Category: Issue Comments

Data Changes

ENB.PR.D Redemption Completed

ENB.PR.D, an interest bearing preferred security, was redeemed today as previously noted. They had, presumably, no difficulty in finding the money for the redemption, what with their recent equity issue and my January gas bill.

This leaves the interestBearing index bereft of all operating companies; it is now populated solely by split-share corporations.

It now remains to be seen whether they will also redeem ENB.PR.A, a perpetual that is currently part of the PerpetualPremium index. This issue has been mentioned as occasionally drifting into negative YTW territory; it’s currently redeemable at $25.25, but will be redeemable at par in December.

Oops! There is actually one remaining operating company issue left in the interestBearing index … BAM.PR.T. However, it is virtually certain that BAM.PR.T will be redeemed in June, so I was only off by five months!

Data Changes

CM.PR.J : Not as Bad as Expected

The new issue from CIBC commenced trading today and on heavy volume of 807,580 shares closed at $24.87-88, 30×100.

CIBC announced that

Following the successful sale of the initially announced
10 million Series 32 Shares, the underwriters exercised an option to purchase
an additional 2 million shares.

The securityCode for this issue is A42019, replacing the preIssue code of P25005. A reorgDataEntry has been input to reflect the change.

curvePrice calculations for it and the comparables previously examined are:

Curve Prices (and other info) on CM.PR.J and comparables
Data CM.PR.J CM.PR.I CM.PR.H RY.PR.D
Price due to base-rate 23.05 23.72 23.95 23.17
Price due to short-term -0.47 -0.48 -0.50 -0.48
Price due to long-term 1.23 1.26 1.30 1.25
Price due to Liquidity 1.43 1.48 1.49 1.48
Price due to error 0.04 0.04 0.04 -0.02
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) -0.54 -0.55 -0.56 NA
Curve Price $24.75 $25.46 $25.72 $25.40
Quote 2/14 $24.87-88 25.50-52 25.86-98 25.01-08
Annual Dividend $1.125 $1.175 $1.20 $1.125
After-Tax YTW 3.61% 3.56% 3.42% 3.62%
Pre-Tax YTW 4.54% 4.48% 4.30% 4.56%

Note that due to recalculation of the yield curve, the values for the components of the curve price are not directly comparable to the components previously reported; but, of course, each reported calculation is internally consistent.

This issue has been added to the PerpetualDiscount index – the current composition of this index has been uploaded.

Issue Comments

Asset Coverage Ratio on the SXT.PR.A Split-Share

A perplexed reader of my article on Split-Shares has eMailed to query:

Your article on Split Shares in Canadian Moneysaver indicates that “Asset Coverage Ratio” is an important metric. Could you provide some details on how you calculate the asset coverage ratio? Is it simply the total NAV divided by the call price of the Preferred split?

to which I answer … yes. Although I prefer to state the equation as “Total assets available divided by total assets required.”

For example, let’s look at SXT.PR.A, which gets mentioned in this blog occasionally due to its negative yield-to-worst. Financial data is available to September 15, 2006 from the manager’s website and may be stated as:

Sixty-Split Balance Sheet, September 15, 2006
Assets  
 Investment portolio, at market value 87,536,712
 Distributions receivable 170,277
 Cash and short-term investments 91,207
  87,798,196
Liabilities  
 Due to related party 69,060
 Accrued liabilities 129,280
 Preferred Shares 38,396,950
  38,595,290
Capital Shareholders’ Equity  
 Share capital 30,803,768
 Retained Earnings 18,399,138
  49,202,906
Unit Value
Number of Units Outstanding 1,535,878
Unit Value $57.04
Redemption Value per Preferred Share (25.00)
Net Asset Value per two Capital Shares $32.04
A Unit consists of two Capital Shares and One Preferred Share. Preferred shares are redeemable every March 15 until 2011. All preferred shares outstanding on March 15, 2011 will be redeemed by the Company at a price per share equal to the lesser of $25.00 and the Unit Value.

So that’s the balance sheet, now to calculate the asset coverage ratio: the “Accrued Liabilities” and the “Due to a Related Party” liabilities stand in front of the preferred shareholders at liquidation time, but preferred shareholders stand in front of the Capital Unit Holders.

As it states on the balance sheet, the amount of money required to cover the obligations to Preferred Shareholders is $38,396,950. However, the amount available is the amount set aside, plus whatever is currently allocated to those behind us in line … so the amount available is $38,396,950 + $49,202,906 = $87,599,856.

