New Issues

New Issue: Prime US Banking Sector Split Corp.

Quadravest has announced:

Prime U.S. Banking Sector Split Corp. (“The Company”) is pleased to announce the filing of a preliminary prospectus dated September 30, 2013 for a proposed new offering. The offering is an investment in common shares of a portfolio consisting primarily of 15 U.S. financial services companies selected from a portfolio universe consisting of 20 companies. The Company will offer two investment choices: Priority Equity Shares at $10 per share and Class A shares at $10 per share.

The Company’s Priority Equity Shares will provide holders with monthly cumulative preferential floating rate cash dividends at an annual rate of U.S. prime plus 1.75% (Min: 5.0% / Max: 7.0%) based on the original issue price.

The Company’s Class A Shares offer regular monthly cash dividends initially targeted to be 6.5% per annum based on the original issue price. The Class A shares will be entitled on redemption to the benefit of any capital appreciation in the market price of the shares in the portfolio.

The Company has been created to provide investors with an opportunity to invest in a portfolio of 15 U.S. financial services companies whose shares will likely continue to benefit from an improving economy. The Company will employ a covered call writing strategy to generate additional income to the portfolio.

The 15 portfolio companies will be selected from a portfolio universe consisting of the following 20 companies:

American Express Company City National Corporation Northern Trust Corporation
Bank of America Corporation Fifth Third Bancorp The PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Regions Financial Corporation
BB&T Corporation JPMorgan Chase & Co. State Street Corporation
Capital One Financial Corp. KeyCorp. SunTrust Banks Inc.
Citigroup Inc. M&T Bank Corporation U.S. Bancorp
Morgan Stanley Wells Fargo & Company

The proposed offering is co-lead by RBC Capital Markets and CIBC World Markets Inc. The other members of the syndicate are BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., Scotiabank, TD Securities Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Raymond James Ltd., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Desjardins Securities Inc. and Mackie Research Capital Corporation.

Please visit our website at: www.primeusbanking.com

According to the preliminary prospectus:

The Shares will be redeemed by the Company in connection with its termination, scheduled to be on or about December 1, 2020, subject to the right of the Board of Directors of the Company, on the advice of Quadravest, to extend the termination date for further terms of five years each (the day the Company terminates being the “Termination Date”). The Company may also be terminated and the Shares redeemed prior to the Termination Date in certain circumstances. See “Termination of the Company”.

There is a NAV Test:

No regular monthly dividends will be paid on the Class A Shares in any month as long as any dividends on the Priority Equity Shares are then in arrears or so long as the net asset value per Unit is equal to or less than $15.00. Additionally, it is currently intended that no special year-end dividends will be paid if after payment of such a dividend the net asset value per Unit would be less than $20.00.

There is annual and monthly retractibility:

Shareholders retracting Shares on an Annual Retraction Date will be entitled to receive a retraction price per Share equal to the net asset value per Unit on the Annual Retraction Date, less any costs associated with the retraction including commissions and other such costs, if any, related to the liquidation of any portion of the Portfolio required to fund such retraction.

Except as noted below, holders of Priority Equity Shares whose shares are surrendered for [monthly] retraction will be entitled to receive a price per share (the “Priority Equity Share Retraction Price”) equal to the lesser of (i) $10.00 and (ii) 96% of the net asset value per Unit determined as of the Retraction Date, less in either case the cost to the Company of the purchase of a Class A Share in the market for cancellation and less any other applicable costs.

The Management Expense Ratio looks like it will be somewhere around 1.50%:

Quadravest is entitled to a management fee at an annual rate equal to 0.75% of the Company’s net asset value calculated as at the last Valuation Date in each month, plus an amount equal to the service fee (the “Service Fee”) payable to dealers, together with applicable taxes. Quadravest will pay the Service Fee to each registered dealer whose clients hold Shares. The Service Fee will be calculated and paid at the end of each calendar quarter and will be equal to 0.50% annually of the value of the Class A Shares held by clients of the dealer, plus applicable taxes. For these purposes, the value of a Class A Share at any time is the net asset value per Unit at such time less $10.00. No Service Fee will be paid in any calendar quarter if regular dividends are not paid to holders of Class A Shares in respect of each month of such calendar quarter.

The Company will pay for all other expenses incurred in connection with the operation and administration of the Company, estimated to be approximately $300,000 per annum.

Income coverage will be a major problem:

Based on the current dividends paid by the companies in the Portfolio Universe, the Company is initially expected to generate dividend income, net of withholding tax, of approximately 1.53% per annum. The Company would be required to generate an additional return, net of withholding tax, of approximately 6.0% per annum, including from dividend growth, capital appreciation and option premiums from the Portfolio, in order for the Company to pay these initial targeted distributions and maintain a stable net asset value.

