The annual pace of inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in September as war in the Middle East continued to drive up gas prices, Statistics Canada said Monday.
The agency said the acceleration was led by a 27.8-per-cent spike in gasoline prices last month compared with a year earlier, despite the switch to the less expensive winter gas blend.
Excluding gasoline, consumer prices increased 2.2 per cent year-over-year in September.
…
Meanwhile, grocery prices increased 1.7 per cent last month, the smallest yearly increase since May 2024, according to Statistics Canada.Driving the slowdown was a 2.9-per-cent drop in prices for fresh vegetables, while sugar and confectionary items fell 2.7 per cent.
Beef prices, meanwhile, rose at a slower pace in September, up 8.7 per cent compared with an 11 per cent increase in August.
Despite the year-over-year slowdown, the agency said prices for groceries have increased 33 per cent since September 2020.
…
During a media roundtable from Thailand on Saturday, Macklem warned that persistently high energy prices were increasing the risk of broader inflation and that the central bank was prepared to raise rates if necessary.He said the prevailing message from his peers at the International Monetary Fund meetings in Bangkok was that the global economy has been performing better than expected in the face of ongoing wars in Iran and Ukraine, sweeping trade disruptions and higher borrowing costs from rising bond yields.
But Macklem also said that resilience is increasingly “under strain” as shocks like the Middle East conflict persist and drive up energy prices.
Some of those sources of resilience – like releasing global oil reserves – are being depleted, he said.
“You can only release strategic energy, oil reserves so many times, but that has helped contain this energy price shock,” Macklem said.
Money markets are pricing in strong odds that the Bank of Canada will hike its key lending rate next week, in a major rethink of interest rate probabilities ignited mostly by governor Tiff Macklem’s hawkish comments on the weekend. The repricing weighed on Canada’s equity market Monday while sending domestic bond yields sharply higher.
Implied interest rate probabilities in overnight index swaps markets suggest a 75 per cent chance there will be a quarter point rate hike by the bank on Oct. 28, according to Bloomberg data. The market is positioned for an overnight rate of 2.455 per cent at the conclusion of next week’s policy decision, rising to 2.614 per cent by the Dec. 9 decision. The current overnight rate is 2.25 per cent.
That’s a considerable swing from just last week, when markets were pricing in less than 50 per cent odds of a rate hike this coming week, even though they were putting strong odds on a hike by the December meeting.
…
Canadian bond yields today are reflecting the reassessment of interest rate move odds. The 2-year yield, sensitive to central bank policy, is up 14 basis points in afternoon trading. That’s four times the move higher today in the equivalent U.S. Treasury, and a large move in one day for bond markets.The five-year yield – closely watched for its impact on fixed mortgage rates – is up by the same amount, now back to where it started this month after trending lower over the last couple of weeks.
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For its part, the TSX underperformed U.S. indexes, with the interest rate sensitive utilities sector among the worst performers, losing 1.4 per cent. Real estate lost 1.3 per cent.
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The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended down 247.92 points, or 0.7%, at 35,928.63, after posting its highest closing level in more than three weeks on Friday.