With $87,599,856 available to cover an obligation of $38,396,950, the asset coverage ratio is 2.28:1, which is to say, for every dollar of obligation, there’s $2.28 in the kitty. Which leaves us preferred shareholders feeling reasonably secure that the company will be able to meet those obligations.

Another way to calculate this number is just as the reader who inspired this post suggested: the NAV per Unit (including the preferred shares) is $57.04; the preferred share obligation is $25.00; division gives 2.28.

DBRS usually expresses this ratio in terms of “Downside Protection”. They are asking essentially the same question but phrasing it as “How much of the total assets of the fund can be lost before the preferred shareholders feel pain”? Therefore, in this example, they are calculating the value:

Downside Protection = 1 – (Pref Obligation / NAVPU)
= 1 – (25 / 57.04)
=1 – 0.438
=0.562

They therefore say the “Downside Protection” is 56.2%.

Try it out! We have $57.04. We lose 56.2% of it, or $32.06. This leaves us with $24.98 (which is just a rounding error for $25.00), just enough to cover the obligation. The company can lose 56.2% on its investments and still cover the preferred share obligation.

Note, however, that “Asset Coverage Ratio” is not the only thing that must looked at! One must also consider the “Income Coverage Ratio” … but that’s dealt with briefly in the article and can be examined in more detail here at another time.

And, of course, one must always bear in mind that these calculations only examine whether the company will be able to meet its obligations. They do not consider whether we can buy the rights to those obligations at an attractive price. Yes, we’re pretty sure that the company is good for the $25.00. However, the SXT.PR.A issue is currently quoted at $25.83-12 in the marketplace and has a negative yield-to-worst.

By way of analogy, let’s say we’ve checked out a five dollar bill very thoroughly. We’ve convinced ourselves that it’s not a forgery. As far as we’ve been able to tell, with all our analysis, we’ll be able to take that $5 bill to the bank or anywhere else we like! But even with all that assurance, we’re not going to pay $5.25 for it!

Issue Comments

DBRS Removes Some Split Corps. from Review

previously noted that DBRS had placed a number of Income-Trust-Based Split-Share Corporations under review, following the Hallowe’en Massacre. They announced on February 1 that some of these reviews are now completed.

Income-Trust-Based Split-Shares Under Review Nov/06
Ticker HIMI Index Current Rating Disposition
FCI.PR.A Pfd-2 Remain under review until DBRS has final information about the merger.
FCF.PR.A Pfd-2
FCN.PR.A Pfd-2
FIG.PR.A InterestBearing Pfd-2
ASI.PR.A Pfd-2 (low) “remains Under Review with Developing Implications as the downside protection (38% currently) continues to experience erosion.”
STW.PR.A InterestBearing Pfd-2 (low) Removed from review with no change in rating.
ES.PR.B
EN.PR.A
Pfd-2 (low) Removed from review with no change in rating.
EN.PR.A
ES.PR.A
Scraps Pfd-2 (low) “remain Under Review with Developing Implications as the downside protection (39% currently) has exhibited volatility due to its exposure to the oil and gas sector.”

Update, 2007-09-05: After posting regarding the downgrade of ES.PR.B, I realized that the original table (now shown with strikethroughs) was incorrect. The correct ticker symbols have been inserted in bold

Issue Comments

BBD.PR.B / BBD.PR.D Update

It’s been three months (to the day!) since I looked at this pair, so I thought I’d update the calculations.

Strategy: Short BBD.PR.B, Long BBD.PR.D
Item 11/14 Calculation Effect Notes
Initiate Position +$1.40 +$0.90 Will depend on trading prices, obviously
Net Dividend -0.10 -0.07 Assumes Prime Constant – decline in prime will reduce loss. Total Dividends on Bs = $0.75; Ds = $0.6845
Cost of Margining -0.855 -$0.62 Need to put up 150% on the short = $30.45, can borrow 50% on the long = $9.70, have to put up $20.75, don’t get any interest on this because you’re retail scum and don’t get institutional rates, and call your opportunity cost @ 6% for 6 months = $0.. NOTE: Different brokers perform their short-margin requirements in different ways and I am not familiar with all of the methodologies! If they insist that you have to have the full $27.40 cash in the account not earning interest; or if they charge you interest on your margin-reducing long side, this calculation will not be applicable and the cost of margining will change accordingly! ENSURE YOU KNOW HOW YOUR BROKER WILL CHARGE YOU BEFORE PUTTING ON THE POSITION!
Commission -0.10 -$0.10 A nickel a side each way to put the position on – the custodian will do the conversion for free. At least, we hope so
Total Net Profit (Loss) $0.345 $0.11  

So, a lot of the potential profit from this trade has been arbitraged away already, even for those potential participants who don’t have to worry about tax effects. Mind you though, for those investors who own BBD.PR.B as a long-only investment (a course of action I don’t recommend, given the credit rating) … why not switch?

