Market Action

August 17, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.34% 4.31% 25,634 16.67 2 0.1006% 994.1
Fixed-Floater 4.94% 4.15% 266,483 14.04 6 -0.0065% 1,003.3
Floater 4.60% -17.70% 59,040 6.45 5 -0.0158% 1,007.3
Op. Retract 4.72% 3.03% 76,141 2.68 18 0.1490% 1,001.5
Split-Share 5.02% 3.54% 56,030 2.76 10 -0.0527% 1,001.4
Interest Bearing 6.85% 5.31% 60,272 2.14 7 0.0585% 1,011.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.27% 4.19% 169,346 3.87 42 0.0504% 1,012.01
Perpetual-Discount 4.72% 4.75% 352,073 13.79 13 0.0718% 1,017.4
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.E OpRet +1.1459%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 498,885  
TD.PR.O PerpetualPremium 87,000  
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 82,400  
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 57,600  
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 56,275  

There were ten other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares

HIMIPref News

HIMIPref™ Update : 2006-08-17

I have just (8pm EDT) attempted to download the prices and run into the same bug as has plagued operations all week. You have no idea how much I’m looking forward to next Monday, when the TSX says they hope to have their systems fixed! I will update this post as warranted.

August 18, 2006, 12:30 a.m. Prices are in, system is ready to go.

Issue Comments

W.PR.J

This is an interesting issue, a member of the PerpetualPremium index. It’s rated Pfd-2(low) by DBRS, where it was confirmed in their latest review of 2005-09-20. The issue had a closing quotation of 25.22-35 on the TSX on 2006-08-16.

The redemption schedule is:

  • Redemption      2004-07-15      2005-07-14  26.000000
  • Redemption      2005-07-15      2006-07-14  25.750000
  • Redemption      2006-07-15      2007-07-14  25.500000
  • Redemption      2007-07-15      2008-07-14  25.250000
  • Redemption      2008-07-15      2999-12-29  25.000000

so it is currently trading at a discount to its current redemption price, but at a discount to its future redemption price.
Analysis of the schedule and its current price gives this calculation for portfolioYield (from the bid-side of the market):

  • Call  2006-09-15 YTM: 26.33 % [Restricted: 2.16 %] (Prob: 10.32 %)
  • Call  2006-10-15 YTM: 15.67 % [Restricted: 2.57 %] (Prob: 5.69 %)
  • Call  2006-12-14 YTM: 10.54 % [Restricted: 3.46 %] (Prob: 5.64 %)
  • Call  2007-04-13 YTM: 8.02 % [Restricted: 5.27 %] (Prob: 5.05 %)
  • Call  2007-08-14 YTM: 6.23 % [Restricted: 6.19 %] (Prob: 7.39 %)
  • Call  2008-08-14 YTM: 5.42 % [Restricted: 5.42 %] (Prob: 7.06 %) 
  • Limit Maturity  2036-08-16 YTM: 5.60 % [Restricted: 5.60 %] (Prob: 58.87 %)

and the cash flow analysis of the YTW scenario is:

  • 2006-10-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.991246   0.35
  • 2007-01-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.977971   0.34
  • 2007-04-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.965158   0.34
  • 2007-07-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.952372   0.33
  • 2007-10-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.939618   0.33
  • 2008-01-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.927035   0.32
  • 2008-04-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.914755   0.32
  • 2008-07-15        DIVIDEND   0.35   0.902637   0.32
  • 2008-08-14  FINAL DIVIDEND   0.11   0.898677   0.10
  • 2008-08-14        MATURITY  25.00   0.898677  22.47

The averageTradingValue of the shares (as defined by HIMIPref™) is only 34,088 … too small to attract institutional players, but quite large enough for the occasional retail purchaser.

The issue now has the highest YTW of any issue in the HIMI Proprietary PerpetualPremium index – even if we measure the YTW from the ask price of 25.35.

