Banking Crisis 2008

Fed Buying up to $500-Billion in MBS

The Federal Reserve has announced:

that it expects to begin operations in early January under the previously announced program to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and that it has selected private investment managers to act as its agents in implementing the program.

Under the MBS purchase program, the Federal Reserve will purchase MBS backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae; the program is being established to support the mortgage and housing markets and to foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally.

Of great interest are the published FAQs:

How will purchases under the agency MBS program be financed?
Purchases will be financed through the creation of additional bank reserves.

It is not clear to me just what this means. Will the Fed be getting a deposit from Treasury, financed by sale of Treasuries? Or will they finance it via a bookkeeping entry, aka “printing money”?

One way or another, watching the Fed’s balance sheet has been a lot more interesting than normal lately!

Update, 2008-12-31: Another interesting thing about this is the lack of duration hedging. Players will often hedge the duration hedging of an MBS portfolio by taking market action in Treasuries and entering fixed-receive swaps:

As a consequence of record levels of refinancing in the second half of 2002 and the first half of 2003–which, by our estimates, encompassed roughly 45 percent of the total value of home mortgages outstanding–MBS duration fell to exceptionally low levels. As mortgage and other long-term rates rebounded last summer, a consequence of rapidly improving economic conditions and the fading of deflationary concerns, refinancing fell sharply, removing most downward pressure on duration. Holders of MBS endeavoring to hedge developing interest rate gaps rapidly shed receive-fixed swaps and Treasuries, and these actions markedly aggravated last summer’s long-term interest rate upturn.

There’s a comment on an unsigned blog:

Credit spreads on corporate debt have generally made yet another explosive move higher, as treasury yields have imploded in the recent blow-off move in government notes and bonds. Note in this context that we have once again a case of ‘unintended consequences’ at work here, as the implosion in treasury yields can be attributed directly to the Fed’s decision to [monetize] $800 bn. in MBS and ABS, forcing duration hedging of large MBS portfolios.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: June 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-6-30
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,502.3 1 2.00 3.86% 0.08 47M 4.46%
FixedFloater 1,963.4 7 2.00 4.90% 15.7 43M 4.91%
Floater 2,015.5 3 2.00 4.16% 17.1 68M 4.07%
OpRet 2,108.4 17 1.35 3.86% 1.8 70M 4.92%
SplitShare 2,075.6 15 2.00 5.25% 4.0 54M 5.33%
Interest-Bearing 2,662.3 3 2.00 5.05% 0.6 43M 6.13%
Perpetual-Premium 1,763.9 5 1.40 5.67% 3.8 57M 6.03%
Perpetual-Discount 1,585.1 67 1.24 6.01% 13.9 196M 6.00%
FixedReset 2,024.8 5 1.00 5.04% 4.7 2,152M 5.08%

For Index Revisions during June 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: June 2008.

Publication of index details is embargoed for six months following index date.

Update, 2009-01-02: Index Composition, 2008-6-30, Post-Rebalancing

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: May 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-5-30
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,496.5 1 2.00 3.86% 0.08 50M 4.44%
FixedFloater 1,985.5 8 2.00 4.77% 15.8 39M 4.80%
Floater 2,082.4 2 2.00 4.05% 17.2 67M 4.05%
OpRet 2,118.4 15 1.27 3.75% 2.3 73M 4.83%
SplitShare 2,118.8 16 2.00 5.00% 4.0 56M 5.26%
Interest-Bearing 2,638.7 3 2.00 6.40% 5.3 41M 6.12%
Perpetual-Premium 1,789.3 13 1.23 5.69% 3.6 89M 5.84%
Perpetual-Discount 1,675.9 59 1.26 5.65% 14.4 192M 5.66%
FixedReset 2,023.8 1 1.00 4.89% 4.4 1,483M 4.92%

For Index Revisions during May 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: May 2008.

Index Composition 2008-05-30, Post-Rebalancing

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: April 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-4-30
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,470.3 1 2.00 5.02% 15.5 42M 5.00%
FixedFloater 2,030.0 8 2.00 4.85% 15.6 42M 4.69%
Floater 1,883.5 2 2.00 4.51% 16.4 49M 4.48%
OpRet 2,105.2 15 1.27 3.84% 4.4 78M 4.85%
SplitShare 2,088.4 16 2.00 3.84% 4.4 78M 4.85%
Interest-Bearing 2,608.8 3 2.00 6.43% 5.4 45M 6.16%
Perpetual-Premium 1,781.3 9 1.33 5.63% 3.3 52M 5.87%
Perpetual-Discount 1,654.2 63 1.24 5.69% 14.4 193M 5.72%
FixedReset 2,011.8 1 1.00 4.92% 4.4 1,963M 4.95%

For Index Revisions during April 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: April 2008.

