November 20, 2013

A tale of two economies! Europe contemplates easing:

The European Central Bank is considering a smaller-than-normal cut in the deposit rate if officials decide to take it negative for the first time, according to two people with knowledge of the debate.

Policy makers would reduce the rate for commercial lenders who park excess cash at the ECB to minus 0.1 percent from zero, said the people who asked not to be identified because the talks aren’t public. It would be the first time the central bank has adjusted interest rates by less than a quarter of a percentage point. The concept, which has been discussed by Governing Council members, doesn’t yet have a consensus, the people said.

Members of the council, which is holding a mid-month meeting in Frankfurt this week, have said that a negative deposit rate is a potential tool for warding off deflation. They’ve also cautioned that the consequences of such an unprecedented measure aren’t clear. The central bank this month refrained from cutting the deposit rate even as it reduced its benchmark lending rate to a record low of 0.25 percent, and Governing Council member Jens Weidmann has warned against further loosening of monetary policy.

… while the US contemplates less easing:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is getting closer to curbing its experiment in buying financial assets – but is still a long way from ending the age of easy money.

Recent communications by the central bank show that policy makers are poised to reduce, or “taper,” their monthly bond-buying program. Minutes of the Fed’s October policy meeting, released Wednesday after the customary three-week delay, state that “some” officials believed the pace of purchases could be slowed at “one of the next few meetings,” so long as key indicators continue to show the U.S. economy gaining strength.

But the Fed minutes also make it clear that policy makers will slow the bond-buying program because they are nervous about unintended future outcomes – not because they think the economy is ready for higher short-term rates. The majority of the Fed’s leaders favour leaving its benchmark rate near zero for a period that most likely will be measured in years rather than months.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 9bp, FixedResets up 7bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 6bp. The Performance Highlights table is dominated by losers. Volume was well above average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3321 % 2,562.0
FixedFloater 4.28 % 3.56 % 31,672 18.24 1 -0.0900 % 3,924.2
Floater 2.90 % 2.92 % 58,835 19.88 3 0.3321 % 2,766.3
OpRet 4.62 % -0.82 % 72,566 0.08 3 0.0256 % 2,663.7
SplitShare 4.74 % 4.19 % 68,414 3.90 6 0.1312 % 2,978.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0256 % 2,435.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.58 % 4.92 % 124,143 0.28 11 -0.0540 % 2,306.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.57 % 5.56 % 165,987 14.53 27 -0.0906 % 2,366.3
FixedReset 4.97 % 3.33 % 225,015 3.29 82 0.0694 % 2,479.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.05 % 3.92 % 192,794 1.45 42 0.0578 % 2,426.0
FloatingReset 2.65 % 2.42 % 310,988 4.47 5 0.0158 % 2,459.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 23.04
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.69
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 22.54
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 19.45
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.18
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Premium 174,215 Desjardins crossed blocks of 40,000 and 46,200, both at 25.00. RBC crossed 20,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 24.74
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 105,388 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 25.24.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : 2.63 %
RY.PR.N FixedReset 104,663 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 25.24.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 2.78 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 58,780 RBC crossed 38,800 and 19,000, both at 26.59.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-20
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.45
Bid-YTW : -11.60 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 51,732 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 24.55.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 46,320 RBC crossed 19,800 at 23.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 22.76
Evaluated at bid price : 23.39
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
There were 43 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.43 – 25.84
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.2341

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %

PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.54 – 22.92
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2549

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 22.54
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 26.07 – 26.44
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2596

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.07
Bid-YTW : 3.14 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 22.36 – 22.63
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1749

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.36
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %

TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Premium Quote: 50.17 – 50.40
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1541

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-05
Maturity Price : 50.00
Evaluated at bid price : 50.17
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.57 – 21.97
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3289

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-11-20
Maturity Price : 21.57
Evaluated at bid price : 21.57
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %

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