November 16, 2020

An article in the Globe about drone deliveries led to two source papers. The first, The sky may not be the limit – A case study in Berlin, attempts to estimate the volume of deliveries attainable:

Using the city of Berlin as an example, we consider practical questions such as how will drones be controlled, how many parcels could be delivered and, critically, what are the challenges to implementation. For example, we calculate that the usable air space above Berlin could accommodate 1,200 cargo drones at any one time, enabling the possible delivery of up to four million parcels every year.

Regarding minimum safety distances, we assume a scale factor of 10% compared to commercial air traffic rules. This means minimum horizontal distances for cargo drones would be 550 m and minimum vertical distances 30 m.

So, if drone operations are allowed on 280 days a year (excludes Sundays and 30 other non-operating days due to adverse weather conditions and public holidays), up to 4 million parcels can possibly be delivered by cargo drones in Berlin every year.

And what percentage of a Berlin’s parcel delivery needs will drones be able to cover? Around 135 million parcels were delivered in Berlin in 2018, with about 80% (110 million) weighing less than 2 kg (the assumed maximum load of a parcel drone). Thus, at maximum capacity and based on 2019 figures, drones could handle 3.6% of parcel deliveries under 2 kg.

Over half a click of horizontal safety space? I will readily admit to not being an expert on Drone Air Traffic Control, but that seems excessive. The figure is not justified in the paper, beyond the seemingly arbitrary scaling to 10% of commercial air traffic rules.

The other paper is titled Estimation of traffic density from drone-based delivery in very low level urban airspace:

When considering that the probability for traffic conflicts grows quadratically with traffic density (Hoekstra, 2001), managing airspace complexity will be one of the main challenges of unmanned traffic management concepts such as U-Space.

Each of the U-Space level consists of a set services aimed at supporting and adopting the growth of drone operations for European Union (EU) member states. However, challenges associated with integrating high densities of drone traffic to the urban airspace in a safe and efficient manner, is yet to be tackled by the regulatory and technological apparatus of U-Space.

The question remains what would be the expected volume of drone traffic for a typical urban airspace such as Paris. The study conducted by (Airbus UTM, 2018) estimated an average of 16,667 delivery drones per hour, or a traffic density of 8333 delivery drones, for Paris by 2035. The latter figure is nearly eight-fold lower than the potential scenario of traffic density delivery drones of 63,596 estimated in this study for both express parcel and food deliveries.

I am sorely tempted to imagine a regulatory regime in which the bulk of a drone’s flight is restricted to arterial roads; this will reduce noise complaints from old ladies. When the drone gets sufficiently close to its destination, then it can veer off – still using existing streets – and make its deliveries. Surely such a regime would enable the required horizontal clearance to be reduced to a mere fraction of 550m.

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Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.3349 % 1,757.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.3349 % 3,225.3
Floater 4.84 % 4.90 % 41,737 15.62 3 1.3349 % 1,858.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2912 % 3,557.2
SplitShare 4.77 % 4.46 % 38,982 3.49 8 0.2912 % 4,248.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2912 % 3,314.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.35 % 3.61 % 79,836 0.40 14 -0.0558 % 3,181.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.19 % 5.15 % 77,942 15.13 19 -0.3258 % 3,577.2
FixedReset Disc 5.33 % 4.13 % 121,566 16.52 64 0.3914 % 2,175.1
Insurance Straight 5.07 % 4.87 % 98,713 15.16 22 0.0776 % 3,501.0
FloatingReset 1.98 % 2.44 % 50,996 1.19 3 0.1173 % 1,808.2
FixedReset Prem 5.19 % 2.83 % 226,860 0.73 15 0.1313 % 2,667.9
FixedReset Bank Non 1.94 % 2.11 % 172,172 1.19 2 0.1207 % 2,865.4
FixedReset Ins Non 5.36 % 4.23 % 70,366 16.42 22 0.3291 % 2,255.5
Performance Highlights
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CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -7.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset Ins Non -2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 24.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -2.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 22.52
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 13.20
Evaluated at bid price : 13.20
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.38
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Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
MFC.PR.C Insurance Straight -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 23.56
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 13.76
Evaluated at bid price : 13.76
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 19.34
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Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 11.49
Evaluated at bid price : 11.49
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 8.85
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Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 8.84
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Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
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MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
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Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 19.42
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Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 24.44
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Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 13.75
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Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
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Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 15.85
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 2.25 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 12.27
Evaluated at bid price : 12.27
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.82 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 9.47
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Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 3.15 % YTW SCENARIO
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Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 11.45
Evaluated at bid price : 11.45
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc 3.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 15.15
Evaluated at bid price : 15.15
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 3.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.70
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
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Issue Index Shares
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Notes
TD.PF.H FixedReset Prem 104,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 3.25 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 93,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 12.27
Evaluated at bid price : 12.27
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
MFC.PR.B Insurance Straight 60,288 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 23.96
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
IFC.PR.I Perpetual-Premium 49,210 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2029-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.71
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 47,242 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 13.75
Evaluated at bid price : 13.75
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 45,050 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.42
Evaluated at bid price : 18.42
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.05 – 23.82
Spot Rate : 1.7700
Average : 0.9659

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %

PWF.PR.T FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.05 – 17.98
Spot Rate : 0.9300
Average : 0.5882

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 17.05
Evaluated at bid price : 17.05
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %

MFC.PR.R FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 24.50 – 25.24
Spot Rate : 0.7400
Average : 0.5023

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 24.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %

BAM.PF.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.15 – 15.95
Spot Rate : 0.8000
Average : 0.6075

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 15.15
Evaluated at bid price : 15.15
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %

BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.80 – 23.50
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.5392

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 22.52
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %

BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.38 – 18.82
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3000

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2050-11-16
Maturity Price : 18.38
Evaluated at bid price : 18.38
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %

One Response to “November 16, 2020”

  1. stusclues says:

    “Over half a click of horizontal safety space? I will readily admit to not being an expert on Drone Air Traffic Control, but that seems excessive. The figure is not justified in the paper, beyond the seemingly arbitrary scaling to 10% of commercial air traffic rules.”

    Someone ought to take those 110 million packages under 2kg and work backwards. What would be the resulting average separations? Then try to assess if that is reasonable. It probably is. If drones can make pictures in the sky at Biden’s acceptance, surely they can deliver packages much closer together and half a kilometer!

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