The BoC has released a Staff Analytical Paper by Felipe Alves, William Beaudoin, Hélène Desgagnés, Wei Dong, Jan David Schneider, Eugene Trostin, Argyn Toktamyssov and Hannes Twieling titled Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2026 update:
This paper presents Bank of Canada staff’s current assessment of the US and Canadian neutral rates of interest. The neutral rate is where the Bank expects the policy rate would settle once output is at its long-run potential level and inflation is at target, after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated (Mendes 2014). The Bank does not target the neutral rate, but this is an important input for its economic projections.
We assess the Canadian nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from our assessment in 2025. We assess the US nominal neutral rate to be in the range of 2.50% to 3.50%, somewhat higher than the range of 2.25% to 3.25% reported in the 2025 assessment.
- • In Canada, lower long-term population growth offsets higher long-term productivity growth (Chernoff et al. 2026).
- • In the United States, the revision is explained by a stronger outlook for potential
output growth (de Munnik et al. 2026).The neutral rate of interest is unobservable and inferred from the evolution of the factors that influence it, such as potential output growth and the balance between global savings and investment. Measuring the neutral rate involves considerable uncertainty. Staff’s assessed ranges reflect the uncertainty inherent in the inputs used in the model, but they do not capture the full extent of uncertainties surrounding the neutral rate in the United States and Canada.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.2028 % | 2,584.7 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.2028 % | 4,900.9 |
| Floater | 5.55 % | 5.85 % | 40,582 | 14.07 | 3 | 1.2028 % | 2,824.4 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1587 % | 3,634.5 |
| SplitShare | 4.79 % | 4.35 % | 52,592 | 2.81 | 5 | 0.1587 % | 4,340.3 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1587 % | 3,386.5 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.76 % | 5.70 % | 63,579 | 6.59 | 3 | -0.1187 % | 3,051.3 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.60 % | 5.67 % | 51,948 | 14.34 | 30 | 0.2890 % | 3,361.8 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.59 % | 5.85 % | 97,549 | 13.94 | 24 | 0.7961 % | 3,332.3 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.46 % | 5.58 % | 51,439 | 14.41 | 22 | 0.4024 % | 3,300.2 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.7961 % | 3,964.1 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.97 % | 4.49 % | 88,007 | 2.28 | 24 | 0.0787 % | 2,656.2 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.7961 % | 3,406.2 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.05 % | 5.31 % | 80,649 | 3.19 | 14 | 0.1291 % | 3,274.2 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | -2.84 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.57 Evaluated at bid price : 25.00 Bid-YTW : 5.75 % |
| POW.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | -1.89 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 22.10 Evaluated at bid price : 22.32 Bid-YTW : 5.67 % |
| BN.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | -1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 20.64 Evaluated at bid price : 20.64 Bid-YTW : 5.86 % |
| GWO.PR.M | Insurance Straight | 1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2026-06-24 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.60 Bid-YTW : -12.35 % |
| ENB.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 22.49 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 5.98 % |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 22.04 Evaluated at bid price : 22.27 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| FTS.PR.G | FixedReset Prem | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.62 Evaluated at bid price : 25.30 Bid-YTW : 5.24 % |
| ENB.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | 1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 22.76 Evaluated at bid price : 23.75 Bid-YTW : 5.98 % |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 1.38 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.19 Evaluated at bid price : 23.49 Bid-YTW : 5.64 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | 1.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 21.55 Evaluated at bid price : 21.81 Bid-YTW : 5.17 % |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | 1.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.53 Evaluated at bid price : 23.85 Bid-YTW : 5.91 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 21.35 Evaluated at bid price : 21.62 Bid-YTW : 5.21 % |
| ENB.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.73 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 22.61 Evaluated at bid price : 23.50 Bid-YTW : 6.04 % |
| PWF.PF.A | Perpetual-Discount | 1.82 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 20.16 Evaluated at bid price : 20.16 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | 1.88 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 21.38 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 5.59 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | 1.89 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 21.87 Evaluated at bid price : 22.11 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.47 Evaluated at bid price : 25.31 Bid-YTW : 5.31 % |
| ENB.PR.J | FixedReset Disc | 2.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.12 Evaluated at bid price : 24.25 Bid-YTW : 5.90 % |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 3.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 24.09 Evaluated at bid price : 24.35 Bid-YTW : 5.40 % |
| PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | 3.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 21.42 Evaluated at bid price : 21.42 Bid-YTW : 5.53 % |
| PWF.PR.A | Floater | 3.45 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 15.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.00 Bid-YTW : 5.23 % |
| BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 9.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 21.54 Evaluated at bid price : 21.90 Bid-YTW : 5.66 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 27,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 21.30 Evaluated at bid price : 21.30 Bid-YTW : 5.32 % |
| PWF.PR.A | Floater | 20,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 15.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.00 Bid-YTW : 5.23 % |
| FFH.PR.K | FixedReset Prem | 16,500 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-03-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.31 Bid-YTW : 4.49 % |
| ENB.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 14,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.26 Evaluated at bid price : 24.69 Bid-YTW : 5.79 % |
| ENB.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 13,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.07 Evaluated at bid price : 23.95 Bid-YTW : 5.58 % |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | 11,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-05-25 Maturity Price : 23.57 Evaluated at bid price : 25.00 Bid-YTW : 5.75 % |
| There were 1 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| NA.PR.C | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 26.20 – 27.20 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.5989 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.I | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 26.09 – 27.09 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.6197 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 25.00 – 25.91 Spot Rate : 0.9100 Average : 0.5519 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.M | Insurance Straight | Quote: 25.60 – 27.00 Spot Rate : 1.4000 Average : 1.0597 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | Quote: 22.60 – 25.00 Spot Rate : 2.4000 Average : 2.1323 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 25.02 – 26.02 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.7507 YTW SCENARIO |