Those who have read some of my writings about Split Share Credit Quality will understand the combined effects of cash shortfalls and portfolio volatility. It’s not pretty!

As usual, a lot of space is used up blathering about the ever so wonderful covered call writing strategy. I have never seen any Split Share Corporation publish any evidence that such a strategy has amounted to a row of beans. I find it rather amusing that they present earnest calculations of “Required Call Writing at Various Volatility Levels to Achieve Target Distribution”, without taking into account the idea that Black-Scholes specifies the fair price; i.e., any option premium earned may be assumed to be offset by capital gains foregone. But there’s one born every minute ….

This issue will not be tracked by HIMIPref™; the dependence upon the US Prime Rate means there are insufficient comparables.

Update, 2013-10-28: I understand that the new issue has been withdrawn. However, there is no confirmation of this as yet on the Quadravest website, the fund’s website or SEDAR.

Market Action

October 1, 2013

Tiff Macklem gave a speech to the Economic Club of Canada titled Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports – I found Chart 12 to be of great interest:

A second factor influencing our exports is competitiveness. Between 2000 and 2012, the labour cost of producing a unit of output in Canada compared with the United States, adjusted for the exchange rate, increased by 75 per cent (Chart 12). The majority of this loss of competitiveness reflects the appreciation of the Canadian dollar (shown in blue), but weak productivity growth in Canada relative to the United States also played a significant role (shown in green).


Click for Big

From the bureaucrats at the UBC Staff Pension Plan comes an excellent lesson in bafflement via bullshit:

“We have what is called a target benefit plan,” says Mr. Parker, who is executive director of the University of British Columbia’s staff pension plan.

In a target plan, the employer and its employees make fixed contributions, similar to a defined contribution plan. The payouts that can be expected are set as a target, which depends on projections, made by actuarial experts, of what the plan will be able to afford.

So in other words, it’s a Defined Contribution plan but they don’t want to say the words, so instead of handing over the dollar value of the account on retirement, they hand over a package of benefits, that may or may not increase or decrease and which will disappear when the beneficiary dies. Well done!

Fitch is unimpressed with the games in Washington:

The US government shutdown is not in itself a downgrade trigger for the sovereign’s ‘AAA’/Negative rating. However, it undermines confidence in both the budgetary process and critically in the prospect of the debt ceiling being raised in a timely manner to avert the risk of default on US sovereign debt obligations, says Fitch Ratings in a reiteration of its June 28 rating commentary.

A formal review of the rating with potentially negative implications would be triggered if the US government has not raised the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner prior to when the Treasury will have exhausted extraordinary measures and cash reserves. According to official comments by the US Treasury secretary, extraordinary measures could be exhausted by 17 October.

In such a scenario, the Treasury would be forced to dramatically cut back on current spending with adverse implications for the economic recovery. Even if it were to prioritise debt service – something the Treasury has repeatedly stated it has neither the legal authority nor logistical capability to do – it would likely incur arrears on a range of payment obligations and thus continue to incur debt, but in a disorderly and disruptive manner.

Even if the debt limit is not raised in a timely manner we believe there is sufficient political will and capacity to ensure that Treasury securities will continue to be honoured in full and on time. Nevertheless, investor confidence in the full faith and credit of the US would be undermined in such a scenario. This “faith” is a key underpinning of the US dollar’s global reserve currency status and reason why the US ‘AAA’ rating can tolerate a substantially higher level of public debt than other ‘AAA’ sovereigns.

Non-essential operations of the federal government will cease from today – the government shutdown – after the US House of Representatives and Senate failed to agree a continuing resolution to grant it the necessary spending authority.

Further to my rant of September 25, I was infuriated by the “Moment in Time” feature in today’s Globe (not available on-line), which claimed that “[Henry Ford] raised wages so his workers could become customers”, I looked around more carefully and found this:

It should be obvious that this story doesn’t work: Boeing would most certainly be in trouble if they had to pay their workers sufficient to afford a new jetliner. It’s also obviously true that you want every other employer to be paying their workers sufficient that they can afford your products: but that’s very much not the same as claiming that Ford should pay his workers so that they can afford Fords.

Ford’s turnover rate was very high. In 1913, Ford hired more than 52,000 men to keep a workforce of only 14,000.

Car production in the year before the pay rise was 170,000, in the year of it 202,000. As we can see above the total labour establishment was only 14,000 anyway. Even if all of his workers bought a car every year it wasn’t going to make any but a marginal difference to the sales of the firm.