The Canada five-year bond closed at 3.68%, up 15bp on the day.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1020 % | 2,773.5 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1020 % | 5,223.0 |
| Floater | 5.29 % | 5.34 % | 26,582 | 14.94 | 2 | 0.1020 % | 3,010.0 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0400 % | 3,607.2 |
| SplitShare | 4.81 % | 5.34 % | 56,272 | 2.44 | 5 | -0.0400 % | 4,307.8 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0400 % | 3,361.1 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3240 % | 3,033.9 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.77 % | 5.82 % | 51,066 | 14.14 | 32 | 0.3240 % | 3,264.5 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.71 % | 6.27 % | 83,663 | 13.21 | 24 | 0.8150 % | 3,361.4 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.69 % | 5.74 % | 75,508 | 14.26 | 19 | 0.4289 % | 3,163.3 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.8150 % | 4,104.3 |
| FixedReset Prem | 6.00 % | 4.65 % | 82,573 | 1.94 | 24 | 0.2095 % | 2,628.6 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.8150 % | 3,436.0 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.57 % | 5.72 % | 51,444 | 4.30 | 13 | 0.2129 % | 3,271.3 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -7.59 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 6.02 % |
| GWO.PR.Z | Insurance Straight | -2.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 23.73 Evaluated at bid price : 24.09 Bid-YTW : 5.96 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.62 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 23.74 Evaluated at bid price : 24.95 Bid-YTW : 6.32 % |
| IFC.PR.F | Insurance Straight | -1.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 22.69 Evaluated at bid price : 22.93 Bid-YTW : 5.83 % |
| POW.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | -1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 23.60 Evaluated at bid price : 23.87 Bid-YTW : 5.90 % |
| GWO.PR.M | Insurance Straight | 1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2026-11-18 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.10 Bid-YTW : 4.63 % |
| PWF.PR.L | Perpetual-Discount | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 21.54 Evaluated at bid price : 21.80 Bid-YTW : 5.86 % |
| SLF.PR.H | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2031-09-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.31 Bid-YTW : 5.33 % |
| MFC.PR.F | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 21.37 Evaluated at bid price : 21.37 Bid-YTW : 5.88 % |
| NA.PR.K | FixedReset Prem | 1.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-05-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 28.30 Bid-YTW : 2.92 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | 1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 21.05 Evaluated at bid price : 21.05 Bid-YTW : 5.76 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | 1.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 21.38 Evaluated at bid price : 21.38 Bid-YTW : 5.73 % |
| CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 22.12 Evaluated at bid price : 22.40 Bid-YTW : 5.54 % |
| BIP.PR.F | FixedReset Prem | 1.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-01-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.55 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
| ENB.PR.J | FixedReset Disc | 1.40 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 23.34 Evaluated at bid price : 24.59 Bid-YTW : 6.36 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 1.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 20.35 Evaluated at bid price : 20.35 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | 1.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 23.09 Evaluated at bid price : 23.50 Bid-YTW : 6.60 % |
| ENB.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | 1.51 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 22.32 Evaluated at bid price : 22.79 Bid-YTW : 6.57 % |
| ENB.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | 1.87 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 22.93 Evaluated at bid price : 23.95 Bid-YTW : 6.53 % |
| ENB.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | 1.94 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 22.78 Evaluated at bid price : 23.70 Bid-YTW : 6.53 % |
| BN.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | 2.09 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 20.01 Evaluated at bid price : 20.01 Bid-YTW : 6.00 % |
| FTS.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 2.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 21.54 Evaluated at bid price : 21.80 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| ENB.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 2.57 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 23.63 Evaluated at bid price : 23.97 Bid-YTW : 6.18 % |
| GWO.PR.G | Insurance Straight | 3.57 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 22.97 Evaluated at bid price : 23.24 Bid-YTW : 5.64 % |
| BN.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | 4.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.08 Bid-YTW : 6.12 % |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 8.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 21.32 Evaluated at bid price : 21.32 Bid-YTW : 5.66 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | 106,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 19.62 Evaluated at bid price : 19.62 Bid-YTW : 5.80 % |
| MFC.PR.I | FixedReset Ins Non | 75,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2027-09-19 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.67 Bid-YTW : 3.56 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | 66,381 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 21.05 Evaluated at bid price : 21.05 Bid-YTW : 5.76 % |
| ENB.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | 60,400 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 22.32 Evaluated at bid price : 22.79 Bid-YTW : 6.57 % |
| PVS.PR.N | SplitShare | 58,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2033-09-29 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.98 Bid-YTW : 5.34 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 52,550 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2056-10-19 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 6.02 % |
| There were 2 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 19.00 – 21.10 Spot Rate : 2.1000 Average : 1.5219 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.S | Insurance Straight | Quote: 22.55 – 23.98 Spot Rate : 1.4300 Average : 0.9525 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.06 – 22.79 Spot Rate : 1.7300 Average : 1.4496 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.Z | Insurance Straight | Quote: 24.09 – 25.09 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.7572 YTW SCENARIO |
| ENB.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 23.95 – 24.99 Spot Rate : 1.0400 Average : 0.8154 YTW SCENARIO |
| POW.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 23.87 – 24.80 Spot Rate : 0.9300 Average : 0.7724 YTW SCENARIO |