The New York Fed has released the September Survey of Consumer Expectations:
September Survey: Inflation Expectations Up at Short- and Medium-Term, Unchanged at Longer-Term Horizons; Labor Market Expectations Mostly Improve
- Median inflation expectations increased by 0.3 percentage point (ppt) at the one-year horizon and by 0.1 ppt at the three-year horizon, to 3.9 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. This is the highest reading for one-year-ahead inflation expectations since May 2023. Expectations remained unchanged at the five-year-ahead horizon at 3.0 percent.
- Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.5 ppt to 43.9 percent but remained above the 12-month trailing average of 42.4 percent. The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next twelve months decreased by 0.3 ppt to 13.5 percent, the lowest reading since December 2024.
- The median expected growth in household income increased by 0.1 ppt to 3.1 percent, the highest reading since February 2025. Median one-year-ahead nominal household spending growth expectations increased by 0.3 ppt to 5.5 percent, above the 12-month trailing average of 5.0 percent and the highest reading of the series since May 2023.
- Perceptions and expectations about households’ financial situations both deteriorated, with larger shares of households reporting a worse financial situation compared to a year ago and expecting a worse financial situation a year from now.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0000 % | 2,777.3 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0000 % | 5,230.1 |
| Floater | 5.28 % | 5.31 % | 29,848 | 15.00 | 2 | 0.0000 % | 3,014.1 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1598 % | 3,611.1 |
| SplitShare | 4.68 % | 5.29 % | 50,048 | 1.34 | 4 | -0.1598 % | 4,312.5 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1598 % | 3,364.8 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1942 % | 2,980.5 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.87 % | 5.96 % | 47,641 | 13.89 | 32 | 0.1942 % | 3,207.1 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.73 % | 6.28 % | 87,898 | 13.24 | 24 | 0.3033 % | 3,345.6 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.78 % | 5.86 % | 65,664 | 14.13 | 19 | 0.3744 % | 3,113.3 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3033 % | 4,085.0 |
| FixedReset Prem | 6.00 % | 5.09 % | 80,557 | 1.98 | 24 | 0.0486 % | 2,629.6 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3033 % | 3,419.9 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.62 % | 5.74 % | 52,818 | 13.79 | 13 | 0.4534 % | 3,240.0 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| NA.PR.E | FixedReset Prem | -3.61 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.53 Evaluated at bid price : 24.59 Bid-YTW : 6.24 % |
| ENB.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | -1.92 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 22.26 Evaluated at bid price : 23.02 Bid-YTW : 6.59 % |
| ENB.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.50 Evaluated at bid price : 23.84 Bid-YTW : 6.17 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2030-04-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.35 Bid-YTW : 6.09 % |
| BN.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.30 Bid-YTW : 5.20 % |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 22.57 Evaluated at bid price : 23.52 Bid-YTW : 6.17 % |
| CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.51 Evaluated at bid price : 21.51 Bid-YTW : 5.86 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 19.99 Evaluated at bid price : 19.99 Bid-YTW : 5.61 % |
| GWO.PR.M | Insurance Straight | 1.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 24.55 Evaluated at bid price : 24.80 Bid-YTW : 5.88 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 19.40 Evaluated at bid price : 19.40 Bid-YTW : 5.88 % |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.42 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.64 Evaluated at bid price : 24.92 Bid-YTW : 6.20 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | 2.00 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 20.41 Evaluated at bid price : 20.41 Bid-YTW : 5.93 % |
| MFC.PR.F | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 21.36 Evaluated at bid price : 21.66 Bid-YTW : 5.74 % |
| IFC.PR.A | FixedReset Ins Non | 3.88 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.09 Evaluated at bid price : 23.58 Bid-YTW : 5.67 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| MFC.PR.L | FixedReset Ins Non | 232,938 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 23.20 Evaluated at bid price : 24.41 Bid-YTW : 5.95 % |
| FTS.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 150,484 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 20.50 Evaluated at bid price : 20.50 Bid-YTW : 6.04 % |
| NA.PR.S | FixedReset Prem | 110,725 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-05-15 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.75 Bid-YTW : 4.73 % |
| CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 100,800 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 20.87 Evaluated at bid price : 20.87 Bid-YTW : 5.95 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | 76,960 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-07 Maturity Price : 19.91 Evaluated at bid price : 19.91 Bid-YTW : 5.63 % |
| BN.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | 56,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2030-07-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.55 Bid-YTW : 6.28 % |
| There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | Quote: 20.65 – 22.79 Spot Rate : 2.1400 Average : 1.2142 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 22.54 – 23.98 Spot Rate : 1.4400 Average : 0.8700 YTW SCENARIO |
| POW.PR.B | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 22.91 – 24.13 Spot Rate : 1.2200 Average : 0.7420 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 24.40 – 25.40 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.6238 YTW SCENARIO |
| NA.PR.E | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 24.59 – 25.59 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.6572 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.F | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 21.66 – 22.90 Spot Rate : 1.2400 Average : 0.9320 YTW SCENARIO |