We can go further too. As we’ve seen the rise in the daily wage was from $2.25 to $5 (including the bonuses etc). Say 240 working days in the year and 14,000 workers and we get a rise in the pay bill of $9 1/4 million over the year. A Model T cost between $550 and $450 (depends on which year we’re talking about). 14,000 cars sold at that price gives us $7 3/4 million to $6 1/4 million in income to the company.

It should be obvious that paying the workforce an extra $9 million so that they can then buy $7 million’s worth of company production just isn’t a way to increase your profits. It’s a great way to increase your losses though.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 30bp, FixedResets off 3bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Not surprisingly, there’s a bit of a skew in the Performance Highlights table towards winning PerpetualDiscounts. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2853 % 2,534.8
FixedFloater 4.29 % 3.61 % 31,089 18.08 1 0.7734 % 3,871.7
Floater 2.67 % 2.86 % 66,116 20.11 5 0.2853 % 2,736.9
OpRet 4.63 % 2.61 % 63,724 0.49 3 0.1674 % 2,637.8
SplitShare 4.76 % 5.03 % 60,188 4.03 6 0.1285 % 2,945.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1674 % 2,412.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.75 % 0.37 % 111,952 0.12 8 0.2829 % 2,279.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.50 % 5.55 % 148,220 14.46 30 0.3039 % 2,360.0
FixedReset 4.94 % 3.69 % 237,575 3.65 85 -0.0280 % 2,456.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.44 % 201,038 6.89 43 0.0333 % 2,381.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.76
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 20.14
Evaluated at bid price : 20.14
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.56
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 24.73
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.91
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
CGI.PR.D SplitShare 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.91
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 2.50 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.33
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset 104,121 Desjardins crossed 100,000 at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 59,870 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 24.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.57
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 52,414 RBC bought 11,800 from National at 24.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 39,809 Desjardins crossed 15,600 at 21.77, then bought 17,200 from Anonymous at 21.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 31,981 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.26
Evaluated at bid price : 21.26
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 31,541 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.49 – 25.82
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2109

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.49
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %

BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.12 – 26.42
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1916

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.68 – 21.42
Spot Rate : 0.7400
Average : 0.6337

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 20.68
Evaluated at bid price : 20.68
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 22.44 – 22.88
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3380

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 22.01
Evaluated at bid price : 22.44
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.65 – 24.99
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2458

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %

CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 21.82 – 22.39
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4804

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.82
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %

Issue Comments

TD.PR.Y To Reset At 3.5595%

The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced:

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series Y (the “Series Y Shares”) and Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series Z (the “Series Z Shares”).

With respect to any Series Y Shares that remain outstanding after October 31, 2013, holders of the Series Y Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly fixed non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the 5-year period from and including October 31, 2013 to but excluding October 31, 2018 will be 3.5595%, being equal to the 5-Year Government of Canada bond yield determined as at October 1, 2013 plus 1.68%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series Y Shares.

With respect to any Series Z Shares that may be issued on October 31, 2013, holders of the Series Z Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, calculated on the basis of the actual number of days elapsed in such quarterly period divided by 365, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the floating rate period from and including October 31, 2013 to but excluding January 31, 2014 will be 2.666%, being equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield determined as of October 1, 2013 plus 1.68%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series Z Shares.

Beneficial owners of Series Y Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right on or prior to the deadline for exercise, which is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on October 16, 2013.

The new rate of 3.5595%, is $0.889875 p.a. This represents a steep decline from the original rate of 5.10% (or $1.275 p.a.), so my mailbox will be filling up shortly with outraged queries from casual investors.

We can examine the comparables with the help of the Pairs Equivalency Calculator:

FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pairs
FixedReset FloatingReset Next
Exchange
Date
Implied
3-Month
Bill Rate
BNS.PR.P BNS.PR.A 2018-4-26 2.61%
TD.PR.S TD.PR.T 2018-7-31 2.32%
BMO.PR.M BMO.PR.R 2018-8-25 2.14%

The closing bid for TD.PR.Y yesterday was 25.06; assuming this holds after the conversion privilege is no longer available then the average implied three-month bill rate of 2.36% calculated above in turn implies a bid on the new issue of 25.58.

So, as of right now, it looks like conversion is recommended. Naturally, investors will want to wait until the last moment before making a decision.

Additionally, it will be noted that although the deadline for notifying the company is October 16, intermediary brokers will almost always have earlier internal deadlines. Also, it is normal that trades must be settled before notice can be given … so for most brokers, I suggest that the last day for trading the issue in the hopes of reaping enormous profits on conversion will be Wednesday October 9 (remember there is a skip-day for Thanksgiving). This strategy didn’t work very well for the BMO.PR.M / BMO.PR.R conversion, when the price of BMO.PR.M was supported by the conversion privilege and promptly sank after the last trading day to settle prior to the notification date.