 

Market Action

August 16, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.34% 4.31% 25,731 16.67 2 -0.5379% 993.1
Fixed-Floater 4.94% 4.13% 267,651 14.04 6 -0.0592% 1,003.4
Floater 4.60% -18.01% 58,912 6.44 5 -0.0392% 1,007.4
Op. Retract 4.73% 3.31% 75,942 2.77 18 -0.0043% 1,000.0
Split-Share 5.01% 3.61% 56,434 2.77 10 0.0166% 1,001.9
Interest Bearing 6.85% 5.39% 60,756 2.14 7 0.0090% 1,010.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.28% 4.21% 170,187 3.94 42 0.1012% 1,011.5
Perpetual-Discount 4.72% 4.75% 349,324 13.79 13 0.0822% 1,016.7
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
ACO.PR.A OpRet -1.4953%  
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +1.0309%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 257,700  
CM.PR.G PerpetualPremium 203,000  
HSB.PR.D PerpetualPremium 202,600  
PWF.PR.L PerpetualDiscount 55,826  
POW.PR.C PerpetualPremium 31,090  

There were nine other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares

Market Action

August 15, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.32% 4.32% 25,131 10.53 2 0.0600% 998.5
Fixed-Floater 4.94% 4.10% 271,212 9.48 6 0.0995% 1,004.0
Floater 4.59% -18.43% 59,738 6.44 5 -0.1225% 1,007.8
Op. Retract 4.73% 3.22% 75,920 2.68 18 -0.0433% 1,000.0
Split-Share 5.02% 3.58% 56,449 2.77 10 -0.1930% 1,001.8
Interest Bearing 6.85% 5.25% 61,310 2.14 7 0.1426% 1,010.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.28% 4.26% 170,227 4.05 42 0.1159% 1,010.5
Perpetual-Discount 4.73% 4.75% 352,795 13.79 13 0.2156% 1,015.8
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
DFN.PR.A SplitShare -1.3347%  
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.1842%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 117,143  
GWO.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 31,700  
BNS.PR.K PerpetualPremium 29,600  
PWF.PR.K PerpetualDiscount 28,692  
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount 17,000  

There were five other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares

HIMIPref News

HIMIPref™ update : 2006-08-16

I have been advised by the TSX that they are working on the problem and hope to have it resolved by 2006-08-21. I will post updates on this, but it looks like rather a forlorn hope at the moment – don’t rely on an update appearing prior to tomorrow morning.

 Update 2006-08-17 12:30am EDT Well! I can speculate about the nature of TSX’s programming bug a little better now! Prices can be recovered after midnight, and that’s exactly what I’ve done. The system has now been updated to the COB 2006-08-16.

HIMIPref News

HIMIPref™ Update may be Delayed: 2006-08-15

Things are looking a little grim! I’ve just attempted to recover the prices and I’m getting the same thing as yesterday: the TSX Data recovery screen tells me that prices are available until today; so I plug in today’s date for my price list; and a message box appears advising “You have selected an end date for data which is not yet available. This query cannot be processed at this time.”

*sigh*

 I sent them an eMail today inquiring as to whether they intended to fix the problem quickly, but have not yet received a response. This post will be updated as more information becomes available.

 Update, 2006-08-15 9:30pm EDT: Well, I just gave it one last check and it’s the same old story … not too surprising, really, since it really looks like a programming bug introduced in their latest update rather than a data-updating-bug. So, again, the prices will have to be updated in the morning and I’ll post a note when the process is completed.

 Update, 2006-08-16 10am EDT: The prices have been recovered and the system is now updated. I will contact the TSX again today to see what the plans for the future are.

Market Action

August 14, 2006

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version
Index Current Yield (at bid) YTW Average Trading Value Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.32% 4.29% 26,170 16.72 2 0.3417% 997.9
Fixed-Floater 4.94% 4.15% 266,577 12.09 6 0.0398% 1,003.0
Floater 4.59% -17.50% 60,395 6.49 5 0.3516% 1,009.0
Op. Retract 4.73% 3.25% 76,026 2.77 18 -0.2748% 1,000.4
Split-Share 5.01% 3.58% 56,695 2.77 10 0.0299% 1,003.7
Interest Bearing 6.86% 5.41% 61,661 2.15 7 0.0255% 1,009.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.29% 4.25% 172,954 4.03 42 -0.0081% 1,009.3
Perpetual-Discount 4.74% 4.77% 356,306 14.49 13 0.0578% 1,013.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.1306%  
GWO.PR.E OpRet -1.6147%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater 150,530  
BC.PR.C FixedFloater 127,913  
PWF.PR.L PerpetualPremium 83,950  
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 17,320  
GWO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 15,830  

There were six other index-included issues with volumes of more than 10,000 shares

HIMIPref News

RY.PR.S

This is an interesting issue, since it is quoted at $26.31-40, a fat premium despite being imminently callable.