I’ve updated the graphs of the flatBidPrices and the differences thereof.

Data Changes

MFC.PR.A / MFC.PR.B / MFC.PR.C Dividends Declared!

One can say many things about Manulife, as a company and as an investment, but one cannot say that their dividend declaration policy is particularly investor-friendly.They have only just gotten around to declaring their current dividend. The table below shows the dividend information for MFC.PR.A:

MFC.PR.A Dividend Record
Ex-Date Record Date Pay Date Amount
2003-08-13 2003-08-15 2003-09-19 0.256250
2003-11-13 2003-11-17 2003-12-19 0.256250
2004-02-13 2004-02-17 2004-03-19 0.256250
2004-05-13 2004-05-17 2004-06-21 0.256250
2004-08-12 2004-08-16 2004-09-20 0.256250
2004-11-12 2004-11-16 2004-12-20 0.256250
2005-02-18 2005-02-22 2005-03-19 0.256250
2005-05-18 2005-05-20 2005-06-19 0.256250
2005-08-12 2005-08-16 2005-09-19 0.256250
2005-11-10 2005-11-15 2005-12-19 0.256250
2006-02-17 2006-02-21 2006-03-19 0.256250
2006-05-12 2006-05-16 2006-06-19 0.256250
2006-08-14 2006-08-16 2006-09-19 0.256250
2006-11-10 2006-11-15 2006-12-19 0.256250
2007-02-22 2007-02-26 2007-03-19 0.256250

Look at the way the record dates bounce around, with the February ’07 record date being egregiously late! This is not the type of predictability that builds markets in preferred shares.

HIMIPref™ previously recorded an estimate for the Feb ’07 dividend specifications; this has now been changed to reflect the announcement.

Update: I have sent a link to this post to Manulife Shareholder Services.

Issue Comments

WN.PR.A / WN.PR.B / WN.PR.C / WN.PR.D / WN.PR.E : S&P Credit Watch Negative

These issues are currently rated P-2(low) by Standard & Poors, which today placed them on Credit Watch Negative:

At the same time, Standard & Poor’s placed its ratings, including its ‘BBB+’ long-term corporate credit rating, on parent company George Weston Ltd. on CreditWatch with negative implications.
     “The CreditWatch placement reflects the magnitude of challenges faced by Loblaw,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Don Povilaitis. These challenges include substantially lower profitability, supply chain difficulties, significant senior management changes, a new corporate structure which involves substantially reducing the number of employees at head office, and a material goodwill impairment charge.


The ratings on Loblaw and George Weston, which has a 62% equity interest in Loblaw, are linked and jointly influenced by the respective credit profiles. The ratings on the two companies are likely to move in tandem, as Loblaw represents a significant portion of George Weston’s revenues and earnings, and is therefore a key driver of George Weston’s overall performance.

This is due to Loblaw’s announcement of lower earnings and goodwill impairment:

Basic net earnings per common share for the fourth quarter, before taking into account a charge with respect to an expected goodwill impairment, were $0.16 compared to $0.73 in 2005. For the year, basic net earnings per common share, before taking into account a charge with respect to an expected goodwill impairment, were $2.12 compared to $2.72 in 2005.
    The Company has performed its annual goodwill impairment test analysis. Based on this analysis, it is anticipated that the carrying value of the $1.5 billion of goodwill associated with the acquisition of the Provigo business in 1998 is impaired. As a result, the Company expects to record in the fourth quarter an initial estimate of a goodwill impairment charge, which the Company estimates to be in the range of $600 million to $900 million, in its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 30, 2006. This is a non-cash charge that is expected to be finalized and adjusted as necessary in the first half of 2007. This expected charge will result in a negative impact to basic net earnings per common share for the fourth quarter and the full year of $2.19 to $3.28 per share. After the impact of this charge, the Company expects to record a basic net loss per common share in the range of $2.03 to $3.12 in the fourth quarter. For the year, after the impact of this charge, the Company expects a basic net loss per common share in the range of $0.07 to $1.16.