On the other hand, the current bid of 25.06 for TD.PR.Y gives a current yield of 3.55% (calculated from the new 3.5595% coupon rate), compared to an average Current Yield of 3.42% for the FixedResets noted above. On that basis – without looking at anything else – TD.PR.Y looks cheap.

On the other hand, the FloatingReset resulting from TD.PR.Y conversion will pay three-month bills +168. BMO.PR.R pays +165 and is bid at 25.11; TD.PR.S pays +160 and is bid at 25.38; both are above today’s bid on TD.PR.Y, but certainly nothing to run around mortgaging the farm for.

So … some might wish to speculate, on the basis that TD.PR.Y should be priced higher than it is and the FloatingReset issue that results from conversion should be higher still. Just remember it’s a speculation!

Issue Comments

DGS.PR.A Extends Term, Proposes Treasury Offering

Brompton Group has announced:

Dividend Growth Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus with respect to a treasury offering of class A and preferred shares. The class A and preferred share offering prices will be set at levels that ensure that existing unitholders are not diluted.

Dividend Growth Split Corp. invests in a portfolio of common shares of high quality, large capitalization companies, which have among the highest dividend growth rates of those companies included in the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Currently, the portfolio consists of common shares of the following 20 companies:

Great-West Lifeco Inc. The Bank of Nova Scotia AGF Management Limited Shaw Communications Inc.
Industrial Alliance Insurance
and Financial Services Inc.
Canadian Imperial Bank
of Commerce
IGM Financial Inc. TELUS Corporation
Manulife Financial Corporation National Bank of Canada Power Corporation of Canada Canadian Utilities Limited
Sun Life Financial Inc. Royal Bank of Canada Manitoba Telecom Services Enbridge Inc.
Bank of Montreal The Toronto-Dominion Bank Rogers Communications Inc. TransCanada Corporation

The investment objectives for the class A shares are to provide holders with regular monthly cash distributions targeted to be $0.10 per class A share, and to provide the opportunity for growth in net asset value per class A share.

The investment objectives for the preferred shares are to provide holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash distributions currently in the amount of $0.13125 per preferred share, representing a yield on the original issue price of 5.25% per annum, and to return the original issue price to holders of preferred shares on the original November 30, 2014 maturity date.

The Company is also pleased to announce that the board of directors has approved an extension of the maturity date of the class A and preferred shares of the Company for an additional 5 year term to November 28, 2019. The preferred share dividend rate for the extended term will be announced at least 60 days prior to the original November 30, 2014 maturity date. The new dividend rate will be determined based on then-current market yields for preferred shares with similar terms.

The syndicate of agents for the offering is being led by RBC Capital Markets and CIBC and includes Scotiabank, TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Raymond James Ltd., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Desjardins Securities Inc., Dundee Securities Ltd., Mackie Research Capital Corporation, and Macquarie Private Wealth Inc.

Market Action

September 30, 2013

The US government is heading towards shut-down:

The U.S. government stands poised for its first partial shutdown in 17 years at midnight tonight, after a weekend with no signs of negotiations or compromise from the Congress or the White House.

House Republicans, led by Speaker John Boehner, want to delay President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act for a year and make other changes to the law. Democrats, led by Obama, say that won’t happen. Republicans and Democrats say they don’t want to close the government, though neither side is budging from their positions.

A brief government closure won’t lead to any significant change of the Treasury Department’s forecast for when the U.S. will breach the debt limit, a Treasury spokeswoman said yesterday in an e-mail. The Treasury has said measures to avoid breaching the debt ceiling will be exhausted on Oct. 17.

It was a very, very slightly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts and DeemedRetractibles off 1bp and FixedResets off 2bp. Considering the modesty of the overall moves the Performance Highlights table is surprisingly lengthy, with BAM issues notable on the winning side. Volume was above average.

And that’s it for another month!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1628 % 2,527.6
FixedFloater 4.32 % 3.64 % 30,916 18.02 1 -1.0356 % 3,841.9
Floater 2.67 % 2.84 % 66,159 20.12 5 -0.1628 % 2,729.1
OpRet 4.63 % 3.09 % 64,489 0.49 3 -0.2953 % 2,633.4
SplitShare 4.77 % 4.96 % 60,488 4.04 6 -0.1958 % 2,941.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2953 % 2,408.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.88 % 5.56 % 124,474 4.52 2 0.0989 % 2,273.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.55 % 145,009 14.32 36 -0.0095 % 2,352.9
FixedReset 4.93 % 3.65 % 240,346 3.63 85 -0.0190 % 2,457.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.47 % 199,971 6.78 43 -0.0124 % 2,380.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.A Floater -2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 2.32 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 23.21
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.62
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 22.41
Evaluated at bid price : 21.98
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.26
Bid-YTW : 3.22 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 20.36
Evaluated at bid price : 20.36
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 18.46
Evaluated at bid price : 18.46
Bid-YTW : 2.84 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.81
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 3.99 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 2.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 72,005 RBC crossed 57,100 at 21.35.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.26
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 63,445 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.79
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 51,938 Desjardins crossed 30,000 at 22.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 37,430 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset 35,105 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 22.71
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset 31,190 Nesbitt crossed 15,000 at 25.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
There were 43 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 22.76 – 23.90
Spot Rate : 1.1400
Average : 0.7851