Index Composition 2008-04-30, Post-Rebalancing

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices: March 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-3-31
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,463.6 2 2.00 5.21% 15.2 37M 5.14%
FixedFloater 1,996.8 8 2.00 5.24% 15.2 51M 4.80%
Floater 1,902.3 2 2.00 4.93% 15.7 52M 4.90%
OpRet 2,099.3 15 1.27 3.92% 3.6 74M 4.85%
SplitShare 2,057.7 16 2.00 5.09% 4.1 88M 5.37%
Interest-Bearing 2,593.8 3 2.00 6.30% 5.5 50M 6.20%
Perpetual-Premium 1,775.1 7 1.42 5.68% 3.7 45M 5.91%
Perpetual-Discount 1,654.0 62 1.25 5.68% 14.4 210M 5.70%
FixedReset 1,988.7 1 1.00 5.03% 15.5 2,800M 5.01%

For Index Revisions during March 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: March 2008.

Index Composition 2008-3-31, Post-Rebalancing

Market Action

December 29, 2008

There is the potential for US Municipals to become even more attractive to taxable US investors:

Congressional Democrats are seeking to expand funding for airport runways, housing projects and sewage-treatment plants through a new tax break for municipal bondholders.

The proposal is designed to make so-called private-activity bonds more attractive by exempting the interest on them from the alternative minimum tax. Richard Neal, chairman of the House Ways and Means subcommittee that drafts tax measures, wants to include the plan in economic recovery legislation that President-elect Barack Obama has made a top priority.

A crazy idea; if implemented it will simply increase distortions in the capital markets.

Accrued Interest points out that Bad liquidity cuts both ways in municipals and the same thing is true (with slightly different mechanical details, of course) in preferreds.

Volume was down sharply to normal levels today and prices were up up UP!, providning one day’s worth of support for the hypothesis that tax loss selling was behind the recent weakness (as pointed out on Financial Webring Forum).

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30.
The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index.
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 8.39% 8.44% 137,984 12.28 7 +2.2895% 636.3
Floater 7.88% 7.94% 96,153 11.46 2 +1.7925% 413.6
Op. Retract 5.48% 6.07% 172,642 3.94 14 +0.8365% 996.0
Split-Share 6.51% 11.47% 94,035 3.95 15 +2.6499% 955.3
Interest Bearing 9.70% 19.04% 59,461 2.71 3 +5.8627% 774.1
Perpetual-Premium N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Perpetual-Discount 7.84% 7.95% 250,379 11.49 71 +4.0585% 712.4
Fixed-Reset 5.99% 5.00% 1,049,173 14.90 18 +1.3459% 1,009.6
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset +6.0212%  
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount +6.6421% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.81% based on a bid of 14.45 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.45-50, 1×2. Day’s range of 13.74-44.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +6.7146% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.51% based on a bid of 13.35 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 13.34-74. Day’s range of 12.61-13.74.
PPL.PR.A SplitShare +6.8551% Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of December 15 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 11.14% based on a bid of 8.09 and a hardMaturity 2012-12-1 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.09-18, 10×2. Day’s range of 7.63-01.
POW.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +7.0656% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.47% based on a bid of 14.85 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.85-89, 6×12. Day’s range of 14.39-91.
NA.PR.M PerpetualDiscount +7.3043% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.27% based on a bid of 18.51 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 18.51-15, 3×1. Day’s range of 18.00-19.14.
RY.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +7.3171% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.22% based on a bid of 15.84 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.84-99, 1×10. Day’s range of 15.21-75.
CM.PR.P PerpetualDiscount +7.6779% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.00% based on a bid of 17.25 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.25-54, 2×9. Day’s range of 16.96-70.
SLF.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +8.3736% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.35% based on a bid of 13.46 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 13.46-95, 1×7. Day’s range of 12.53-13.95.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare +8.8235% Asset coverage of 1.2-:1 as of December 18 according to Mulvihill. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 12.44% based on a bid of 8.51 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.51-93, 20×1. Day’s range of 8.47-74.
RY.PR.A PerpetualDiscount +9.1405% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.07% based on a bid of 16.00 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 16.00-17.10 (!) 6×10. Day’s range of 14.92-17.35 (!).
BNA.PR.C SplitShare +11.8265% Asset coverage of 1.6+:1 based on BAM.A at 16.81 and 2.4 BAM.A per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 20.00% based on a bid of 8.51 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00. Closing quote of 8.51-00, 48×20. Day’s range of 8.00-9.00.
FIG.PR.A InterestBearing +13.8258% Asset coverage of 1.0+:1 based on a capital unit NAV of 0.14 as of December 24 and 0.71 Capital Units per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 17.33% based on a bid of 6.01 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-31 at 10.00. Closing quote of 6.01-49, 3×1. Day’s range of 5.85-25.
BAM.PR.J OpRet +15.5704% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 14.32% based on a bid of 13.88 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30. Closing quote of 13.88-20, 1×5. Day’s range of 13.00-14.00.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 78,150 TD crossed 47,600 at 15.33. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.89% based on a bid of 15.25 and a limitMaturity.
CIU.PR.A PerpetualDiscount 42,400 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 15,000, both at 13.30. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.79% based on a bid of 13.32 and a limitMaturity.
SLF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount 42,400 TD crossed 30,000 at 13.74. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.51% based on a bid of 13.35 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 30,336 TD crossed 17,000 at 14.88. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.79% based on a bid of 14.70 and a limitMaturity.
TD.PR.O PerpetualDiscount 24,175 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.33% based on a bid of 16.91 and a limitMaturity.

There were twenty-four other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

HIMI Preferred Indices

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices : February 2008

HIMI Index Values 2008-2-29
These values reflect the December 2008 Revision
Index Closing Value (Total Return) Issues Mean Credit Quality Median YTW Median DTW Median Daily Trading Mean Current Yield
Ratchet 1,458.8 2 2.00 5.38% 14.9 37M 5.45%
FixedFloater 1,988.8 8 2.00 5.52% 14.8 66M 4.93%
Floater 1,939.7 2 2.00 5.26% 15.0 69M 5.23%
OpRet 2,102.3 15 1.27 3.66% 1.3 57M 4.81%
SplitShare 2,115.2 16 2.00 4.95% 4.2 67M 5.22%
Interest-Bearing 2,615.8 3 2.00 6.45% 5.5 52M 6.14%
Perpetual-Premium 1,808.5 17 1.41 5.38% 3.8 80M 5.70%
Perpetual-Discount 1,746.5 51 1.21 5.32% 14.9 265M 5.36%

For Index Revisions during February 2008, see the post HIMIPref™ Index Rebalancing: February 2008.

Index Composition 2008-2-29, Post-Rebalancing

Market Action

December 24, 2008

Treasury is touting a slew of small TARB allocations to small banks.

Cox has admitted that the short-selling ban was dumb:

Cox said the biggest mistake of his tenure was agreeing in September to an extraordinary three-week ban on short selling of financial company stocks. But in publicly acknowledging for the first time that this ban was not productive, Cox said he had been under intense pressure from Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to take this action and did so reluctantly. They “were of the view that if we did not act and act at that instant, these financial institutions could fail as a result and there would be nothing left to save,” Cox said.

Meanwhile, Spend-every-Penny is attempting to deflect attention from the complete lack of a long-term fiscal plan that includes the occasional recession by bashing the banks. Political Science 101. If you don’t have an external enemy, invent one.

A foreshortened day, with volume easing off from the highs of the last full tax-loss selling days, but impressive by any other standards. The market was very strong – perhaps timers at work, trying to pick off their predicted lowest day of the year and getting invested for 2009. Most notably, the two sad-sacks of 2008, BAM & CM, had strong days, leading to questions of ‘how come?’. Well … there was no solid news on the down days this year … why should up-days be any different? The FloatingRate index, comprised of BAM.PR.B & BAM.PR.K had a marvellous day and found itself back at mid-November levels.

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30.
The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index.
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 8.50% 8.63% 142,602 12.01 7 +0.1035% 622.0
Floater 8.02% 8.07% 99,883 11.33 2 +19.1412% 406.3
Op. Retract 5.52% 6.28% 175,390 3.93 14 +0.8840% 987.8
Split-Share 6.64% 12.23% 94,586 3.94 15 +0.2409% 930.6
Interest Bearing 10.16% 21.13% 59,467 2.60 3 -0.4615% 731.3
Perpetual-Premium N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Perpetual-Discount 8.14% 8.27% 252,787 11.16 71 +1.3515% 684.6
Fixed-Reset 6.07% 5.20% 1,090,612 14.63 18 +0.2556% 996.2
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BCE.PR.Y Ratchet -4.6970%  
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -4.5169% Asset coverage of 1.6+:1 based on BAM.A at 17.12 and 2.4 BAM.A per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 21.92% based on a bid of 7.97 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00. Closing quote of 7.61-97, 5×2. Day’s range of 7.50-98.
BAM.PR.I OpRet +4.1667% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 12.40% based on a bid of 18.75 and a softMaturity 2013-12-30 at 25.00. Closing quote of 18.75-90, 20×22. Day’s range of 18.00-20.00 (!).
SLF.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +4.1762% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.83% based on a bid of 13.72 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 13.72-29, 1×15. Day’s range of 13.12-14.24.
CM.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +4.2945% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.47% based on a bid of 17.00 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.00-11, 10×3. Day’s range of 16.41-24.
BAM.PR.M PerpetualDiscount +4.3426% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 13.93% based on a bid of 8.65 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 8.65-91, 8×1. Day’s range of 8.03-89.
BAM.PR.J OpRet +4.3440% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 16.71% based on a bid of 12.01 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30. Closing quote of 12.01-60, 15×2. Day’s range of 11.01-12.60.
SLF.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +4.4177% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.64% based on a bid of 13.00 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 13.00-24, 2×7. Day’s range of 12.35-99.
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat +4.8387%  
RY.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +5.0000%% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.42% based on a bid of 15.75 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.75-00, 7×14. Day’s range of 15.00-89.
BNS.PR.L PerpetualDiscount +5.0449% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.56% based on a bid of 15.20 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 15.20-70, 20×5. Day’s range of 14.55-15.70.
BAM.PR.O OpRet +5.2632% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 15.10% based on a bid of 17.00 and optionCertainty 2013-6-30 at 25.00. Closing quote of 17.00-55, 10×5. Day’s range of 16.18-17.45.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount +5.9611% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 13.84% based on a bid of 8.71 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 8.71-90, 77×4. Day’s range of 8.03-89
FFN.PR.A SplitShare +5.9722% Asset coverage of 1.1+:1 as of December 15 according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 10.95% based on a bid of 7.63 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00. Closing quote of 7.63-99, 11×5. Day’s range of 7.63-80.
CM.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +6.0841% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.25% based on a bid of 16.39 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 16.39-45, 27×8. Day’s range of 15.45-16.45.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +6.1314% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.27% based on a bid of 14.54 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 14.54-63, 1×4. Day’s range of 13.64-14.68
BAM.PR.K Floater +13.9706%  
BAM.PR.B Floater +24.4628%  
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
IGM.PR.A OpRet 65,374 TD crossed 50,000 at 25.00. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 5.26% based on a bid of 25.50 and a softMaturity 2013-6-29 at 25.00.
CM.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 54,320 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.38% based on a bid of 14.05 and a limitMaturity.
BMO.PR.L PerpetualDiscount 52,100 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.40% based on a bid of 17.56 and a limitMaturity.
CM.PR.H PerpetualDiscount 51,367 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.28% based on a bid of 14.54 and a limitMaturity.
BAM.PR.N PerpetualDiscount 51,010 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 13.84% based on a bid of 8.71 and a limitMaturity.

There were sixty-eight other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Regulation

OSFI Makes Major Changes to MCCSR Late Christmas Eve

The Office of the Superintendant of Financial Institutions has announced that it:

is releasing a revised Minimum Continuing Capital and Surplus Requirements (MCCSR) Guideline and four advisories.
“OSFI reviews its regulatory capital framework on a regular basis to protect depositors and policyholders by ensuring financial institutions maintain adequate capital levels while reflecting the risks and market conditions that financial institutions face in a competitive global marketplace,” says Robert Hanna, Assistant Superintendent, Regulation Sector.

To help achieve this balance, revisions are being made to the MCCSR Guideline, which sets the capital rules for the federally regulated life insurance industry. In addition, three new advisories that focus on life insurance capital are being issued.

Late on Christmas eve is a classic time for private companies to release things like profit warnings … things they are required to release, but which they hope will evade careful scrutiny.