | 1.74 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 22.58 Evaluated at bid price : 23.40 Bid-YTW : 6.27 % |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-06-20 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.55 Bid-YTW : 5.37 % |
| ENB.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 2.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 22.64 Evaluated at bid price : 23.55 Bid-YTW : 6.21 % |
| ENB.PR.J | FixedReset Disc | 2.58 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 23.11 Evaluated at bid price : 24.23 Bid-YTW : 6.11 % |
| BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 2.95 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 21.33 Evaluated at bid price : 21.62 Bid-YTW : 6.00 % |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | 3.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 23.37 Evaluated at bid price : 23.70 Bid-YTW : 6.16 % |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 3.44 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 22.16 Evaluated at bid price : 22.86 Bid-YTW : 6.13 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | 65,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-06-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.06 Bid-YTW : 4.82 % |
| ENB.PR.D | FixedReset Disc | 35,700 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 22.65 Evaluated at bid price : 23.01 Bid-YTW : 6.20 % |
| BN.PF.I | FixedReset Prem | 35,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-03-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.40 Bid-YTW : 4.39 % |
| FTS.PR.M | FixedReset Prem | 30,800 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-12-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.21 Bid-YTW : 5.21 % |
| PWF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 26,031 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-20 Maturity Price : 24.66 Evaluated at bid price : 24.92 Bid-YTW : 5.82 % |
| BN.PF.J | FixedReset Prem | 25,011 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.90 Bid-YTW : 4.47 % |
| There were 10 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | Quote: 22.90 – 25.00 Spot Rate : 2.1000 Average : 1.4680 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 20.84 – 21.54 Spot Rate : 0.7000 Average : 0.4236 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.60 – 22.20 Spot Rate : 0.6000 Average : 0.4139 YTW SCENARIO |
| TD.PF.I | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 25.76 – 26.10 Spot Rate : 0.3400 Average : 0.2075 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.96 – 21.39 Spot Rate : 0.4300 Average : 0.3204 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 24.97 – 25.25 Spot Rate : 0.2800 Average : 0.1715 YTW SCENARIO |