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 23.60 – 24.23
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.4009

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.80 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.5171

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.21 – 23.74
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3879

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-30
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 23.21
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %

BNS.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 23.58 – 23.91
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.1981

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.58
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %

BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.70 – 25.99
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1758

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-04-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %

Issue Comments

BPY.UN Bids For All Of BPO

Brookfield Property Partners has announced:

that it proposes to acquire Brookfield Office Properties Inc. (NYSE: BPO; TSX: BPO) (“BPO”) through a tender offer for “any or all” of the common shares of BPO that it does not currently own (the “Offer”) for consideration value of $19.34 per common share of BPO. Each BPO shareholder can elect to receive consideration per BPO common share of either 1.0 limited partnership unit of Brookfield Property Partners or $19.34 in cash, subject in each case to pro-ration based on a maximum of 174 million BPY limited partnership units (67% of the total value of shares tendered to the Offer) and a maximum cash consideration of $1.7 billion (33% of the total value of shares tendered to the Offer). BPO shareholders who receive limited partnership units will be able to do so on a tax-deferred basis.

The Offer price represents a premium of 17% to the 30-day volume weighted average price of BPO shares on the New York Stock Exchange and 16% to the 30-day volume weighted average price of BPO shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange, and a 15% premium to the closing price of BPO shares on September 27, 2013 on each of those exchanges.

Based on the current trading price of Brookfield Property Partners’ limited partnership units, the transaction is valued at $5 billion. If Brookfield Property Partners increases its 51% ownership in BPO to 100%, it will be one of the largest global commercial real estate companies, with $45 billion of assets and ownership comprising over 330 million sq. ft. of office, retail, industrial and multi-family assets in key global gateway markets on four continents.

If sufficient BPO common shares are tendered, Brookfield Property Partners intends to acquire any common shares which remain outstanding following the tender offer through a compulsory acquisition or other statutory transaction on the same basis as the Offer. In this event, BPO public shareholders would own approximately 27% of the outstanding limited partnership units of Brookfield Property Partners (including Brookfield Asset Management’s (“Brookfield”) redeemable partnership units on a fully-exchanged basis).

Brookfield Property Partners intends to finance the cash portion of the Offer through an acquisition facility with a syndicate of banks. In order to refinance the facility, Brookfield Property Partners will consider a number of alternatives, including asset sales, asset level debt financings and issuances of corporate debt, preferred stock and/or equity. To support the transaction, Brookfield and its affiliates have agreed to forego any Equity Enhancement Fee in respect of the acquisition facility which would otherwise by contract be payable to it.

The Offer will be subject to customary conditions including, among other things, that Brookfield Property Partners has determined, acting reasonably, that no material adverse effect exists or has occurred. The Offer will not include a minimum condition with respect to the number of common shares tendered, and Brookfield Property Partners will acquire any or all of the common shares that are tendered to the Offer.

There is some resistance to the bid:

Macquarie Group analyst Rob Stevenson called the offer too low, “especially given [Brookfield Property’s] ownership interest, as well as the fact that 33 per cent of the total consideration will be paid in cash.” He said Brookfield Property’s 51-per-cent stake in the target could block an approach by another bidder.

“A perceived ‘low-ball’ offer by [Brookfield Property] or the parent entity, Brookfield Asset Management, has long been a fear of U.S. real estate investors when it comes to [Brookfield Office Properties],” Mr. Stevenson wrote in a research note on Monday.

Another Macquarie analyst, Michael Smith, agrees the offer is too low but said there is a chance Brookfield Property could raise it to $20.53 to reflect Brookfield Office’s net asset value.

DBRS comments:

BPP currently has a controlling interest in BPO through its 51% ownership. Any change in the level of ownership in and of itself would not change the credit risk profile of BPO as DBRS expects the Offer will not result in any material changes in BPO’s business operations or financial policy.

In addition, DBRS notes that BPP intends to keep all of the corporate debt and preferred shares of BPO outstanding regardless of its ownership level in BPO. BPO currently has $330 million of senior unsecured notes and $2.2 billion of preferred shares outstanding.

