PrefBlog

Well, I promised in a previous post that I’d write a few words about this issue: and the time has come!

According to the prospectus dated May 13, 1997, available on Bombardier’s website (good for them!), these issues are convertable into each other on August 1, 2007 and on the first of August every five years thereafter. In certain circumstances, conversion may be forced and there will be only one series outstanding.

BBD.PR.B is the “Series 2” and currently pays 100% of the Canadian Prime Rate, according to Bombardier’s website – there’s no direct link, so you have to poke around a little … what you want is Bombardier > Investor Relations > Share Information > Dividend Information > BBD.PR.B. Since the Canadian Prime Rate is now 6%, this translates to $1.50 on the face value of $25.00.

BBD.PR.D is the Series 3, and pays $1.369 p.a., which was set in 2002 and will be reset in 2007 to take effect August 1.

THEREFORE, according to Mr. Calculator, the Bs will pay about 13.1 cents p.a. more than the Ds, provided prime stays put, until the next reset date which is now less than 10 months away. Being more precise and taking account of ex-Dates, we find that the Bs have their next dividend ex-date on or about Nov 28, and at the end of each month until the end of next July, which is a total of 9 more payments of $0.125, total $1.125. The Ds will pay in January, March and July, $0.34225 a time, total $1.02675.

All the above assumes no default and no change in prime, of course! But we can basically say that from now until conversion, the Bs will pay about $0.10 more than the Ds, so, in full accordance with the Holy Efficient Market Hypowhatsit, should be priced about maybe approximately $0.10 higher, as adjusted for liquidity and discounting effects, not to mention the phase of the moon.

So let’s take a look at the quotes: BBD.PR.B was quoted at the close of business November 13 at $18.21-35. BBD.PR.D was quoted at the close of business November 13 at $16.80-84.

This is an absurd price spread. Clearly, a strategy that will work very well on paper, at the very least, is to short the BBD.PR.B and long the BBD.PR.D for a gross take-out of about maybe $1.40. What’s the profit?

OK, so it looks like there’s a $0.345 / share profit out there, just waiting to be grabbed, for anyone who wants to take it. The only constraint is how much you can get done without moving the price too much – a constraint I won’t attempt to play down! However, so far today, November 14, the Bs have traded 4,610 shares in a range of $18.31-35, while the Ds have traded 8,350 shares in a range of $16.75-81. So it would seem that there’s enough money available to be worth a ‘phone call.

 This strategy is credit neutral – if Bombardier goes bust in the next 9 months, then both your long and short are worthless, which is fine. And you don’t have to rely on the market to recognize the equality either – you can just convert one to the other next summer and your position will flatten out. All in all, it seems like a pretty good play for those who can short. Especially if you have a facility where you get paid interest on your cash collateral for the borrow!

 The major risk is of a short squeeze on the Bs, where you could be forced to buy back the short, perhaps at a greater spread to the Ds than that at which you entered the position. This is the risk of any short strategy – make up your own mind as to the likelihood of that. And never bet the house on ANYTHING. There’s lots of good ideas out there … do enough of them and the one’s that turn out well will pay for the ones that turn out badly, hopefully with a little bit extra tacked on.

I’m not doing this for clients at the moment: shorting is not currently something I “do”. Which, of course, is why I’m publishing the idea! Have a look, maybe it makes sense for your.

I’ve attached two graphs:

• Flat Bid Prices
• Difference in Flat Bid Prices

Have fun!

Update re short squeezes: According to the prospectus, conversion is effected by surrender of an actual certificate in the period 14-45 days prior to the actual conversion date. This could give rise to a short squeeze – IF a sufficient number of shareholders choose to convert from the higher priced issue shorted into the lower priced issue held … which doesn’t seem too likely, but worth mentioning.

Erk! Update re taxation: It was noted on Financial Webring Forum Financial Wisdom Forum [edited 2015-3-31] that there are tax effects on shorting dividend paying stocks in Canada … according to Blakes

Payments made to compensate a securities lender for dividends on a borrowed share of a Canadian issuer will generally not be deductible unless the securities borrower is a registered securities dealer in which case two thirds of the payment will generally be deductible;

Therefore, tax will be owing on the dividends received, but nothing may be deducted with respect to the dividends paid … at a marginal tax rate of 21% on the $1.12 received on the Bs, the tax loss due to dividends will be $0.235, which nearly wipes out the pre-tax profit all by itself.

The only hope for this strategy, then (in the absence of very fancy trading arrangements to skip over the dividends … and I will NOT opine on the admissability of such a strategy for tax purposes!) is to get paid on the cash collateral for the short, or to simply hope that the spread decreases faster than the nine-month maximum.

*Sigh* Tripped up by tax effects! That’s what happens when I step outside my specialty … but really, these things are Pfd-4 by DBRS so I wouldn’t want to go long … still, anybody who for any reason owns the Bs should give serious consideration to swapping into Ds … assuming they really want to own the name.

Further update re Tax: The relevent section of the Income Tax Act is 260(6)(a):

(6) In computing a taxpayer’s income under Part I from a business or property

(a) where the taxpayer is not a registered securities dealer, no deduction shall be made in respect of an amount that, if paid, would be deemed by subsection 260(5) to have been received by another person as a taxable dividend; and

(b) where the taxpayer is a registered securities dealer, no deduction shall be made in respect of more than 2/3 of that amount.

And please note that I am not a tax specialist! Consult your own tax advisor before making or not making any decision based on the above!

This member of the premiumPerpetual index slid into negative YTW territory, so let’s have a look at it.

The listing date was 1998-12-01 and it pays $1.375 annually on a par value of $25: 5.5%. The option schedule (as shown on the embeddedOptionsBox) is:

• Redemption      2003-12-02      2004-12-01  26.000000
• Redemption      2004-12-02      2005-12-01  25.750000
• Redemption      2005-12-02      2006-12-01  25.500000
• Redemption      2006-12-02      2007-12-01  25.250000
• Redemption      2007-12-02   INFINITE DATE  25.000000

which at the 2006-11-09 quotation of $25.72-95 leads to the following call scenarios, reported on the pseudoPortfolioReportBox:

• Call  2006-12-09 YTM: 7.42 % [Restricted: 0.61 %] (Prob: 25.91 %)
• Call  2007-01-01 YTM: -0.26 % [Restricted: -0.04 %] (Prob: 13.07 %)
• Call  2007-10-05 YTM: 4.53 % [Restricted: 4.09 %] (Prob: 5.00 %)
• Call  2008-01-01 YTM: 3.87 % [Restricted: 3.87 %] (Prob: 5.43 %)
• Limit Maturity  2036-11-09 YTM: 5.44 % [Restricted: 5.44 %] (Prob: 50.59 %)

One feature of the calculations is the fact that the issue goes ex-Dividend TODAY, November 10, and at time of writing is quoted at 25.46-57 on volume of 2,100 shares. It doesn’t look as if anybody got caught on the ex-Dividend, with the odd skip-day of November 13 (odd because the TSX is open, but banks are closed): the day’s range is 25.46-55. So it’s lost $0.26 (bid/bid) on the day, having gone ex a dividend of $0.34375. Which means it’s actually up!

I’ve attached some graphs, prepared by the graphDocument:

• Yield-to-Worst : Definition, Graph
• Flat Bid Price : Definition, Graph
• Average Volume : Definition, Graph