There has as yet been no announcement from DBRS, which rates the issues at Pfd-2(low).

Update, 7:50pm EST DBRS has announced that Weston is “Under Review with Negative Implications”.

Issue Comments

TCA.PR.X / TCA.PR.Y : Credit Worries Over?

TransCanada Corporation today announced that:

it has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters, led by BMO Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, and TD Securities Inc. under which they have agreed to purchase from TransCanada and sell to the public 39,470,000 Subscription Receipts.The purchase price of $38.00 per Subscription Receipt will result in gross proceeds of approximately $1.5 billion. The net proceeds of the offering will be used by TransCanada towards financing the proposed acquisition of the American Natural Resources Company and ANR Storage Company (collectively, ANR). TransCanada announced the acquisition of ANR together with the acquisition of an additional interest in Great Lakes Gas Transmission Limited Partnership for a total of approximately US$3.4 billion, including US$457 million of assumed debt, on December 22, 2006.

TransCanada has also granted the Underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 5,920,500 Subscription Receipts at a price of $38.00 per Subscription Receipt at any time up to 30 days after closing of the offering.

On closing of the ANR acquisition, the Subscription Receipts will automatically be exchanged on a one-to-one basis for common shares of TransCanada without any further action on the part of the holder and without payment of additional consideration.

Readers will recall that DBRS placed these issues Under Review with Developing Implications in December:

DBRS estimates that, on a pro forma consolidated basis, the Company’s debt-to-capital ratio (62% on a DBRS-adjusted basis as at September 30, 2006) would rise to 69% on a 100% debt-financed basis.

However, given new common equity worth $1.5-billion against a total price on the acquisition of about CAD $4-billion, it would appear that the debt-to-capital ratio will be materially unchanged … but note that I have not done a credit analysis or read any fine print!

I’ll update this post when we see what DBRS has to say.

Data Changes

CFS.PR.A Eases into Market

It was a very quiet opening for this issue, with only 11,200 shares changing hands. The leveraging / deleveraging feature appears to have found favour only with DBRS!

However, to my chagrin (and, undoubtedly, CC&L Capital Markets’), this is a teeny-tiny issue: the TSX reports that only 1.5-million shares are outstanding, for a value of $15-million in prefs and total company capitalization of $30-million.

Still, even if you take the view that this thing will trade by appointment only, you can’t deny that a lot of investors will consider it worth holding. It’s Pfd-1 and I calculate the curvePrice to be $10.42, compared to the closing quote of $10.06-25:

  CFS.PR.A CGI.PR.C
Price due to base-rate 9.87  23.66
Price due to short-term -0.20  -0.62
Price due to long-term 0.52  1.55
Price due to SplitShareCorp -0.21  -0.90
Price due to Retractibility 0.30  1.24
Price due to Liquidity 0.15  -0.27
Price due to error 0.01  0.09
Curve Price (some rounding error) 10.42  24.75
Quote 10.06-25  25.86-09
After-Tax bid-YTW 3.29%  2.82%
Pre-Tax bid-YTW 4.14%  3.55%
Presumed Maturity 2012-1-31  2016-06-14

Even if one takes the view that the +$0.15 allowance for liquidity turns into -$0.10 for illiquidity (probably a safe bet!) there’s room for some capital gains for those who buy and sell liquidity in small amounts!

This issue has been entered into the HIMIPref™ database with the securityCode A41410, which replaces the preIssue code of P25006. A reorgDataEntry has been processed.

The issue has been added to the SplitShares index.

Issue Comments

DIV.PR.A to be Redeemed

Coastal Income Corp has announced (via CCN Matthews) that:

it will redeem all of its issued Senior Preferred shares (TSX:DIV.pr.A) on March 20, 2007. The redemption will be made in accordance with the Fund’s articles and results from a retraction of the Capital shares. Shareholders need not take any action relating to the redemption; the Fund’s transfer agent CIBC Mellon will automatically redeem the shares on March 20, 2007 and deposit cash proceeds directly into shareholder’s accounts equal to $25.51071, representing $25.20 per share plus $0.31071 per share representing accrued and unpaid dividends. Post the redemption, the Senior Preferred shares will no long be listed on the TSX.

The closing quotation today was 25.67-00, with 3,400 shares trading, all in the 25.96-00 range.

I mentioned this issue in the post Mean-YTW on SplitShare Index Goes Negative!

Hat-tip to the reader who brought this to my attention!