However, if BPP acquires 100% of the common shares of BPO, BPP may consider making an offer to the holders of BPO’s outstanding Class AAA, Series G, H, J and K preferred shares that are convertible into common shares to exchange their shares for equivalent shares of another subsidiary of BPP which would be exchangeable for units of BPP under certain conditions.

Additionally, they are sanguine about the effect on the ultimate parent, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM):

DBRS noted that the offer, if accepted by BPO’s shareholders, is expected to close in the first half of 2014. The proposed transaction is consistent with BAM’s ongoing corporate restructuring by designating BPY as the flagship listed holding company for its equity interests in the properties segment, and is not expected to affect BAM’s corporate level debt, as the transaction is intended to be funded at the BPY level. Should there be any future change in the details of the transaction and its financing, DBRS will assess the impact of such change on BAM’s rating.

I find this a little difficult to understand, because BPY.UN will be laying out cash as part of the purchase and has not ruled out financing this layout with debt. This should have some effect on BPY.UN’s credit quality and hence on the certainty of dividends that can flow upstream to BAM.

S&P hasn’t yet commented, but in their recent downgrade of BPO, they noted:

“The downgrade reflects our view that the company’s financial profile will remain weak over the next two years due to the pending large vacancy at Brookfield Place New York and uncertainty regarding the company’s commitment to strengthening fixed-charge coverage and debt-to-EBITDA metrics longer term, given the potential for meaningful development pursuits and/or other largely debt-financed growth,” said credit analyst Elizabeth Campbell.

We don’t expect further downside pressure to the rating over the next two years. However, our credit perspective could change if BAM’s or BPY’s strategic evolution materially alters the operating platform or legal structure of Brookfield Office or fixed-charge coverage falls below 1.3x.

The ultimate parent, Brookfield Asset Management, has the following preferred shares outstanding:
FixedResets BAM.PF.A, BAM.PF.B, BAM.PR.P, BAM.PR.R, BAM.PR.T, BAM.PR.X, BAM.PR.Z
Floaters BAM.PR.B, BAM.PR.C, BAM.PR.K
RatchetRate BAM.PR.E
FixedFloater BAM.PR.G
OperatingRetractible BAM.PR.J
Straight Perpetual BAM.PR.M, BAM.PR.N, BAM.PF.C

BPO has the following preferred share issues outstanding:
OperatingRetractible BPO.PR.H, BPO.PR.J, BPO.PR.K,
FixedReset BPO.PR.L, BPO.PR.N, BPO.PR.P, BPO.PR.R, BPO.PR.T,
Floaters BPO.PR.W, BPO.PR.X, BPO.PR.Y

It is the BPO OperatingRetractibles that DBRS thinks might be the subject of an exchange offer.

Market Action

September 27, 2013

I found some excellent commentary on teachers’ salaries:

While we might all agree that the middle class is partly a state-of-mind, I define the middle class as the middle 50 percent of individual earnings. With this definition, at age 20-24, 50 percent of individuals with a university degree working fill-time at a single job outside the Toronto CMA earn above $27,300 and below $60,008. Thus our 23-year old teacher who earns $49,400 does actually start in the middle class of the universityeducated group. However the stay of that teacher in the middle class of even the university-educated within society is very brief!

By the time our teacher is aged 25-29, after 5 years of teaching, the teacher has decisively exited the middle class within the university-educated group. The salary of $66,893 after 5 years of teaching falls well above the 75th percentile of salaries although it is remains below the 90th percentile. But after 10 years of teaching, at age 33, our teacher is quite close to the 90th percentile of salaries within the university-educated group. The teacher’s salary is $88,759 and the 90th percentile is $91,000. The last step in the salary grid would push the salary over the 90th percentile salary for a person aged 30-34.

Finally I would note that all these comparisons of the salaries of teachers to other wage-earners ignore the very large benefit and vacation packages that are part of the compensation of teachers. Even using just salary data, it is clear teachers are very well compensated throughout their entire careers relative to similar persons in Ontario. The benefits and vacation are the whipped cream, toppings and chocolate sauce on the Haagen-Dazs ice cream.

Grave consequences are predicted if the US government shuts down:

A shutdown of the U.S. government would reduce fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 1.4 percentage points depending on its length, economists say, as government workers from park rangers to telephone receptionists are furloughed.

Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics Inc. estimates a three-to-four week shutdown would cut growth by 1.4 points. Zandi projects a 2.5 percent annualized pace of fourth-quarter growth without a shutdown. A two-week shutdown starting Oct. 1 could cut growth by 0.3 percentage point to a 2.3 percent rate, according to St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers LLC.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 5bp, FixedResets up 7bp and DeemedRetractibles off 4bp. Volatility was muted, judging by recent standards. Volume was slightly below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0508 % 2,531.7
FixedFloater 4.28 % 3.59 % 31,209 18.11 1 0.2256 % 3,882.1
Floater 2.67 % 2.87 % 66,737 20.04 5 -0.0508 % 2,733.5
OpRet 4.62 % 1.78 % 65,342 0.50 3 0.0257 % 2,641.2
SplitShare 4.76 % 4.72 % 60,874 4.05 6 -0.1954 % 2,947.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0257 % 2,415.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.89 % 2.97 % 108,032 0.08 2 0.0990 % 2,270.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.56 % 5.51 % 144,447 14.30 36 0.0549 % 2,353.1
FixedReset 4.93 % 3.69 % 242,820 3.66 85 0.0727 % 2,457.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.50 % 197,719 6.90 43 -0.0429 % 2,380.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.62
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.28
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 22.97
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 24.41
Evaluated at bid price : 24.82
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 148,487 RBC crossed 132,300 at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : -2.01 %
BMO.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 132,524 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 25.20. RBC crossed blocks of 50,000 and 20,000, both at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet 125,800 RBC crossed 125,000 at 25.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-10-27
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 1.78 %
BMO.PR.R FixedReset 59,905 RBC crossed 50,000 at 25.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-08-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 2.44 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 49,540 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 21.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 44,934 RBC crossed 37,800 at 22.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRI.PR.B Floater Quote: 20.77 – 21.65
Spot Rate : 0.8800
Average : 0.5897

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 20.77
Evaluated at bid price : 20.77
Bid-YTW : 2.52 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.45 – 23.94
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3184

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 23.15
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 22.62 – 23.17
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3959

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.62
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 22.21 – 23.08
Spot Rate : 0.8700
Average : 0.7420

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-27
Maturity Price : 22.57
Evaluated at bid price : 22.21
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.28 – 21.67
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2718

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.28
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %

GCS.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 24.63 – 24.90
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1764

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.63
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %

Issue Comments

ENB.PF.V Weak On Good Volume

Enbridge Inc. has announced:

it has closed its previously announced public offering of Cumulative Redeemable Preference shares, Series 5 (Series 5 Preferred Shares) by a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC, RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank, and TD Securities Inc. Enbridge issued 8 million Series 5 Preferred Shares for gross proceeds of USD $200 million. The Series 5 Preferred Shares will begin trading on the TSX today under the symbol ENB.PF.V. Proceeds will be used to partially fund capital projects, reduce existing indebtedness and for other general corporate purposes of the Corporation and its affiliates.

ENB.PF.V is a US-Pay FixedReset, 4.40%+282, announced September 19.

The issue traded 694,445 shares today in a wide range of 24.00-80, closing at 24.26-44, 4×12. It appears that the market agrees with my announcement-day assessment that the new issue was grossly overpriced!

ENB.PF.V will not be tracked by HIMIPref™, as it is US-Pay. There are insufficient USD denominated issues to make it possible to construct a continually optimized portfolio from a stable universe.

Issue Comments

BNS.PR.Q To Reset At 3.61%

The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced:

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 20 of Scotiabank (the “Preferred Shares Series 20”) and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 21 of Scotiabank (the “Preferred Shares Series 21”).

With respect to any Preferred Shares Series 20 that remain outstanding after October 26, 2013, commencing as of such date, holders thereof will be entitled to receive non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank and subject to the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the five-year period commencing on October 26, 2013 and ending on October 25, 2018 will be 3.610%, being equal to the 5-Year Government of Canada bond yield determined as at September 26, 2013 plus 1.70%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Preferred Shares Series 20.

With respect to any Preferred Shares Series 21 that may be issued on October 26, 2013, holders thereof will be entitled to receive floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank and subject to the Bank Act (Canada), based on a dividend rate equal the 90-day Canadian Treasury Bill plus 1.70%, on an actual/365 day count basis, subject to certain adjustments in accordance with the terms of the Preferred Shares Series 21. The dividend rate for the period commencing on October 26, 2013 and ending on January 25, 2014 will be equal to 2.686%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Preferred Shares Series 21.

Beneficial owners of Preferred Shares Series 20 who wish to exercise their right of conversion should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee and ensure that they follow their instructions in order to ensure that they meet the deadline to exercise such right, which is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on October 11, 2013.

The announcement that BNS.PR.Q would be extended previously reported on PrefBlog.

At 3.61%, the new dividend is $0.9025 p.a., a steep decline from the original rate of 5.00% (or $1.25 p.a.). My mailbox will be filling up shortly with outraged queries from casual investors!

