PrefBlog

Yeah, so it was a Friday to be remembered:

Oil prices surged as much as 10 per cent on Friday, one of the biggest daily rallies ever, as bearish traders who had taken out record short positions scrambled to close them, betting the market’s long rout may finally be over.

The onset of a massive snowstorm on the U.S. East Coast sent heating oil up more than 10 per cent. This helped fuel a 15 per cent gain in crude prices over two days, reversing nearly half of the relentless, fund-driven selloff that had pushed crude below $30 (U.S.) a barrel for the first time in 12 years.

… and headline inflation and retail sales both rose:

Canadians are still buying new cars and vegetables even as they become more expensive, supporting the central bank’s view the economy will recover from a commodity crash without further interest-rate cuts.

December inflation climbed at the fastest pace in a year at 1.6 per cent, led by double-digit gains for fruit and vegetables and a reduced drag from gasoline, Ottawa-based Statistics Canada said Friday. The agency also reported retail sales rose 1.7 per cent in November, almost triple the highest estimate in a Bloomberg economist survey
…
Fresh fruit and vegetable prices rose 13 per cent in December from a year earlier, pushing up total food costs 3.7 per cent. Most fresh produce is imported from the U.S. or Latin America during winter. Canada’s dollar fell 16 per cent last year versus the U.S. currency.

… which made it a hot day for equities:

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Index jumped 2.9 percent to 12,389.58 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, capping the gauge’s first weekly gain of the year. Nine of the index’s 10 main industries rose more than 1.1 percent, with energy, utility and industrial shares the biggest gainers. The S&P/TSX, which entered a bear market two weeks ago, fell on Wednesday to its lowest level since August 2012. It’s down 4.8 percent in 2016.

Canada joined a rebound among global equities sparked by speculation the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are poised to add to stimulus at the same time China reassured investors it would do more to damp volatility. Crude oil surged 8.9 percent, bringing its two-day increase past 20 percent.
…
All but one of the 55 companies in the S&P/TSX energy index rose as the gauge climbed 5.5 percent. Baytex Energy Corp. surged 15 percent, while Paramount Resources Ltd. and Enerplus Corp. climbed at least 9.3 percent. Penn West Petroleum Ltd. rose 15 percent to the highest level in more than two weeks.

And as for preferred shares …

Click for Big

The Canadian preferred share market had a superb day today, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 193bp, FixedResets winning 328bp and DeemedRetractibles up 223bp. The Performance Highlights table is ridiculous. Volume was very high.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 16.72 to be $1.00 rich, while TRP.PR.B, resetting 2020-6-30 at +128, is $0.82 cheap at its bid price of 9.52.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.00 to be 0.81 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.68 to be 0.82 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.43 to be $1.88 cheap. BAM.PF.F, resetting at +286bp on 2019-9-30 is bid at 19.45 and appears to be $1.33 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 15.75, looks $0.50 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.17 and is $0.48 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.31%, with two outliers below -1.00%. There are five junk outliers below -1.00% and one above +1.00%

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

So much for private equity:

Henry Kravis called it private equity’s golden age. From 2005 to 2007, buyout firms paid fat prices to buy about 20 supersized companies, from Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. to Hertz Global Holdings Inc.

Now, a decade later, the results of that debt-fueled spree can be tabulated — and it’s hardly golden. The mega-deals produced mostly mediocre returns, falling well short of the profits that leveraged buyout shops typically seek, according to separate compilations by Bloomberg and asset manager Hamilton Lane Advisors. In more than half the deals — each valued at more than $10 billion — the firms would have been better off if they had put their investors’ money into a stock index fund.
…
The results also pale when compared with the 70 percent median return yielded by all private equity transactions during that period, the Hamilton Lane study shows. That group includes thousands of smaller deals.

On an annualized basis, the largest deals generated a median 4 percent return, according to the Hamilton Lane study, which looked at 25 transactions from the era. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index, by comparison, returned 7.3 percent a year from the start of 2006 through 2015.

Meanwhile, players are increasing bets on a dovish Fed:

Traders have gone from betting on two Fed increases in the next year — half the pace policy makers signaled last month — to just about one, as inflation expectations have tumbled to multiyear lows and stocks worldwide have crashed. That’s comparable with the market’s predicted pace in 2013 when the Fed started talking about winding down its bond-buying program, according to a Morgan Stanley index.

Judging by futures prices, investors see the fed funds effective rate rising to 0.61 percent by year-end. That’s nearly in line with the 0.62 percent level that would signal one rate increase, assuming the Fed raises its target range by 0.25 percentage point, following liftoff from near zero last month. Futures imply a one-in-five chance the Fed will boost rates at its March meeting, and it’s not until September that the chances exceed a coin flip, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Preferred share investors were feeling buoyant today!

Click for Big

It was a strong day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 39bp, FixedResets up 99bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 131bp. The Performance Highlight table was the Performance Highlights table. Volume was very high.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 15.95 to be $1.13 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +296, is $0.44 cheap at its bid price of 17.10.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.M, resetting at +236bp on 2019-12-19, bid at 16.60 to be 0.65 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.10 to be 0.79 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.05 to be $1.85 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.20 and appears to be $1.06 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 14.98, looks $0.32 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 14.42 and is $0.59 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.02%, with no outliers. There are five junk outliers below -1.00%.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

Today’s big news was the BoC rate announcement:

The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as expected. Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank’s target range as the disinflationary effects of economic slack and low consumer energy prices are only partially offset by the inflationary impact of the lower Canadian dollar on the prices of imported goods. As all of these factors dissipate, the Bank expects inflation will rise to about 2 per cent by early 2017. Measures of core inflation should remain close to 2 per cent.
….
The Bank projects Canada’s economy will grow by about 1 1/2 per cent in 2016 and 2 1/2 per cent in 2017. The complex nature of the ongoing structural adjustment makes the outlook for demand and potential output highly uncertain. The Bank’s current base case projection shows the output gap closing later than was anticipated in October, around the end of 2017. However, the Bank has not yet incorporated the positive impact of fiscal measures expected in the next federal budget.

All things considered, therefore, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, as expected. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.

This was good news for some:

The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, gained 0.7 percent to C$1.4476 per U.S. dollar at 3:30 p.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys about 69 U.S. cents. The loonie reached the cheapest since April 2003 on Wednesday before the rate announcement.

In what may be a harbinger of things to come, Pacific Exploration & Production Corp. (formerly Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp.) has run into serious trouble:

it has elected to utilize the 30 day grace period (the “Grace Period”) pursuant to the indentures governing its 5.625% notes due January 19, 2025 (the “5.625% Notes”) and its 5.375% notes due January 26, 2019 (the “5.375 Notes”, and together with the 5.625% Notes, the “Notes”) rather than make the interest payments due on January 19, 2016 and January 26, 2016, respectively, in connection with these Notes.

Specifically, the following interest payments will not be paid on the scheduled payment dates: (i) U.S.$31.3 million in the aggregate in respect of the 5.625% Notes scheduled to be paid on January 19, 2016; and (ii) U.S.$34.9 million in the aggregate in respect of the 5.375% Notes scheduled to be paid on January 26, 2016 (collectively, the “January Interest Payments”). The Company has elected to use the Grace Period to assess strategic alternatives with respect to its capital structure.

The Company’s current liquidity position is being impacted by the significantly depressed international oil prices. The Company will use the Grace Period to engage with its creditors (including its lenders and holders of each series of the Company’s notes) with a view to making its capital structure more suitable to current market conditions. The Company remains and intends to remain current with its suppliers, trade partners and contractors. Normal operations continue in Colombia and the other jurisdictions within which the Company operates.

The failure to make the January Interest Payments on the scheduled dates does not constitute an Event of Default under the indentures that govern the Notes. In each case, the Company has a 30 day period from the scheduled payment dates to cure the failure to make such payments and the Company reserves the right to make the January Interest Payments prior to the expiry of each Grace Period.

This follows some circling by the vultures:

Harbour Energy, managed by EIG Global Energy Partners (“EIG”), believes that Pacific E&P faces significant near-term insolvency concerns and requires a large infusion of new capital in order to restructure its balance sheet, avoid value-destructive asset-level reorganizations or distressed sales, and degradation of Pacific E&P’s assets through under-investment and deferred maintenance. As of September 30, 2015, Pacific E&P had approximately $5.4 billion of debt outstanding, including $4.10 billion aggregate principal amount of senior bonds that are trading at levels equivalent to approximately thirteen cents on the dollar as of January 13, 2016, indicating that no value remains in its equity. Harbour Energy and EIG are committed to investing in Pacific E&P to ensure that its operations remain intact, partnerships are maintained and, upon restructuring, Pacific E&P is once again positioned for operational excellence and growth.

… with more pressure being added today:

It appears highly unlikely that Pacific E&P will make the deferred interest payments on the 2019 Notes and the 2025 Notes nor make interest payments on the 2021 Notes or the 2023 Notes when due. However, for those that tender, because Harbour Energy’s offer includes all accrued and unpaid interest payments across all four tranches of Notes up to the end of the Company’s 30-day grace period on February 19, 2016 (assuming the company does not file for insolvency prior to that), EIG’s Tender Offer consideration of $175 per $1,000 of principal plus accrued interest is effectively $200.66 per $1,000 of principal on average across all four tranches of Notes.

“With an average effective price of approximately 20.1%, our offer represents a 100% premium over the average 10% bid price where Pacific E&P’s bonds were trading immediately before our offer was launched and when the market expected the Company to make its January interest payments. We believe the Company’s cash position is dire and that the market has underestimated the severity of the situation. …. ”

Added Mr. Thomas, “We are grateful for the bondholders who have already indicated they will tender. We believe our proposal represents the best outcome for Pacific E&P as well as the bondholders as it provides a significant premium and de-risks recovery in a comprehensive and credible way. In our view, a single voice which is prepared to support further growth of the Company in partnership with Pacific E&P’s management and other stakeholders is the only viable solution.”

Meanwhile, preferred share investors were treated to another day of watching the market:

Click for Big

It was a grim day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 118bp, FixedResets losing 205bp and DeemedRetractibles down 163bp. The Performance Highlights table is ridiculous. Volume was extremely high.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 15.61 to be $0.92 rich, while TRP.PR.A, resetting 2019-12-31 at +192, is $0.52 cheap at its bid price of 12.21.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216bp on 2019-6-19, bid at 15.60 to be 0.73 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 16.85 to be 0.75 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.05 to be $1.63 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 16.95 and appears to be $1.02 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 14.89, looks $0.63 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 14.30 and is $0.34 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.04%, with no outliers. There are two junk outliers below -1.00% and one above 1.00%.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?