Options on this issue are:

Redemption      2006-08-24      2007-08-23  26.000000
Redemption      2007-08-24      2008-08-23  25.750000
Redemption      2008-08-24      2009-08-23  25.500000
Redemption      2009-08-24      2010-08-23  25.250000
Redemption      2010-08-24      2999-12-29  25.000000

 And the YTW Analysis is:

Call  2006-09-23 YTM: -5.90 % [Restricted: -0.69 %] (Prob: 31.33 %)
Call  2006-12-09 YTM: 1.55 % [Restricted: 0.51 %] (Prob: 5.01 %)
Call  2007-09-23 YTM: 3.75 % [Restricted: 3.75 %] (Prob: 8.58 %)
Call  2008-09-23 YTM: 4.32 % [Restricted: 4.32 %] (Prob: 4.24 %)
Call  2009-09-23 YTM: 4.54 % [Restricted: 4.54 %] (Prob: 3.16 %)
Call  2010-09-23 YTM: 4.66 % [Restricted: 4.66 %] (Prob: 2.78 %)
Option Certainty  2035-02-14 YTM: 5.75 % [Restricted: 5.75 %] (Prob: 44.90 %)

Not the kind of issue I’d like to own! I can understand why some people might not wish to hit the current bid of $26.31 – they may have high transaction costs through their brokers, while a redemption will be done for free – buy why would anybody put a bid up there? It pays $1.525 annually with 10-million shares outstanding and Royal has done two perpetual issues this year with coupons of $1.1125 (RY.PR.A, 12-million shares) and $1.175 (RY.PR.B, 12-million shares) … so why would Royal keep it outstanding? Even a cost of $0.75 for brokerage commissions on a new issue sold entirely to retail through other dealers AND a $1.00 premium on early redemption is recouped pretty quickly with those kind of numbers.

And, as is shown below, it’s been a sell candidate for the past year, with a consistently low YTW (except for few pops in YTW recently, which don’t mean a lot given the short term to presumed maturity): RYPRS_YTW.jpg

There may be some who look at the very high calculated probability of this issue being extand for nearly thirty years in the future and take issue with the calculation. That’s entirely understandable. I do too. HIMIPref™ is known to have a certain amount of difficulty in calculating meaningful numbers for issues whose prices are constrained by a relatively near term call. For this reason, the parameters minCostBidPseudoModifiedDurationBuy, minWorstBidPseudoModifiedDurationBuy and minYTWModifiedDurationBuy were developed, which put a lower limit on three of the calculated modified duration measures. These parameters have been optimized to values of 1.02, 2.481 and 0.00, respectively (the most stringent condition is applied).

Due to these minima, RY.PR.S is not even eligible for purchase by HIMIPref™ regardless of valuation.

Another quibble that may be addressed is the question of declining redemption premia. It could be argued that due to the known decrease in redemption price of $0.25 annually for the next four years, it is proper to evaluate the chance of redemption of these shares as if they were paying $1.525 – $0.25 = $1.275 per annum, this being the net effect on Royal Bank’s cash flow of waiting a year. This calculated rate certainly is a lot closer to the coupon of the recent issues than the raw rate!

From an investment perspective it doesn’t make a lot a difference, though. Essentially, you are buying these in the hopes that the four year yield-to-worst of 4.66% will be realized. There is no hope of a capital gain – any decline in interest rates will simply increase the very high probability that the issue will be called. Given the hopelessness of the potential for capital gains with rate decreases, the high level of protection agains rate decreases is almost worthless.

Investors can do better. A look at the chart Premium-Perpetual Yield Curve, 2006-07-28 shows that there are plenty of alternatives.