We can examine the comparables with the help of the Pairs Equivalency Calculator:

FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pairs
Late Quotes as of 2013-9-27
FixedReset FloatingReset Next
Exchange
Date
Implied
3-Month
Bill Rate
BNS.PR.P BNS.PR.A 2018-4-26 2.71%
TD.PR.S TD.PR.T 2018-7-31 2.10%
BMO.PR.M BMO.PR.R 2018-8-25 2.22%

The contemporary bid for BNS.PR.Q was 24.89; assuming this holds after the conversion privilege is no longer available then the average implied three-month bill rate of 2.34% calculated above in turn implies a bid on the new issue of 25.35.

So, as of right now, it looks like conversion is recommended. Naturally, investors will want to wait until the last moment before making a decision since things could, conceivably, change dramatically prior to the conversion notification deadline.

Additionally, it will be noted that although the deadline for notifying the company is October 11, intermediary brokers will almost always have earlier internal deadlines. Also, it is normal that trades must be settled before notice can be given … so for most brokers, I suggest that the last day for trading the issue in the hopes of reaping enormous profits on conversion will be Monday October 7.

Such a strategy didn’t work very well for the BMO.PR.M / BMO.PR.R conversion, when the price of BMO.PR.M was supported by the conversion privilege and promptly sank after the last trading day to settle prior to the notification date.

On the other hand, the current bid of 24.89 for BNS.PR.Q gives a current yield of 3.63% (calculated from the new 3.61% coupon rate), compared to an average Current Yield of 3.42% for the FixedResets noted above. On that basis – without looking at anything else – BNS.PR.Q looks cheap. So … some might wish to speculate, on the basis that BNS.PR.Q should be priced higher than it is and the FloatingReset issue that results from conversion should be higher still. Just remember it’s a speculation!

Market Action

September 26, 2013

Nothing happened today.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 20bp, FixedResets gaining 6bp and DeemedRetractibles off 19bp; the FixedReset figure is affected by a reversal of yesterday’s nonsense with FTS.PR.K; the ridiculous gain computed from Toronto Stock Exchange data was worth a little in excess of 20bp to the FixedReset subindex – account for that and relative figures are more reasonable. Volatility was fairly high with BAM issues notable amongst the losers. Volume was high.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.8268 % 2,533.0
FixedFloater 4.29 % 3.60 % 31,436 18.09 1 -4.0693 % 3,873.4
Floater 2.67 % 2.87 % 64,312 20.04 5 -0.8268 % 2,734.9
OpRet 4.62 % 1.63 % 67,809 0.50 3 -0.1794 % 2,640.5
SplitShare 4.75 % 4.63 % 59,894 4.05 6 0.0890 % 2,953.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1794 % 2,414.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.89 % -0.13 % 109,647 0.08 2 0.1770 % 2,268.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.55 % 5.53 % 146,108 14.27 36 -0.2003 % 2,351.8
FixedReset 4.93 % 3.71 % 243,057 3.66 85 0.0634 % 2,456.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.11 % 4.47 % 197,947 3.03 43 -0.1887 % 2,381.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -4.07 % Not real – just more bullshit from Bullshit Central. This issue traded 800 shares today in two trades, both at 23.10, which happens to be yesterday’s last bid. The last quote was 22.16-00, 1×5. Since the last offer is below the trades, one may infer that there is some real weakness, but it’s hard to tell how much.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.53
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.11
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 20.06
Evaluated at bid price : 20.06
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 21.52
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 2.91 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.78
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.65
Evaluated at bid price : 23.25
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.78
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 2.26 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.63
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
TCA.PR.X Perpetual-Discount 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-11-14
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 50.53
Bid-YTW : -6.05 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 19.39 % Not real. Just a reversal of yesterday’s nonsense.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.84
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 105,876 TD crossed 10,000 at 22.71; Desjardins crossed 78,000 at 22.55.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.26
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 94,084 To be extended or converted.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 57,144 TD crossed 55,000 at 24.22.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.97
Evaluated at bid price : 24.13
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
GWO.PR.J FixedReset 55,800 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 25.12.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 54,942 Scotia crossed blocks of 25,000 and 24,700, both at 22.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.52
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
MFC.PR.A OpRet 52,578 TD crossed 50,000 at 25.55.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 2.77 %
There were 51 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 22.16 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.8400
Average : 0.6017

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.53
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 23.06 – 23.97
Spot Rate : 0.9100
Average : 0.6735

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.78
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 2.26 %

RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.10 – 25.46
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2200

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %

VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 25.15 – 25.56
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2788

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %

IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.19 – 22.74
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.4253

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.19
Bid-YTW : 6.01 %

BNS.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 23.85 – 24.15
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1982

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.85
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %