Market Action

December 11, 2015

We have a new government, but the same old central planners:

Finance Minister Bill Morneau today announced changes to the rules for government-backed mortgage insurance to contain risks in the housing market, reduce taxpayer exposure and support long-term stability. Effective February 15, 2016, the minimum down payment for new insured mortgages will increase from 5 per cent to 10 per cent for the portion of the house price above $500,000. The 5 per cent minimum down payment for properties up to $500,000 remains unchanged.

Today’s announcement represents a graduated approach to increasing the down payment requirement proportionally to the cost of a home. Canadians who already hold mortgages will not be affected by this announcement.

The Government continuously monitors the housing market and is committed to implementing policy measures that maintain a healthy, competitive and stable housing market. Higher homeowner equity plays a key role in maintaining a stable and secure housing market.

The backgrounder reveals nothing relevant:

The Bank Act requires federally regulated lenders to obtain mortgage default insurance (“mortgage insurance”) for homebuyers who make a down payment of less than 20 per cent of the property purchase price. The homebuyer pays the premium for this insurance, which protects the lender against mortgage loan losses if the homebuyer defaults.

By reducing risk to lenders, mortgage insurance enables consumers to purchase homes with a down payment as low as 5 per cent of the property value and at lower mortgage interest rates that are comparable to those received by homebuyers with higher down payments.

The Government guarantee of mortgage insurance is intended to support access to homeownership for creditworthy buyers and promote stability in the housing market, financial system and economy. As part of its role to promote stability, and to protect taxpayers from potential mortgage loan losses, the Government sets the eligibility rules for new government-backed insured mortgages.

Between 2008 and 2012, four rounds of changes were made to the eligibility rules, aimed at encouraging insured borrowers to build and retain housing equity and take on mortgage debt that they are able to service over the economic cycle.

And the FAQs are puerile:

Why is the Government making this change at this time?

The Government continuously monitors the housing market and is prepared to implement policy measures to maintain a healthy, competitive and stable housing market. The new measure reduces housing market risks by increasing borrower equity. This protects the stability of the housing market and the economy as a whole, as well as the interests of taxpayers who ultimately back government-guaranteed mortgage insurance.

What will be the impact of the higher down payment requirement on the Canadian economy?

Higher homeowner equity will help maintain a stable and secure housing market and balanced economic growth over the long-term. In the short term, this targeted measure will dampen somewhat the pace of housing activity over the next year, as some prospective homebuyers save for the increased minimum down payment.

There is no meat on these bones at all. There is nothing to quantify any improvement in government policy objectives that is served by this policy. It’s just another randomly chosen measure that will be touted as an indication to those who are unable to compete for housing that Your Government Is Doing Something.

But the cheerleaders were out in force:

Some new buyers in Toronto and Vancouver will be knocked out of the market temporarily.

But that’s a fair price for bringing some stability to a housing market where prices in many cities have for years risen far in excess of incomes.

Boomers in particular are living in homes that have increased many times in value. A big decline in house prices would be a shocking setback to these people and could negatively affect their financial health in retirement.

Mild as it is, the new down payment rule could only momentarily slow hot markets. But at least the new Liberal government has shown that it’s monitoring housing and ready to act to keep it in line. For homeowners, that’s far better news than another month of big price gains.

As I have noted before, the fact that people are taking advantage of low interest rate to load up on non-productive housing assets instead of productive capital assets is a genuine concern for the western world. There was a story illustrating the process the other day:

It was after losing a huge chunk of money in the stock market, twice, that Ottawa couple Denise and Stuart MacPherson decided they needed to find a new way to save for retirement.

The first bath they took was during the dot-com bust at the start of the century, after getting caught up in the hype around technology stocks. The second was the global financial crisis in 2008, when they watched half of their investments go down the drain.

“That was a very hard lesson to learn, mostly because we didn’t really understand what we were investing in,” says Ms. MacPherson, 61. “It was a wake-up call for us.”

Instead of jumping back into the market, the couple, working then as civil servants, decided to start investing in something they could see and understand.

“That’s when we started looking at real estate,” Ms. MacPherson says.

I suggest that from a policy perspective, what we need is more housing price volatility, not less. Let’s wipe out a swath of real-estate entrepreneurs – as happened in the early eighties and again in the early nineties – pour encourager les autres. Trying to turn the housing market into a 5% GIC – as the repeated lauding of ‘stability’ implies – will have quite the opposite effect from that which is intended. The trouble is, of course, that the central planners and regulators want to turn everything into a 5% GIC, since they run into less criticism that way.

I was more impressed with OSFI’s note titled Updating capital requirements for residential mortgages:

OSFI is planning to update the regulatory capital requirements for loans secured by residential real estate properties (i.e. residential mortgages).

The purpose of OSFI’s regulatory capital framework is to ensure, as much as possible, that federally regulated financial institutions can absorb severe but plausible losses. The potential severity of loss scenarios in the residential mortgage market depends crucially on price developments. In particular, potential losses become more severe during extended periods where house prices have recently risen rapidly and/or are high relative to borrower incomes. As a result, the potential severity of losses may vary across Canada.

Accordingly, for banks using internal models, OSFI will propose a risk-sensitive floor for one of the model inputs (losses in the event of default) that will be tied to increases in local property prices and/or to house prices that are high relative to borrower incomes. This will ensure a level of consistency and conservatism in the protection provided to depositors and unsecured creditors.

For federally regulated private mortgage insurers, we will introduce a new standardized approach that updates the capital requirements for mortgage guarantee insurance risk. It will require more capital when house prices are high relative to borrower incomes. This will ensure a level of conservatism in the protection provided to policyholders and unsecured creditors.

The part of this policy that looks back at past prices to determine risk is – in broad outlines – something I’ve been advocating for years, most recently on November 30:

There are two approaches that can be taken: the first is to insist that for risk-management purposes, the loan-to-value ratio of a mortgage be calculated not according to the sale price or to the appraised value, but to an estimate of what this would have been five or ten years ago, adjusted for inflation. So, for instance, if we have a house that sold in 2014 for $567,000 and has a mortgage of $400,000, we would now currently say the LTV is 71%. I suggest that for regulatory risk purposes we use the 2009 price of $395,000, add on 10% to reflect plain vanilla inflation for a notional value of $435,000, and say OK, you’ve got to put up capital reflecting this notional LTV of 92%, which is a different kettle of fish altogether.

The second approach would simply say … 40% of your balance sheet is now mortgages, the average over the last ten years is 30%, the difference is 10% and 10% of that is 1%, so there’s a countercyclical capital surcharge of 1% that will be applied to your risk weighted assets. A solution would need to be more detailed, with meaningful categorizations of bank assets and threshold values for surcharges so that slow change is not discouraged, but that’s the general idea.

Such broad-brush changes are strongly preferable to the micro-management of the economy implicit in down-payment rules.

Meanwhile Third Avenue Management rocked the junk market by liquidating its junk fund:

I am writing to inform you that the Board of Trustees of the Third Avenue Trust has adopted a Plan of Liquidation for the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund (“FCF”). Pursuant to this Plan, on or about December 16, 2015, there will be a distribution to all FCF shareholders of the Fund’s cash assets not required for the expenses of the Fund and its liquidation. The remaining assets have been placed into a liquidating trust (the “Liquidating Trust”) and interests in that trust will also be distributed to FCF shareholders on or about December 16, 2015. These two distributions will constitute the full redemption for all shares of FCF and existing FCF shareholders will all become beneficiaries of the Liquidating Trust, which will make periodic distributions as cash is received for the remaining investments. The record date for these distributions is December 9, 2015, so no further subscriptions or redemptions will be accepted. Interests in the Liquidating Trust will not trade and will, in general, be transferable only by operation of law.

In line with its investment approach, FCF has some investments in companies that have undergone restructurings in the last eighteen months, and while we believe that these investments are likely to generate positive returns for shareholders over time, if FCF were forced to sell those investments immediately, it would only realize a portion of those investments’ fair value given current market conditions. We believe that doing so would be contrary to the interests of all of our shareholders, which is why we have taken steps to protect shareholder value by returning cash and implementing the Liquidating Trust to seek maximum value for these investments.

The past performance of this fund – which I have not examined in any detail at all – makes it seem like just another go-go fund:

In 2010, it earned 15.63%, according to Morningstar MORN +0.00%, outperforming the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index by over 900 basis points. That out-performance turned in 2011 when bond markets were spooked by the government’s near-breach of a debt limit, but it returned the following year. In 2013, the Third Avenue Credit Fund was the top fund in its category, according to Morningstar, returning 16.8%, outperforming its index by a whopping 1,800 basis points.

Over the past 24-months, Third Avenue’s performance turned sharply negative, testing investors’ patience. Part of the fund’s troubles come from owning debts in some of the largest leveraged buyouts that remain in the coffers of private equity firms, or stumbled in their return to public markets.

But, as a chart prepared by the WSJ indicates, go-go investing works really well for managers!

thirdAvenueCash
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Look at all that money chasing performance! But all good things come to an end:

The fund, which had $3.5 billion in assets as recently as July of last year, suffered almost $1 billion in redemptions this year through November. The Third Avenue fund lost 13 percent in the past month and is down 27 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Assets have declined to $788 million as of Dec. 8 as clients pulled an estimated $979 million this year through November, according to Morningstar Inc.

“It’s significantly bad news for the market, and another straw on the camel’s back,” said Martin Fridson, a money manager at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors LLC. “It’s not typical, but it raises the question: Can this happen to the next-worst fund? You just don’t know. It certainly doesn’t encourage people to put money in, and that just exacerbates the liquidity problem there.”

The weakness in the market comes as credit quality in speculative-grade debt is falling. For every junk-bond issuer that had its rating boosted this year, two have been downgraded, a ratio not seen since 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

And companies are increasingly defaulting on their debt. Swift Energy Co.’s failure to make an $8.9 million interest payment last week raised the global tally of defaults to 102 issuers, a figure last exceeded in 2009, according to Standard & Poor’s.

And there is some credibility to the claim that the fund fell into a shark tank:

Mutual funds that own hard-to-trade debt are gunning for an advantage when it comes to returns, but they can face a big disadvantage when it comes time to sell.

They are often the weakest hand in a market of hungry experienced traders simply by virtue of their structure. They must publicly report their holdings, albeit on a delayed basis, and disclose information about investor inflows and outflows. Hedge funds, on the other hand, do not have to disclose nearly as much.

That’s like putting a huge “kick me” sign on these mutual funds when investors start asking for their money back. Because the debt these funds own may only trade a few times a year, prices are as reliant on supply and demand as the actual fundamentals of a given company.

Exhibit A of this phenomenon is Third Avenue Management. After it decided to liquidate its $788 million mutual fund that focuses on highly distressed debt — and to gate in remaining investors to avoid a fire sale of the remaining assets — its chief executive hinted that the fund was a victim of just such behavior.

“Our portfolio was well known, it’s almost like we were targeted,” CEO David Barse said, according to the Wall Street Journal.

But misery loves company, and fund holders had that, all right:

Global financial markets turned gloomy as the prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase next week and a drop in oil helped spark a selloff in riskier assets, from equities to commodities to high-yield debt.

U.S. stocks tumbled to a two-month low, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 300 points, while shares in developing nations extended the longest slump since June. Oil plunged below $36 a barrel to cap its worst week in a year, and junk bonds had their worst day since December 2012. Treasuries rallied with the yen on haven demand.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slumped 1.9 percent to 2,012.37 at 4 p.m. in New York, to the lowest level since Oct. 14. The gauge sank 3.8 percent in the week. That’s the most since Aug. 21, when signs of slowing growth from China to Europe rekindled concern that weakness could spread to America.

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond exchange-traded fund, known by its ticker of HYG, tumbled 2.7 percent as oil extended its loss. Trading in the high-yield ETF options surged as billionaire investor Carl Icahnsaid more pain is coming. “The meltdown in High Yield is just beginning,” he wrote on his verified Twitter account Friday.

Traders are pricing in a 72 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates at its Dec. 16 meeting, with data out of the U.S. Friday showing growth in retail sales and producer prices for November. That’s down from 80 percent earlier this week, amid the turmoil on financial markets.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 2 percent, taking its weekly loss to 4 percent. The regional benchmark fell to its lowest level since October and has sunk 7.7 in December amid a rout in commodity companies and disappointment over the European Central Bank’s last meeting.

The risk premium on the Markit CDX North American High Yield Index, a credit-default swaps benchmark tied to the debt of 100 speculative-grade companies, rose 36 basis points to 514.52 basis points, the highest since December 2012. BlackRock’s iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF, the largest fund of its kind, fell to the lowest levels since 2009.

U.S. 10-year yields fell nine basis points to 2.13 percent on Friday, compared with 2.17 percent on Dec. 31, 2014. The yield on similar-maturity German bunds was at 0.54 percent.

Oil declined to the lowest level since 2008 in London amid estimates that OPEC’s decision to scrap production limits will keep the market oversupplied. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery slipped to $35.62 a barrel for the lowest settlement since 2009.

Crude capped its worst week in a year. The global oil surplus will persist at least until late 2016 as demand growth slows and OPEC shows “renewed determination” to maximize output, the International Energy Agency said in a report released Friday.

I ran across an interesting blog post today – CBO: Tangled Web of Welfare Programs Creates High Tax Rates on Participants, which included this chart:

cbo_tableau_marginal
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… and this map of US federal programmes:

house_human_resources_welfare_chart
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Despite all this there are still many people willing to snare people in the poverty trap; if this requires intellectual dishonesty when discussing a universal refundable tax credit, so what?

E-L Financial, proud issuer of ELF.PR.F, ELF.PR.G and ELF.PR.H, has Solidified its Long-term Interest in Empire Life:

Financial Corporation Limited (E-L Financial) (TSX:ELF) (TSX:ELF.PR.F) (TSX:ELF.PR.G) (TSX:ELF.PR.H) has agreed to purchase Guardian Assurance Limited’s (Guardian) 19% share of holding company E-L Financial Services Limited (ELFS). As a result of this agreement, E-L Financial will own 100% of ELFS, which owns 98.3% of The Empire Life Insurance Company (Empire Life).

The transaction will close next week, at a purchase price of approximately book value, or $200 million (CDN).

“For years, Empire Life has been an important long-term investment for E-L Financial,” said Mr. Duncan Jackman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of E-L Financial, “We are very excited about being able to increase our stake in this great company and reinforce our continued commitment to its ongoing success.” Mr. Jackman also acknowledged Guardian’s strong contribution to Empire Life.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 33bp, FixedResets off 15bp and DeemedRetractibles up 41bp. Today’s big move in government rates took the YTW of FixedResets below 5%. The Performance Highlights table continues to show a lot of churn. Volume was extremely high by all standards save those of the last few days.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151211
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TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.99 to be $1.14 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.89 cheap at its bid price of 11.81.

impVol_MFC_151211
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Mostexpensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 21.00 to be 0.57 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 16.80 to be 0.59 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151211
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The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 14.51 to be $0.83 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 19.50 and appears to be $1.44 rich.

impVol_FTS_151211
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FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 17.00, looks $0.75 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 16.00 and is $0.75 cheap.

pairs_FR_151211A
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Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.40%, with no outliers. There is one junk outlier below -1.50%.

pairs_FF_151211A
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Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.11 % 6.21 % 33,729 16.39 1 1.0638 % 1,518.1
FixedFloater 7.39 % 6.55 % 33,493 15.58 1 -2.5038 % 2,639.7
Floater 4.45 % 4.63 % 86,239 16.21 4 -1.5309 % 1,716.8
OpRet 4.87 % 4.20 % 28,843 0.71 1 0.0000 % 2,734.3
SplitShare 4.85 % 5.62 % 84,680 1.89 6 -0.5335 % 3,186.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5335 % 2,486.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.88 % 5.94 % 93,087 13.89 7 0.2430 % 2,464.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.83 % 5.91 % 102,793 13.96 33 0.3315 % 2,456.3
FixedReset 5.52 % 4.90 % 258,329 14.80 78 -0.1508 % 1,870.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.30 % 5.46 % 136,053 5.32 33 0.4072 % 2,531.7
FloatingReset 2.85 % 4.44 % 64,555 5.68 11 -0.4301 % 2,070.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BIP.PR.B FixedReset -3.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.56
Evaluated at bid price : 23.55
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -2.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 11.37
Evaluated at bid price : 11.37
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -2.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -2.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 10.10
Evaluated at bid price : 10.10
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.85
Bid-YTW : 6.55 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 10.15
Evaluated at bid price : 10.15
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset -2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.37
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
BNS.PR.B FloatingReset -1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 10.20
Evaluated at bid price : 10.20
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.30
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 18.70
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset -1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.07
Bid-YTW : 7.08 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 18.24
Evaluated at bid price : 18.24
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.59
Bid-YTW : 8.21 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 11.81
Evaluated at bid price : 11.81
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
FTS.PR.I FloatingReset -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 11.55
Evaluated at bid price : 11.55
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 16.98
Evaluated at bid price : 16.98
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 10.86
Evaluated at bid price : 10.86
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
PVS.PR.E SplitShare -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.64
Bid-YTW : 8.10 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.91
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
PVS.PR.B SplitShare -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.64
Bid-YTW : 7.77 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 19.40
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.30
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.51
Evaluated at bid price : 22.84
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.12
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.18
Bid-YTW : 7.45 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.94
Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.43
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 7.22 %
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 23.74
Evaluated at bid price : 24.05
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.85
Bid-YTW : 9.76 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 9.83
Evaluated at bid price : 9.83
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.31
Bid-YTW : 8.36 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 8.53 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.74
Bid-YTW : 7.70 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 8.20 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.92
Bid-YTW : 10.05 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 7.30 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 8.96 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 2.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 14.51
Evaluated at bid price : 14.51
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 4.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset 378,986 TD crossed blocks of 80,476 and 284,943, both at 22.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.83
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 305,430 Nesbitt crossed 300,000 at 21.46.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 21.44
Evaluated at bid price : 21.44
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 301,700 Nesbitt crossed 300,000 at 23.36.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 23.36
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 213,165 Nesbitt crossed 200,000 at 20.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 211,400 TD crossed 200,000 at 10.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 10.10
Evaluated at bid price : 10.10
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 207,699 TD crossed 200,000 at 10.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 10.15
Evaluated at bid price : 10.15
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 203,425 Nesbitt crossed 200,000 at 21.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 21.57
Evaluated at bid price : 21.83
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset 149,244 Desardins crossed 50,000 at 24.90. Scotia crossed blocks of 25,000 and 50,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 109,519 Nesbitt crossed 65,700 at 17.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.21
Evaluated at bid price : 17.21
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
FTS.PR.E OpRet 100,400 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 25.22.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-08-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
There were 77 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
RY.PR.L FixedReset Quote: 24.37 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.3805

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.37
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.36 – 21.19
Spot Rate : 0.8300
Average : 0.6453

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 20.36
Evaluated at bid price : 20.36
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 17.00 – 17.50
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3312

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.81 – 25.26
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.2836

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 19.38 – 19.90
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3627

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-11
Maturity Price : 19.38
Evaluated at bid price : 19.38
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %

MFC.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 19.43 – 19.97
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.4013

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.43
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %

Market Action

December 10, 2015

On November 24 I mentioned the tender offer for a big chunk of Talisman’s debt securities. Today they announced the pricing:

Talisman Energy Inc. (the “Offeror”) announced today the pricing of its previously announced tender offer (the “Offer”) to purchase for cash up to $1,524,531,000 aggregate principal amount (the “Maximum Tender Amount”) of the 5.85% Senior Notes due 2037 (CUSIP No. 87425E AJ2), 5.50% Senior Notes due 2042 (CUSIP No. 87425E AN3), 6.25% Senior Notes due 2038 (CUSIP No. 87425E AK9), 7.25% Debentures due 2027 (CUSIP No. 87425E AE3) and 5.75% Senior Notes due 2035 (CUSIP No. 87425E AH6) issued by the Offeror (collectively, the “Securities”).

The Offeror has accepted for purchase on the Early Settlement Date Securities having an aggregate principal amount equal to the Maximum Tender Amount that were validly tendered and not validly withdrawn on or before the Early Tender Date (as defined below). Settlement for Securities validly tendered on or prior to the Early Tender Date and accepted for purchase pursuant to the Offer is expected to occur on December 11, 2015.

The Offer is being made upon the terms and subject to the general conditions set forth in the Offer to Purchase, as amended by the Offeror’s press release dated December 9, 2015 announcing an increase in the Maximum Tender Amount to $1,524,531,000. The Offer will expire at 12:00 midnight, New York City time, on December 22, 2015 (one minute after 11:59 p.m., New York City time, on December 22, 2015), unless extended or earlier terminated by the Offeror (as it may be extended or earlier terminated, the “Expiration Date”). The deadline to validly withdraw tenders of Securities was 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on December 8, 2015; therefore, Securities that have been tendered and not validly withdrawn, and Securities tendered after that date, may not be withdrawn unless otherwise required by applicable law.

Seems to me they just about nailed the pricing of this, which was about 420bp over comparable Treasuries, give or take a few beeps dependent on the issue. They got all they wanted, with no more than 80% take-up for any of the five issues.

The bureaucrats will be happy today! The ‘guilty until proven innocent’ aspect of anti-corruption laws has permitted them to exercise a certain level of direction and control over SNC Lavalin:

The previous Conservative government softened its tough anti-corruption rules for companies doing business with Ottawa last July in the face of intense criticism from business groups. The most contentious part of the rules was an inflexible 10-year contracting ban on companies charged with a long list of offences anywhere in the world, which was softened to five years. Under the new rules, the government could also immediately suspend any company charged.

That last change was of particular concern to SNC, given that it was charged in February with fraud and corruption related to its business in Libya and does significant business with the federal government. The company wanted to be sure it wouldn’t be suspended so entered into talks on an administrative agreement, said SNC spokesman Louis-Antoine Paquin.

The SNC-Lavalin agreement is the first reached under the new regime, and allows the company to continue with existing contracts and any future work with the federal government. As part of the deal, it agreed to strict conditions and third-party oversight of its business practices. The specific terms are confidential, Mr. Paquin said.

And soon life may get even better for the central planners, when everybody’s a Secret Policeman:

A pledge of allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) – otherwise known as Daesh – that might have been posted to Facebook by suspected terrorist Tashfeen Malik has prompted US lawmakers to revive a bill that would require technology companies such as Facebook and Twitter to report suspected online terror activity.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat from California, is sponsoring the legislation along with Sen. Richard Burr, a Republican from North Carolina.

From her statement:

We’re in a new age where terrorist groups like [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIL] are using social media to reinvent how they recruit and plot attacks.

That information can be the key to identifying and stopping terrorist recruitment or a terrorist attack, but we need help from technology companies.

Feinstein said that under the legislation, companies wouldn’t have to go out of their way to uncover terrorist activity. But if they do happen upon it, they’d be required to report it to law enforcement.

Laurentian Bank, proud issuer of LB.PR.F and LB.PR.H, got a vote of confidence from DBRS:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) notes that yesterday Laurentian Bank of Canada (Laurentian or the Bank) (Deposits and Senior Debt, rated A (low)) launched a $65 million common share offering to strengthen its capital ratios after reporting a net loss for Q4 2015 of $18.7 million due to impairment and restructuring charges totalling $61.7 million after tax. Excluding these charges and other adjustments, Laurentian announced good core net earnings of $44.1 million for Q4 2015 and $172.2 million for the full year ended October 31, 2015. The Bank’s year-end CET1 capital ratio of 7.6% would instead be 8.0% pro forma the common share issue. With good underlying results and a net impact-to-capital ratio of only 7 basis points (bps) due to the charges, there is no impact to DBRS current ratings for Laurentian at this time.

DBRS does view positively Laurentian’s decision to issue common shares in order to improve the buffer it has relative to regulatory minimums. However, DBRS also reiterates its observation from its November 6, 2015, rating report that, even after the common share issuance, Laurentian’s capitalization levels are closer to regulatory minimums than its peers. Although the Bank has indicated it is raising the capital in order to strengthen its flexibility, including being able to proceed with opportunistic acquisitions consistent with its growth objectives, if they were to present themselves (there are none on the immediate horizon), DBRS believes the Bank will still have a limited buffer to withstand a major problem and continues to have limited financial flexibility.

It was – wait for it – a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 27bp, FixedResets off 9bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 22bp. The Performance Highlights table continues to reveal a lot of churn. Volume is still enormously high.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151210
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.91 to be $1.15 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +154, is $1.02 cheap at its bid price of 18.40.

impVol_MFC_151210
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 20.80 to be 0.54 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 16.53 to be 0.75 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151210
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 14.50 to be $1.13 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 19.50 and appears to be $1.16 rich.

impVol_FTS_151210
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.80, looks $0.62 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.75 and is $0.83 cheap.

pairs_FR_151210
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.41%, with one outlier below -1.50%. There is one junk outlier below -1.50%.

pairs_FF_151210
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.17 % 6.28 % 33,816 16.31 1 -3.5897 % 1,502.1
FixedFloater 7.21 % 6.38 % 33,212 15.78 1 -0.9023 % 2,707.5
Floater 4.34 % 4.56 % 80,043 16.21 4 -3.2889 % 1,743.5
OpRet 4.87 % 4.18 % 26,709 0.71 1 0.0000 % 2,734.3
SplitShare 4.82 % 5.46 % 83,698 2.86 6 0.0342 % 3,203.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0342 % 2,499.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.89 % 5.96 % 95,099 13.84 7 -0.1387 % 2,458.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.84 % 5.94 % 100,369 13.95 33 -0.2700 % 2,448.2
FixedReset 5.50 % 5.04 % 259,405 14.40 78 -0.0913 % 1,873.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.31 % 5.48 % 137,966 5.32 33 0.2263 % 2,521.5
FloatingReset 2.83 % 4.33 % 66,482 5.69 11 -0.8330 % 2,079.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -3.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 11.69
Evaluated at bid price : 11.69
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet -3.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.16
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -3.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 10.51
Evaluated at bid price : 10.51
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -3.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 10.51
Evaluated at bid price : 10.51
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -3.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset -2.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.35
Bid-YTW : 6.79 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -2.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 10.50
Evaluated at bid price : 10.50
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -2.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 17.20
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -2.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset -2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.26
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
BNS.PR.B FloatingReset -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 7.25 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.70
Bid-YTW : 10.25 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 22.01
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.53
Bid-YTW : 8.87 %
BNS.PR.C FloatingReset -1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.73
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.43
Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 11.97
Evaluated at bid price : 11.97
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.10
Bid-YTW : 9.71 %
PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Discount -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 22.93
Evaluated at bid price : 23.32
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 20.73
Evaluated at bid price : 20.73
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 20.86
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
TD.PF.F Perpetual-Discount -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 19.95
Evaluated at bid price : 19.95
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 15.21
Evaluated at bid price : 15.21
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 22.30
Evaluated at bid price : 22.59
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 11.00
Evaluated at bid price : 11.00
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 23.99
Evaluated at bid price : 24.46
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 16.88
Evaluated at bid price : 16.88
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 17.03
Evaluated at bid price : 17.03
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 7.24 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 21.03
Evaluated at bid price : 21.03
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 17.29
Evaluated at bid price : 17.29
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.76
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 16.54
Evaluated at bid price : 16.54
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 18.28
Evaluated at bid price : 18.28
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 19.16
Evaluated at bid price : 19.16
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 17.28
Evaluated at bid price : 17.28
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 7.34 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 17.71
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 15.07
Evaluated at bid price : 15.07
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset 4.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 19.01
Evaluated at bid price : 19.01
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.C FloatingReset 184,623 TD crossed 182,600 shares at 21.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.73
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium 106,684 RBC crossed 97,900 at 24.46.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 24.02
Evaluated at bid price : 24.27
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 105,364 TD crossed 100,000 at 22.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 90,536 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 17.28
Evaluated at bid price : 17.28
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 76,669 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 18.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 18.21
Evaluated at bid price : 18.21
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 70,415 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 18.28
Evaluated at bid price : 18.28
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
There were 86 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 10.51 – 11.30
Spot Rate : 0.7900
Average : 0.5157

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 10.51
Evaluated at bid price : 10.51
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %

BAM.PR.E Ratchet Quote: 13.16 – 14.00
Spot Rate : 0.8400
Average : 0.6874

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.16
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %

MFC.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 17.85 – 18.40
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.4130

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.85
Bid-YTW : 8.01 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 12.00 – 12.74
Spot Rate : 0.7400
Average : 0.6068

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %

PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.32 – 23.81
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3569

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 22.93
Evaluated at bid price : 23.32
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %

TRP.PR.H FloatingReset Quote: 9.71 – 10.17
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3278

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-10
Maturity Price : 9.71
Evaluated at bid price : 9.71
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %

Contingent Capital

Update On OSFI Insurer Regulation

OSFI Assistant Superintendent Neville Henderson gave a speech to the 2015 Life Insurance Invitational Forum:

Domestic Insurance Capital Standards

On the domestic front, we are still on track to implement OSFI’s new life insurance regulatory capital framework in 2018. The new capital framework will provide a superior risk based assessment methodology for determining capital requirements. The new test will make use of more current analysis and methodologies as well as explicitly taking into account mitigating actions and diversification benefits. It will allow our capital requirements to remain state of the art compared to those of other jurisdictions.

The capital changes in the new framework are explicitly calibrated to a consistent level of conditional tail expectation (CTE) across the various risks. Actuarial valuation of insurance company liabilities are explicitly intended to include conservative margins with the degree of conservatism varying across risks.

To help ensure that this approach results in consistent capital measures across companies, OSFI has asked the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Actuarial Standards Board to consider certain issues with a view to updating actuarial standards and /or guidelines if required.

To avoid double counting and inconsistent treatment of different risks, this new framework will include margins for adverse deviations as an available capital resource.

While we are awaiting the results of Quantitative Impact Study (QIS)7, we are in the process of planning to conduct two framework runs, one in 2016 followed by another one in 2017. These “test drives” will allow us to validate the new capital test and help insurers gear up for the updated regulatory compliance requirements under the new framework.

We should also have a final guideline ready for issue in July 2016, following input from the industry on the draft. Any anomalies uncovered in the testing will be taken into consideration prior to implementation. This will allow time for industry feedback and enable insurers to plan and prepare their systems for implementation of the framework in early 2018.

Global Insurance Capital Developments

While work continues on the domestic front, there are also developments in standards for internationally active insurers.

The International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS) is refining the Basic Capital Requirement (BCR) and Higher Loss Absorbency (HLA) requirements for Global Systemically Important Insurers (GSIIs) for implementation in 2019. Work in this area is aimed at mitigating or avoiding risks to the global financial system.

To eventually replace the BCR, the IAIS is developing an internationally agreed upon risk based capital test. The Insurance capital standard (ICS 1.0) for the broader list of Internationally Active Insurance Groups (IAIG) will be ready by the end of 2016, for implementation in 2019.

OSFI looks carefully at the Canadian marketplace and Canadian requirements before deciding whether to adopt international standards. We will take ICS into consideration as we fine tune our current capital tests. The work we do on the OSFI life insurance framework already includes many of the changes stemming from these international standards and we don’t expect ICS 1.0 to be as sophisticated as our current Minimum Continuing Capital and Surplus Requirements (MCCSR) capital test. Consequently, we do not foresee a need to implement any significant changes.

The significant changes will likely come as ICS 2.0 is finalized. It may bring sufficient worldwide convergence for OSFI to start thinking about implementation.

The important thing about ICS is that this is what will determine whether or not preferred shares must be convertible into equity (or have other pre-bankruptcy capital loss absorption features) in order to be counted as Tier 1 capital. This proposal is outlined in the Consultation Paper “Risk-based Global Insurance Capital Standard” which is available in a ludicrously inconvenient manner, paragraph 92 with associated question 25:

92. The IAIS is considering a requirement for a principal loss absorbency mechanism to apply to Tier 1 instruments for which there is a limit. This principal loss absorbency mechanism would provide a means for such instruments to absorb losses on a going-concern basis through reductions in the principal amount in addition to cancellation of distributions.

Question 25. Should Tier 1 instruments for which there is a limit be required to include a principal loss absorbency mechanism that absorbs losses on a going-concern basis by means of the principal amount in addition to actions with respect to distributions (e.g. coupon cancellation)? If so, how would such a mechanism operate in practice and at what point should such a mechanism be triggered?

OSFI’s response to this question is available in the document “Compiled Responses to ICS Consultation 17 Dec 2014 – 16 Feb 2015”, which is also available in a ludicrously inconvenient manner:

No, OSFI does not support the inclusion of a principal loss absorbency mechanism on Tier 1 instruments for which there is a limit. Tier 1 instruments must be able to absorb losses on a going concern basis, which these instruments do through coupon cancellation.

Despite this, I expect that OSFI will adopt whatever ends up being in ICS, as in this way any future criticism will be deflected to the international body and they will be able to keep their jobs and continue angling for future employment with those whom they currently regulate.

OSFI’s response to this – and other – questions has never been explained to the Canadian public as far as I know, because we’re disgusting taxpayer and investor scum, not worth the dirt underneath our own fingernails.

Further discussion of the capital standard and my reasons for believing that the NVCC rule will be applied to insurers and insurance holding companies are provided in every edition of PrefLetter.

Market Action

December 9, 2015

Well, it looks like one source of PrefBlog entertainment is coming to an end … Sprott is on the verge of winning the battle for Gold Trust:

Sprott Asset Management LP (“Sprott” or “Sprott Asset Management”), together with Sprott Physical Gold Trust (NYSE:PHYS) (TSX:PHY.U) and Sprott Physical Silver Trust (NYSE:PSLV) (TSX:PHS.U), today announced that a majority of Central GoldTrust (“GTU”) (TSX:GTU.UN) (TSX:GTU.U) (NYSEMKT:GTU) unitholders have tendered into the Sprott offer for GTU, and as a result Sprott, on behalf of tendering GTU unitholders and as described in Sprott’s November 20, 2015 Notice of Extension and Variation, has removed Brian Felske, Glenn Fox, Bruce Heagle, Ian McAvity, Michael Parente and Jason Schwandt as GTU trustees and appointed Marc Faber, James Fox, Sharon Ranson, John Wilson and Rosemary Zigrossi as new trustees of GTU. Stefan Spicer remains a trustee of GTU.

Following the replacement of GTU’s trustees, Sprott, also on behalf of tendering GTU unitholders, submitted a unitholder meeting requisition to the reconstituted GTU board proposing that the Merger transaction forming part of the Sprott offer for GTU be considered at a special meeting of GTU unitholders.

Sprott has extended the expiry times of the Sprott offers for GTU and for Silver Bullion Trust (“SBT”) (TSX:SBT.UN) (TSX:SBT.U) (collectively, the “Sprott offers”) to 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on January 12, 2016. Notices of extension will be filed shortly.

As of 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on December 7, 2015, there were 10,641,033 GTU units (55.14% of all outstanding GTU units) and 2,294,963 SBT units (41.98% of all outstanding SBT units) tendered to the respective Sprott offers.

Fortunately, the battle for Silver Trust still rages and incumbent management had this to say:

Silver Bullion Trust (“SBT”) (TSX:SBT.UN) (C$) and (TSX:SBT.U) (US$) confirmed today that the unsolicited offer by Sprott Asset Management LP and Sprott Physical Silver Trust (“Sprott PSLV”; and collectively, “Sprott”) for all of the outstanding units of SBT has once again failed to achieve sufficient acceptance to satisfy the required minimum tender condition. As a result, Sprott has yet again, for the 8th time, extended the expiry date of their offer, which is now set to expire on January 12, 2016.

Bruce Heagle, Chair of the Special Committee of the Board of Trustees, stated: “Yet again, Sprott’s inadequate offer has failed to achieve sufficient support from SBT unitholders. We expect that unitholder support for Sprott’s offer will erode further and support for the proposed conversion (the “ETF Conversion”) of SBT into a silver bullion exchange-traded fund will gain momentum as unitholders review the Trustees’ Information Circular (the “Circular”), which describes the benefits of the ETF Conversion for all unitholders and its clear advantages relative to Sprott’s offer. We are confident that unitholders will reach the same conclusion as the Independent Trustees have; that the proposed ETF Conversion is a superior alternative to Sprott’s inadequate offer.”

Gold Trust, regrettably, was silent.

I understand there will be a new publication devoted to the Canadian preferred share market:

Haunt of Fear 021 (EC) 11
Click for Big

It was another appalling day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 3bp, FixedResets losing 133bp and DeemedRetractibles off 45bp. FixedReset yields have now broken through the 5.00% barrier. The Performance Highlights table is its usual ridiculous self. Volume was, again, incredibly high.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.91%, equivalent to 7.68% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little over 4.2%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread [in this context, the “Seniority Spread”] is now about 345bp, an incredibly high number, representing an explosive widening from the 310bp reported December 2.

For those keeping score, TXPR is now down about 7.16% on the month to date and is now only 0.93% above the low of October 14.

TXPR_151209
Click for Big

TXPL is down about 8.76% on the month to date and is 0.74% above the October 14 low.

TXPL_151209
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For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151209
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TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 18.00 to be $1.20 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +154, is $1.13 cheap at its bid price of 18.25.

impVol_MFC_151209
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Most expensive is MFC.PR.H, resetting at +313bp on 2017-3-19, bid at 21.00 to be 0.72 rich, while MFC.PR.K, resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 16.82 to be 0.52 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151209
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 14.68 to be $1.01 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 19.50 and appears to be $1.09 rich.

impVol_FTS_151209
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FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.73, looks $0.61 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.75 and is $0.76 cheap.

pairs_FR_151209
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.41%, with one outlier below -1.50%. There is one junk outlier below -1.50%.

pairs_FF_151209
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.98 % 6.05 % 34,207 16.59 1 1.1111 % 1,558.0
FixedFloater 7.14 % 6.32 % 32,909 15.86 1 -1.4815 % 2,732.1
Floater 4.20 % 4.39 % 75,601 16.53 4 1.5801 % 1,802.8
OpRet 4.87 % 4.17 % 27,812 0.71 1 0.0000 % 2,734.3
SplitShare 4.82 % 5.25 % 84,704 2.86 6 0.3504 % 3,202.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3504 % 2,498.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.89 % 5.96 % 95,692 13.88 7 -0.4143 % 2,461.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.83 % 5.91 % 99,616 14.00 33 -0.9342 % 2,454.8
FixedReset 5.49 % 5.06 % 253,245 14.45 78 -1.3343 % 1,874.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.33 % 5.51 % 133,768 5.33 33 -0.4532 % 2,515.8
FloatingReset 2.80 % 4.29 % 64,866 5.69 11 -0.6531 % 2,096.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSE.PR.E FixedReset -7.36 % Not real, as the issue traded 32,700 shares in a range of 18.47-19.60 before closing at 17.88-19.00, 12×4. Almost all of the last 25 trades were at 19.00, with a few dipping as low as 18.87. I have not checked whether this lamentable state of affairs is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 6.27 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -5.64 % Real enough, as the issue traded 14,921 shares in a range of 18.10-19.60 before closing at 18.40-00, 1×1. Only two of the last twenty-five trades were executed below 18.80 and most were comfortably above 19.00. However, there were trades [for 100 shares apiece] at 18.55 and 18.45, timestamped 3:36, so I guess we can call this one “real enough”, while faulting the market maker for an unnecessarily volatile market.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -5.35 % This is real, as the issue traded 11,461 shares in a range of 18.21-20 before closing at 18.22-45, 3×2. The trade price slipped below 18.40 at 3:01 and remained there for the day’s last sixteen trades.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.22
Evaluated at bid price : 18.22
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -4.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 8.20 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -3.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 13.36
Evaluated at bid price : 13.36
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -3.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.53
Bid-YTW : 9.40 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -3.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.82
Bid-YTW : 8.63 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -3.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.31
Evaluated at bid price : 18.31
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -3.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.70
Bid-YTW : 8.12 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -3.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 22.39
Evaluated at bid price : 22.65
Bid-YTW : 6.11 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset -3.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -2.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.01
Bid-YTW : 8.57 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -2.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 16.35
Evaluated at bid price : 16.35
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -2.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.91
Evaluated at bid price : 18.91
Bid-YTW : 6.42 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.12
Evaluated at bid price : 19.12
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 14.75
Evaluated at bid price : 14.75
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset -2.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 16.85
Evaluated at bid price : 16.85
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -2.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 12.96
Evaluated at bid price : 12.96
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -2.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.48
Bid-YTW : 6.88 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 21.02
Evaluated at bid price : 21.02
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 14.68
Evaluated at bid price : 14.68
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.05
Evaluated at bid price : 17.05
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.04
Evaluated at bid price : 17.04
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.69
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 12.14
Evaluated at bid price : 12.14
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium -1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 24.23
Evaluated at bid price : 24.53
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset -1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.15
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.25
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.47
Evaluated at bid price : 19.47
Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.52
Evaluated at bid price : 17.52
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 16.73
Evaluated at bid price : 16.73
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.52
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.57
Evaluated at bid price : 19.57
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 16.71
Evaluated at bid price : 16.71
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.96
Evaluated at bid price : 18.96
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.30
Bid-YTW : 9.52 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.43
Evaluated at bid price : 17.43
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 21.15
Evaluated at bid price : 21.15
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 9.71
Evaluated at bid price : 9.71
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 19.57
Evaluated at bid price : 19.57
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.30
Bid-YTW : 6.32 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.92
Bid-YTW : 7.63 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 22.52
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 22.40
Evaluated at bid price : 22.66
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.37
Evaluated at bid price : 18.37
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.72
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.95
Bid-YTW : 10.00 %
FTS.PR.I FloatingReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 11.70
Evaluated at bid price : 11.70
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.49
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.22
Bid-YTW : 6.80 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-04-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.12
Evaluated at bid price : 18.12
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.65
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 10.80
Evaluated at bid price : 10.80
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.68
Evaluated at bid price : 17.68
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 12.40
Evaluated at bid price : 12.40
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 10.90
Evaluated at bid price : 10.90
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare 3.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.68
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.I FixedReset 203,946 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 23.10 and 99,800 at 23.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.16
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 154,838 Scotia crossed blocks of 48,500 and 70,000, both at 18.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.12
Evaluated at bid price : 18.12
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 84,381 Nesbitt crossed 50,400 at 17.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.15
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 75,757 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.04
Evaluated at bid price : 17.04
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 73,576 Scotia crossed 40,000 at 18.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 73,240 RBC crossed 25,000 at 17.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.35
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
There were 88 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 23.26 – 23.99
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.4573

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 17.88 – 19.00
Spot Rate : 1.1200
Average : 0.8576

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 6.27 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 13.36 – 13.96
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.3915

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 13.36
Evaluated at bid price : 13.36
Bid-YTW : 5.50 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 15.53 – 16.10
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.3677

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.53
Bid-YTW : 9.40 %

RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.05 – 22.50
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.2914

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 21.75
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %

POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium Quote: 24.53 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.4700
Average : 0.3137

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-09
Maturity Price : 24.23
Evaluated at bid price : 24.53
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %

Market Action

December 8, 2015

Good news! Litvak’s won his appeal!

In a ruling that will shape how the U.S. Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission pursue several similar cases already in the pipeline, a federal appeals court threw out Jesse Litvak’s March 2014 conviction for defrauding the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program and making false statements to the government. Prosecutors will retry charges of lying to buyers and sellers of mortgage-backed securities.

Tuesday’s decision forces the U.S. to bolster its case that traders who lie to customers are committing fraud. In it, the appeals court faulted the judge for excluding some defense evidence, saying the accused must be allowed to show that his actions were in keeping with how Wall Street does business.

A central issue in the Litvak case is whether it’s important for the buyer of a bond to know how much a trader paid for it. Prosecutors argued that Litvak’s lies about how much he paid constituted fraud. Litvak’s team compared their client to used-car salesman who isn’t expected to be honest about what he paid for a car: If a sophisticated bond-buyer agrees the price is fair, they argued, it doesn’t matter what the dealer originally paid.

Litvak’s case was last discussed on PrefBlog on August 13.

The Bank of Canada has acknowledged that its policy options have been widened:

Policy makers still have firepower to spur growth even with borrowing costs near zero, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said, citing unconventional policies and fiscal stimulus.

While the central bank doesn’t expect another crisis that will force it to resort to such policies, a number of tools are still available, including charging banks for deposits, forward guidance and asset purchases, Poloz said. Fiscal stimulus could be even more effective than monetary policy in extreme circumstances, he said.

“I certainly hope we won’t ever have to use these tools,” Poloz said Tuesday during a speech in Toronto. “However, in an uncertain world, a central bank has to be prepared for all eventualities.”

While Poloz sought to highlight the hypothetical nature of his comments, the speech comes amid growing concern for Canada’s economy as fresh signs of weakness in China and growing concerns about a global oil glut damp the outlook for commodity-producing nations.

Swaps trading suggests investors are pricing in a 25 percent chance of another rate cut by May, following two reductions this year that brought the benchmark rate to 0.5 percent.

I’m not reading much into this. The central banks just want to make their toolbox transparent, so that during the next crisis there will be fewer surprises to worry about. During the Credit Crunch you could almost see the Fed moving down the list … ‘do this, tick the box, see if it’s enough ….’

Meanwhile the central planners are touting micro-management of the economy:

“There are significant pockets of vulnerability created by the growth in mortgage debt in recent years,” according to Craig Alexander, a C.D. Howe researcher and former chief economist at Toronto Dominion Bank, and Paul Jacobson, president of the Canadian Association for Business Economics. “The majority of Canadians have been responsible in their borrowing, but the sustained low interest rate environment has encouraged a significant minority to take on considerably more mortgage debt relative to after-tax income.”

New Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who was chairman of C.D. Howe before entering politics, has said housing is one of the first briefings he took from his officials. Canada has long faced international warnings about the need to head off a housing crash like those seen in the U.S., the U.K. and Spain, and former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty acted several times to tighten lending rules.

Putting in new restrictions is difficult because those past changes have already slowed credit growth, and because the risks now are in a few segments of the market that make using a “blunt tool” approach counter-productive, the authors said.

Policy makers could set tougher underwriting rules on criteria such as credit scores and debt-service ratios, or raise the interest rate that tests a borrower’s ability to pay up later, Alexander and Jacobson wrote.

One tool to target Vancouver and Toronto would be raising the down payment requirement on more expensive homes, the report said. That echoes a proposal the finance department has been making this year, according to people familiar with those talks.

OSFI’s Deputy Superintendent Mark Zelmer gave a speech to the C.D. Howe Institute, Toronto, Ontario, December 8, 2015 titled Asset Managers and Global Financial Stability:

Liquidity mismatches could potentially contribute to instability in important financial markets

The first topic I would like to address relates to liquidity mismatches. Combining less liquid investments with short-notice redemption features for fund units gives rise to a potential misalignment between the redeemability of investment fund units versus the actual liquidity of their underlying investments. This mismatch may result in fragile demand for those investments if investors think they are more liquid than they really are. When times are good, everyone benefits. But if prospects dim and investors suddenly decide to rush to the exit gates, it could prove very disruptive for the markets in question, particularly if a fund has to quickly liquidate large blocks of securities to meet the redemption requests.

While most funds are well positioned to cope with normal redemption flows, their ability to cope with an unexpectedly large surge in redemption requests merits further exploration. As we shine light down this corridor, however, we should resist the temptation to treat investment fund liquidity management practices as a macro-prudential tool for cushioning markets from the actions of end-investors. Taken to extremes, that would slow markets’ processing of new information, which could give rise to some easy arbitrage opportunities. I do not think we need to give more sophisticated and nimble market participants new ways to profit at the expense of everyone else.

Leverage comes in many forms

Investment funds of all types also make use of financial derivatives to hedge risks and as a cheap way to establish investment positions. The latter is often prevalent in situations where cash markets are less liquid and positions can be established at lower cost through derivatives markets. This can, however, result in the creation of leverage within a fund when the values of the derivatives’ exposures change over the life of the contracts.

As was shown by the failure of Long-term Capital Management in 1998, global financial stability concerns can emerge in situations where banks supply the financing for these investment funds or serve as the principal counterparties for investment fund derivatives transactions. Of course, much has changed since then. There have been advances in asset manager and bank risk management practices, plus a number of regulatory measures to contain the amount of leverage in the global financial system.

Transferring investment mandates may not be as easy as some people think

The third potential vulnerability I want to highlight focuses on the challenges of replacing asset managers. Now, let me stress at the outset that the asset management industry has plenty of experience in transferring investment mandates from one asset manager to another, with no disruptions to markets or other parts of the financial system. A lot of credit is due to the asset managers in question, their advisers, custodians and the firms that specialize in providing transition services. But, if you take a snapshot of the global asset management sector at any point in time, you will see a small group of asset managers that clearly stands out from the rest in terms of the amount of assets they have under management. This begs the question of how easy would it be to transfer their investment mandates to other asset managers on short notice, especially if the need arose in a period when markets are under stress.

Presumably, such an event is most likely to arise in a situation where a very large asset manager is experiencing operational difficulties or challenges that inhibit its ability to deliver services as per investor expectations. If the issues are serious enough and the disruptions sufficiently prolonged, it is conceivable that investors could lose confidence in the funds offered by the asset manager and seek to either move their funds or accounts to another manager, or even liquidate their investments and re-establish them with another manager. Similar issues could also arise from a reputational risk perspective.

Nevertheless, it does beg the issue of what steps could be taken to quickly transfer investment mandates from one manager to another in a smooth fashion, so as to minimise the need for any actual redemptions of fund units by end-investors that would then trigger transactions in financial markets. As I noted at the outset, the asset management industry argues that such processes operate fairly smoothly in practice, given the role that transition managers and custodians play in facilitating transfers of funds and investor accounts from one manager to another. The industry is also quick to cite the recent PIMCO experience as a good example to that effect. And, certainly, that has been the experience to date. But, one cannot help but wonder whether the PIMCO episode would have played out so smoothly had it happened say, in the autumn of 2008, when the global financial system as a whole was in the midst of trying to cope with a major crisis.

Huh. That last point could be laying the ground for expropriation of investment management contracts.

On another note, it appears that nowadays even your car will rat you out:

“Attention!” the automated call from the black Ford Escort’s vehicle emergency system had said after detecting a crash and calling emergency number 911.

“A crash has occurred in a Ford vehicle. Press 1 at any time for location information or press 0 to speak with vehicle occupants.”

A recording of the call obtained by local station WPBF features Bernstein, a 57-year-old from Port Lucie, Florida, telling the dispatcher (repeatedly) that there hadn’t been any accident and that no, she hadn’t been drinking.

Although Bernstein initially denied it, there had, in fact, been two accidents.

The first was a hit-and-run on Monday afternoon last week (30 November).

The victim, Anna Preston, said she was struck from behind by a black vehicle that took off.

As the New York Daily News reports, after her car ratted her out, police went by Bernstein’s house to have a chat with her.

There, they saw the black Ford with a wrecked front-end, with silver paint from Preston’s car still on it.

So I understand they’re making a movie based on the Canadian preferred share market:

the-night-the-world-exploded
Click for Big

It was an incredibly awful day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 82bp, FixedResets losing an awesome 261bp and DeemedRetractibles down 97bp. The yield-to-worst on the HIMIPref™ FixedReset subindex is now 4.99% – a level not seen since late May, 2009. The Performance Highlights table is, of course, ridiculous, with bank issues being more prominent at the extreme bad end than usual. Volume was enormous – I’m not sure whether it is unprecedentedly enormous or not, but it’s certainly among the historic highs.

For those keeping score, TXPR is now down about 5.69% on the month to date and is now down to October 16 levels – about 2.53% above the low of October 14.

TXPL is down about 6.88% on the month to date and is also down to October 16 levels – about 2.81% above the October 14 low.

But take heart! There was a late day rally in TXPR:

TXPR_151208
Click for Big

… and in TXPL:

TXPL_151208
Click for Big
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.04 % 6.12 % 34,818 16.51 1 0.0000 % 1,540.9
FixedFloater 7.04 % 6.23 % 33,377 15.97 1 -2.5271 % 2,773.2
Floater 4.27 % 4.44 % 75,276 16.45 4 0.7276 % 1,774.7
OpRet 4.87 % 4.15 % 28,961 0.71 1 -0.0794 % 2,734.3
SplitShare 4.84 % 5.52 % 85,404 2.87 6 -0.6620 % 3,191.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.6620 % 2,489.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.86 % 5.91 % 94,764 13.90 7 -0.8445 % 2,472.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.77 % 5.88 % 99,912 14.05 33 -0.8221 % 2,478.0
FixedReset 5.42 % 4.99 % 244,070 14.51 78 -2.6133 % 1,900.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.30 % 5.43 % 130,510 5.33 33 -0.9703 % 2,527.2
FloatingReset 2.79 % 4.21 % 62,913 5.69 11 -1.3815 % 2,110.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
RY.PR.M FixedReset -6.91 % Reasonable enough, as the issue traded 66,593 shares in a range of 18.01-19.55 before closing at 18.20-60, 2×9. Most of the trades in the last half hour were closer to the closing ask, but there was some activity at 18.25 at 3:32pm. The VWAP was 18.74.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.20
Evaluated at bid price : 18.20
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -6.84 % Reasonable, as the issue traded 39,786 shares in a range of 17.40-18.70 before closing at 17.42-74, 5×1. Most trades in the last two minutes were below 17.50. VWAP was 17.79.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.42
Evaluated at bid price : 17.42
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -6.77 % Quite reasonable, as the issue traded 60,797 shares in a range of 18.51-19.70 before closing at 18.60-23, 5×5. Twenty of the last twenty-five trades were below 18.70. VWAP was 18.98.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.60
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset -6.58 % Quite reasonable, as the issue traded 71,991 shares in a range of 18.30-19.75 before closing at 18.45-60, 1×7. Twenty-three of the last twenty-five trades were at or below 18.50. VWAP was 18.78.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.45
Evaluated at bid price : 18.45
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -6.25 % Reasonable enough, as the issue traded 17,404 shares in a range of 19.36-91 before closing at 19.50-79, 7×10. Twenty-two of the last twenty-five trades were at or above 19.70. VWAP was 19.66.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -6.04 % Reasonable enough, as the issue traded 58,173 shares in a range of 18.73-20.18 before closing at 18.98-20, 6×100. Eighteen of the last twenty-five trades were below 19.00. VWAP was 19.27.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.98
Evaluated at bid price : 18.98
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset -5.55 % Quite reasonable, as the issue traded 251,922 shares in a range of 17.40-18.72 before closing at 17.71-83, 4×12. Twenty-one of the last twenty-five trades were at or below 17.80. VWAP was 17.93.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.71
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -5.31 % Reasonable, as the issue traded 32,668 shares in a range of 16.92-18.05 before closing at 17.11-39, 1×2. Twenty-one of the last twenty-five trades were at or below 17.20. VWAP was 17.48.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.11
Evaluated at bid price : 17.11
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset -4.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 16.99
Evaluated at bid price : 16.99
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -4.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.45
Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare -4.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 7.08 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset -4.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.35
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -4.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.26
Evaluated at bid price : 17.26
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -4.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.77
Evaluated at bid price : 18.77
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset -4.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.12
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset -4.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset -4.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 7.70 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -4.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset -4.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.69
Bid-YTW : 7.53 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -3.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -3.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -3.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 16.75
Evaluated at bid price : 16.75
Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -3.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset -3.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -3.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.42
Evaluated at bid price : 18.42
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -3.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.40
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -3.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset -3.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.52
Evaluated at bid price : 17.52
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset -3.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.47
Evaluated at bid price : 17.47
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset -3.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.73
Bid-YTW : 7.00 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset -3.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.51
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset -2.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.84
Evaluated at bid price : 17.84
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -2.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.42
Evaluated at bid price : 17.42
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.68
Bid-YTW : 7.82 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount -2.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 22.77
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -2.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -2.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 16.80
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -2.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.67
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset -2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.91
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
BNS.PR.C FloatingReset -2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.24
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
RY.PR.P Perpetual-Discount -2.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 23.86
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset -2.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -2.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.14
Evaluated at bid price : 17.14
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset -2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
NA.PR.Q FixedReset -2.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.09
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset -2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 24.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.36
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -2.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 13.25
Evaluated at bid price : 13.25
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.82
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -2.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.11
Bid-YTW : 8.90 %
RY.PR.W Perpetual-Discount -1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.65
Evaluated at bid price : 21.90
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset -1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 15.75
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.97
Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 23.49
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 13.65
Evaluated at bid price : 13.65
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 6.80 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 7.40 %
GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.81
Bid-YTW : 7.34 %
BNS.PR.B FloatingReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.39
Bid-YTW : 7.49 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset -1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.09
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.91
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
BNS.PR.N Deemed-Retractible -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-01-27
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.42
Bid-YTW : 7.93 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.68
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 13.26
Evaluated at bid price : 13.26
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 9.86
Evaluated at bid price : 9.86
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.07
Bid-YTW : 8.92 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.27 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 6.17 %
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.69
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
TD.PR.T FloatingReset -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.20
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 23.39
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
BNS.PR.M Deemed-Retractible -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.69
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.31
Bid-YTW : 7.65 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.45
Bid-YTW : 7.90 %
BNS.PR.L Deemed-Retractible -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.71
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 15.12
Evaluated at bid price : 15.12
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
TD.PR.Z FloatingReset -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.21
Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.66
Bid-YTW : 7.81 %
GWO.PR.P Deemed-Retractible -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.29
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.87
Evaluated at bid price : 19.87
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.16
Evaluated at bid price : 21.16
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
TD.PF.F Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 22.10
Evaluated at bid price : 22.44
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.83
Evaluated at bid price : 19.83
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.43
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 6.47 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.78
Evaluated at bid price : 22.02
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 19.27
Evaluated at bid price : 19.27
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.44
Bid-YTW : 8.12 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 10.80
Evaluated at bid price : 10.80
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 10.68
Evaluated at bid price : 10.68
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 9.84 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 4.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.O FixedReset 287,269 Desjardins crossed 248,400 at 17.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.45
Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 251,922 RBC crossed 203,800 at 17.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 17.71
Evaluated at bid price : 17.71
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 166,439 TD bought 40,500 from National at 24.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.91
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 150,200 TD sold 39,500 to CIBC at 25.00, and another 40,000 to RBC at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
BIP.PR.B FixedReset 113,268 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
BNS.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 80,383 CIBC bought 50,000 from TD at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.69
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
There were 94 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 15.51 – 17.50
Spot Rate : 1.9900
Average : 1.1428

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 15.51
Evaluated at bid price : 15.51
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.20 – 20.84
Spot Rate : 0.6400
Average : 0.3954

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %

RY.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 23.12 – 23.78
Spot Rate : 0.6600
Average : 0.4338

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.12
Bid-YTW : 4.66 %

PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 24.36 – 24.99
Spot Rate : 0.6300
Average : 0.4160

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 24.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.36
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.67 – 22.29
Spot Rate : 0.6200
Average : 0.4179

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.67
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %

TD.PR.S FixedReset Quote: 23.51 – 24.03
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3354

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.51
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %

Issue Comments

BIP.PR.B Settles Better than Expected On Anemic Volume

Brookfield Infrastructure has announced:

the completion of its previously announced issue of Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 3 (“Series 3 Preferred Units”) in the amount of $125,000,000. The offering was underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets, CIBC, Scotiabank, and TD Securities Inc.

Brookfield Infrastructure issued 5,000,000 Series 3 Preferred Units at a price of $25.00 per unit, for total gross proceeds of $125,000,000. Holders of the Series 3 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed distribution yielding 5.50% annually for the initial period ending December 31, 2020. Thereafter, the distribution rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 4.53%, and (ii) 5.50%. The Series 3 Preferred Units will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange this morning under the ticker symbol BIP.PR.B.

BIP.PR.B is a FixedReset, 5.50%+453M550 (Interest + ROC), announced December 1. The issue traded 113,268 shares today (consolidated exchanges) in a range of 24.35-58 before closing at 24.35-40, 8×40.

Given that the TXPL index is down 6.37% to December 8 from its December 1 level, the issue actually performed a little better than expected; but it remains to be seen how much of that is due to underwriter support. I’d have more confidence in the level if the volume was higher.

With some trepidation I am including this issue in the HIMIPref™ FixedReset subindex rather than the Interest-Bearing subindex, since I feel that the defining characteristic of the issue is its dividend formula rather than its dividend taxation status. I might change my mind later!

Vital statistics are:

BIP.PR.B FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-08
Maturity Price : 22.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
New Issues

New Issue: BNS FixedReset 5.50%+451

The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced:

a domestic public offering of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 34 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 34”).

Scotiabank has agreed to sell 12 million of Preferred Shares Series 34 to a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotia Capital Inc. on a bought deal basis. Scotiabank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part up to 48 hours before closing, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares Series 34 at the same offering price.

Scotiabank will issue Preferred Shares Series 34 priced at $25 per share and holders will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly fixed dividend for the initial period ending on and including April 25, 2021 in the amount of $1.3750 per share, to yield 5.50 per cent annually.

On or after April 26, 2021, Scotiabank may, at its option, with the prior approval of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (Canada), redeem in whole at any time or in part from time to time at a redemption price which is equal to par. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a rate equal to 4.51% over the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 34 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to non-cumulative floating rate preferred shares Series 35 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 35”) of Scotiabank on April 26, 2021 and on April 26 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Preferred Shares Series 35 will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 4.51%, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 35 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Preferred Shares Series 34 on April 26, 2026 and on April 26 every five years thereafter.

Closing is expected to occur on or after December 17, 2015. This domestic public offering is part of Scotiabank’s ongoing and proactive management of its Tier 1 capital structure.

Net proceeds from this transaction will be added to Scotiabank’s funds and will be used for general business purposes.

The issue has been assigned a provisional Pfd-2 rating by DBRS:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today assigned a provisional rating of Pfd-2 with a Stable trend to the Bank of Nova Scotia’s Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 34 (NVCC Preferred Shares or Series 34).

DBRS assigned the NVCC Preferred Shares a rating equal to the Bank’s intrinsic assessment of AA (low) less four rating notches, consistent with DBRS’s criteria titled “Rating Bank Capital Securities — Subordinated, Hybrid, Preferred & Contingent Capital Securities.”

This is Scotia’s first NVCC-compliant FixedReset issue, so there is no real point in performing an Implied Volatility analysis.

New Issues

New Issue: RY FixedReset 5.50%+453

Royal Bank of Canada has announced:

a domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative, 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series BK.

Royal Bank of Canada will issue 12 million Preferred Shares Series BK priced at $25 per share to raise gross proceeds of $300 million. The bank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares Series BK at the same offering price.

The Preferred Shares Series BK will yield 5.50 per cent annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Royal Bank of Canada, for the initial period ending May 24, 2021. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a rate equal to 4.53 per cent over the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield.

Subject to regulatory approval, on or after May 24, 2021, the bank may redeem the Preferred Shares Series BK in whole or in part at par. Holders of Preferred Shares Series BK will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series BL on May 24, 2021 and on May 24 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Preferred Shares Series BL will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly floating dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Royal Bank of Canada, at a rate equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 4.53 per cent. Holders of Preferred Shares Series BL will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Preferred Shares Series BK on May 24, 2026 and on May 24 every five years thereafter.

The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The expected closing date is December 16, 2015.

We routinely undertake funding transactions to maintain strong capital ratios and a cost effective capital structure. Net proceeds from this transaction will be used for general business purposes.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative, 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series BK, the size of the offering has been increased to 27 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $675 million. The bank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares Series BK at the same offering price. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The expected closing date is December 16, 2015.

We routinely undertake funding transactions to maintain strong capital ratios and a cost effective capital structure. Net proceeds from this transaction will be used for general business purposes.

$675-million! That’s a monster issue!

Implied Volatility analysis reveals that this issue – contrary to most new issues – is attractively priced, with a good concession to the market. Although the four extant NVCC-compliant issues appear to form a steeper curve without the influence of the new issue than with it, the Implied Volatility with the new issue included in the analysis is still a very high 24%. I consider this value to be ridiculously high; hence I expect a flattening of the curve; hence I consider the new issue more likely to outperform its peers than otherwise.

impVol_RY_151208
Click for Big

Update: Assiduous Reader prefQC reminds me in the comments that I neglected to discuss the lack of a floor rate on future resets of the issue.

The question of whether banks could issue NVCC-compliant preferred shares with a floor on future resets was first discussed when the feature first appeared, in the post New Issue: CU FixedReset, 4.50%+369M450, with a little information coming later in the comments to New Issue (Private): BMO FixedReset (?) 5.85%+???.

There is no authoritative new information available – but I will infer from the absence of a reset floor from this issue and from the New Issue: BNS FixedReset 5.50%+451 that was also announced today that the feature has been disallowed by OSFI. So, whatever one might think of my reasoning, I came up with the wrong answer.

As is always the case, OSFI’s traditions of secrecy, contempt for investors and general incompetence are well summed up in the fact that they have published no commentary on this issue.

Update, 2015-12-10: I’ve heard a whisper from the street that OSFI said ‘no’ to a minimum reset.

Update, 2015-12-18: Assiduous Reader prefobsessed alerted me to a Barry Critchley column titled Banks have to pay up if they want to issue preferred shares: Royal and BNS offer 5.50% in which he makes a passing, but unsupported assertion regarding OSFI’s views on floor rates for NVCC-compliant issues:

Other pref share issuers also face a similar environment: if they want to raise capital in this form they have to pay up. Last week, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners raised $125 million at a coupon of 5.50 per cent. But other issuers have more flexibility than the banks: they can include a so-called floor coupon, which means that the new rate in five years will at least be equal to the current coupon. The bank’s regulator OSFI has ruled that option out for the banks, at least for the time being.

Market Action

December 7, 2015

Oil got whacked today:

Oil fell to the lowest level in more than six years amid speculation that a record global glut will be prolonged after OPEC effectively abandoned its longtime strategy of limiting output to control prices.

West Texas Intermediate for January delivery sank $2.32, or 5.8 percent, to settle at $37.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since February 2009. The volume of all futures traded was 63 percent above the 100-day average at 2:40 p.m.

Tumbling oil helped spur a rout in energy stocks, which were the worst performers on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Williams Cos., a pipeline company, dropped 17 percent, making it the worst performer on the S&P 500 Monday. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp., the biggest U.S. energy producers, fell 2.9 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively. The pain wasn’t limited to the U.S., as BP Plc slipped 3.4 percent and Royal Dutch Shell Plc decreased 4.2 percent.

Other places, too!

Oil’s struggles mean more suffering for the Canadian dollar. It fell .84 of a cent to 74 cents (U.S.) on Monday, its lowest since June of 2004. Energy products represented roughly a quarter of Canada’s exports last year, and oil’s slump has been the key factor in the loonie’s 21-per-cent nosedive against its U.S. counterpart since the middle of 2014.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s oil and gas index tumbled 6 per cent, the main factor in a 2.4-per-cent slide in the S&P/TSX composite index. Energy stocks make up nearly a fifth of the composite index. Companies with the highest debt levels and focus on oil took the biggest hits. Penn West Petroleum Ltd. sank nearly18 per cent, and Baytex Energy Corp. fell 17 per cent.

Things may seem bleak, but take heart! There’s some more drone news today:

The ranks of older and frail adults are growing rapidly in the developed world, raising alarms about how society is going to help them take care of themselves in their own homes.

Naira Hovakimyan has an idea: drones.

The University of Illinois roboticist recently received a $1.5 million grant from the National Science Foundation to explore the idea of designing small autonomous drones to perform simple household chores, like retrieving a bottle of medicine from another room. Dr. Hovakimyan acknowledged that the idea might seem off-putting to many, but she believes that drones not only will be safe, but will become an everyday fixture in elder care within a decade or two.

And for preferred share investors …

00GasExplosionOilField
Click for Big

It was a horrible day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 124bp, FixedResets down 99bp and DeemedRetractibles off 9bp. Let’s just not talk about the Performance Highlights table, OK? Volume was very, very extremely much huge, enlivened by a stack of after-hours contingent crosses by Nesbitt.

For those keeping score, TXPR is now down about 4.12% on the month to date and is now down to October 19 levels – about 4.23% above the low of October 14.

TXPL is down about 5.33% on the month to date and is also down to October 19 levels – about 4.52% above the October 14 low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 5.04 % 6.12 % 35,311 16.51 1 -9.0909 % 1,540.9
FixedFloater 6.86 % 6.07 % 31,670 16.18 1 -4.6143 % 2,845.1
Floater 4.30 % 4.50 % 74,465 16.34 4 -1.2573 % 1,761.9
OpRet 4.86 % 4.02 % 29,400 0.72 1 -0.0397 % 2,736.5
SplitShare 4.80 % 5.50 % 85,917 2.87 6 -0.1839 % 3,212.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1839 % 2,506.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.81 % 5.84 % 88,033 14.00 7 -0.3412 % 2,493.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.73 % 5.81 % 99,680 14.15 33 -1.2382 % 2,498.5
FixedReset 5.28 % 4.85 % 232,665 14.77 77 -0.9915 % 1,951.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.25 % 5.34 % 130,657 5.34 33 -0.0855 % 2,552.0
FloatingReset 2.75 % 3.95 % 62,476 5.71 11 -0.5768 % 2,140.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.E Ratchet -9.09 % Sort-of reasonable, as the issue traded 4,600 shares in a range of 13.35-14.50 before closing at 13.50-14.59, 3×5. There were only five trades after 2:30pm, totaling 1400 shares, commencing with a trade at 14.10 and sporadically declining to 13.35. The VWAP was 14.21. I have not checked whether this lamentable state of affairs is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset -6.65 % Not entirely unreasonable, since the issue traded 18,101 shares in a range of 17.40-18.64 before closing at 17.42-74, 3×1. VWAP was 17.96.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.42
Bid-YTW : 8.23 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -6.26 % Ridiculous, as the issue traded 6,528 shares in a range of 23.25-97 before closing at 22.03-00, 5×3. VWAP was 23.47. I have not checked whether this lamentable state of affairs is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 21.74
Evaluated at bid price : 22.03
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset -5.79 % Entirely reasonable, as the issue traded 19,063 shares in a range of 18.57-19.86 before closing at 18.70-26, 1×1. VWAP was 19.17; There were quite a few trades below the closing bid after 3:30pm.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.70
Evaluated at bid price : 18.70
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -4.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset -4.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -4.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.68
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -3.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.54
Bid-YTW : 7.48 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -3.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 7.51 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -3.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.06
Bid-YTW : 9.94 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -3.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 21.91
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset -2.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 20.15
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset -2.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.12
Evaluated at bid price : 18.12
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -2.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 22.08
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset -2.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -2.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.01
Evaluated at bid price : 18.01
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -2.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 20.69
Evaluated at bid price : 20.69
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 10.00
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset -2.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.43
Bid-YTW : 8.62 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -2.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.78 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.37
Evaluated at bid price : 19.37
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
PWF.PR.A Floater -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 12.25
Evaluated at bid price : 12.25
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 7.16 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.68
Evaluated at bid price : 19.68
Bid-YTW : 6.29 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.76
Evaluated at bid price : 19.76
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Discount -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 23.70
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.11
Evaluated at bid price : 18.11
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 13.86
Evaluated at bid price : 13.86
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 17.55
Evaluated at bid price : 17.55
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 21.56
Evaluated at bid price : 21.82
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.47
Evaluated at bid price : 19.47
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 20.05
Evaluated at bid price : 20.05
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 10.52
Evaluated at bid price : 10.52
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 11.22
Evaluated at bid price : 11.22
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset -1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.31
Bid-YTW : 8.72 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.58
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 13.54
Evaluated at bid price : 13.54
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.36
Bid-YTW : 9.29 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.46
Bid-YTW : 9.37 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.37
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 12.38
Evaluated at bid price : 12.38
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 23.41
Evaluated at bid price : 23.70
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 22.28
Evaluated at bid price : 22.55
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 17.35
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.69
Bid-YTW : 7.73 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 23.56
Evaluated at bid price : 23.83
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.53
Evaluated at bid price : 19.53
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.89
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
ENB.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 23.48
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 5.82 %
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 23.74
Evaluated at bid price : 24.05
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.57
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 17.93
Evaluated at bid price : 17.93
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.72
Bid-YTW : 7.26 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.51
Bid-YTW : 9.97 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 12.30
Evaluated at bid price : 12.30
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
GWO.PR.S Deemed-Retractible 5.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.26
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 313,635 Nesbitt crossed 293,800 at 18.82 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 292,516 Nesbitt crossed 274,100 at 18.60 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 7.51 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 271,995 Nesbitt crossed 251,200 at 19.58 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.53
Evaluated at bid price : 19.53
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset 265,625 Nesbitt crossed 260,000 at 19.65 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 255,232 Nesbitt crossed 228,400 at 19.83 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.75
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 203,405 Nesbitt crossed 184,800 at 18.40 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.12
Evaluated at bid price : 18.12
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 185,974 Nesbitt crossed 166,400 at 15.43 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 15.30
Evaluated at bid price : 15.30
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 184,737 Nesbitt crossed 178,700 at 24.40 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 23.90
Evaluated at bid price : 24.39
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 171,252 Nesbitt crossed 159,900 at 20.31 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 20.15
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 168,241 Nesbitt crossed 152,100 at 19.50 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.37
Evaluated at bid price : 19.37
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 154,478 RBC crossed 14,100 at 17.55. Desjardins crossed 101,600 at 17.29.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 17.35
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 4.98 %
CU.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 150,827 Nesbitt crossed 141,600 at 22.41 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 22.08
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
RY.PR.P Perpetual-Discount 138,408 Nesbitt crossed 137,000 at 24.79 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 24.41
Evaluated at bid price : 24.79
Bid-YTW : 5.37 %
BNS.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 138,241 Nesbitt crossed 126,500 at 25.01 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
BNS.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 135,762 Nesbitt crossed 127,900 at 25.02 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
RY.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 124,132 RBC crossed 49,400 at 24.82. Nesbitt crossed 61,700 at 24.78 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.77
Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 117,469 Nesbitt crossed 102,700 at 18.74 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.37
Evaluated at bid price : 18.37
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
TD.PF.F Perpetual-Discount 117,273 Nesbitt crossed 114,200 at 22.72 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 22.39
Evaluated at bid price : 22.69
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 116,350 Nesbitt crossed 89,700 at 19.72 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 19.56
Evaluated at bid price : 19.56
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 114,826 Nesbitt crossed 106,200 at 25.20 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 112,153 Desjardins crossed 91,400 at 18.53.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.11
Evaluated at bid price : 18.11
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium 110,292 Nesbitt crossed 108,400 at 25.28 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 24.93
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 109,903 Nesbitt crossed 100,200 at 25.34 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-01-06
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : -1.41 %
BMO.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 109,414 Nesbitt crossed 102,700 at 23.85 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 23.48
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 108,170 Nesbitt crossed 99,500 at 21.21 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.12
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 104,967 Nesbitt crossed 99,100 at 20.75 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.72
Bid-YTW : 7.26 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 104,603 Nesbitt crossed 101,100 at 21.87 after hours as a contingent cross.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.61
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
There were 68 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
VNR.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 18.01 – 19.00
Spot Rate : 0.9900
Average : 0.6495

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 18.01
Evaluated at bid price : 18.01
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %

ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.03 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.9700
Average : 0.6410

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 21.74
Evaluated at bid price : 22.03
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 20.15 – 20.98
Spot Rate : 0.8300
Average : 0.6028

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 20.15
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 5.56 %

TD.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 20.69 – 21.35
Spot Rate : 0.6600
Average : 0.4349

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 20.69
Evaluated at bid price : 20.69
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.20 – 25.91
Spot Rate : 0.7100
Average : 0.5014

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %

BAM.PR.E Ratchet Quote: 13.50 – 14.59
Spot Rate : 1.0900
Average : 0.8896

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-07
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %

MAPF

MAPF Portfolio Composition: November 2015

Turnover edged up in November, to about 11%.

There is extreme segmentation in the marketplace, with OSFI’s NVCC rule changes in February 2011 having had the effect of splitting the formerly relatively homogeneous Straight Perpetual class of preferreds into three parts:

  • Unaffected Straight Perpetuals
  • DeemedRetractibles explicitly subject to the rules (banks)
  • DeemedRetractibles considered by me, but not (yet!) by the market, to be likely to be explicitly subject to the rules in the future (insurers and insurance holding companies)

This segmentation, and the extreme valuation differences between the segments, has cut down markedly on the opportunities for trading.

To make this more clear, it used to be that there were 70-odd Straight Perpetuals and I was more or less indifferent as to which ones I owned (subject, of course, to issuer concentration concerns and other risk management factors). Thus, if any one of these 70 were to go down in price by – say – $0.25, I would quite often have something in inventory that I’d be willing to swap for it. The segmentation means that I am no longer indifferent; in addition to checking the valuation of a potential buy to other Straights, I also have to check its peer group. This cuts down on the potential for trading.

And, of course, the same segmentation has the same effect on trading opportunities between FixedReset issues.

There is no real hope that this situation will be corrected in the near-term. OSFI has indicated that the long-promised “Draft Definition of Capital” for insurers will not be issued “for public consultation in late 2012 or early 2013”, as they fear that it might encourage speculation in the marketplace. It is not clear why OSFI is so afraid of informed speculation, since the constant speculation in the marketplace is currently less informed than it would be with a little bit of regulatory clarity.

As a result of this delay, I have extended the Deemed Maturity date for insurers and insurance holding companies by three years (to 2025-1-31), in the expectation that when OSFI finally does provide clarity, they will allow the same degree of lead-in time for these companies as they did for banks. This had a major effect on the durations of preferred shares subject to the change but, fortunately, not much on their calculated yields as most of these issues were either trading near par when the change was made or were trading at sufficient premium that a par call was expected on economic grounds. However, with the declines in the market over the past nine months, the expected capital gain on redemption of the insurance-issued DeemedRetractibles has become an important component of the calculated yield.

Due to further footdragging by OSFI, I will be extending the DeemedMaturity date for insurance issues by another two years in the near future.

Sectoral distribution of the MAPF portfolio on November 30 was as follows:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2015-11-30
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 0.5% (+0.5) 5.72% 5.09
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualDiscount 13.7% (+7.5) 5.68% 14.40
Fixed-Reset 60.8% (-10.2) 7.56% 10.23
Deemed-Retractible 5.9% (-2.6) 6.56% 7.23
FloatingReset 7.8% (+4.6) 7.31% 11.80
Scraps (Various) 11.3% (-0.1) 6.97% 12.92
Cash -0.1% (+0.1) 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 7.15% 11.03
Totals and changes will not add precisely due to rounding. Bracketted figures represent change from October month-end. Cash is included in totals with duration and yield both equal to zero.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company. These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-3 (insurers and insurance holding companies), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See OSFI Does Not Grandfather Extant Tier 1 Capital, CM.PR.D, CM.PR.E, CM.PR.G: NVCC Status Confirmed and the January, February, March and June, 2011, editions of PrefLetter for the rationale behind this analysis. (all recent editions have a short summary of the argument included in the “DeemedRetractible” section)

Note that the estimate for the time this will become effective for insurers and insurance holding companies was extended by three years in April 2013, due to the delays in OSFI’s providing clarity on the issue.

Calculations of resettable instruments are performed assuming a constant GOC-5 rate of 0.92% and a constant 3-Month Bill rate of 0.45%

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.). MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2015-11-30
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 0 (0)
Pfd-1(low) 16.8% (0)
Pfd-2(high) 38.9% (+0.7)
Pfd-2 3.1% (+1.9)
Pfd-2(low) 30.0% (-2.6)
Pfd-3(high) 5.5% (-0.3)
Pfd-3 3.2% (+0.1)
Pfd-3(low) 2.0% (0)
Pfd-4(high) 0% (0)
Pfd-4 0%
Pfd-4(low) 0% (0)
Pfd-5(high) 0% (0)
Pfd-5 0.6% (+0.1)
Cash -0.1% (+0.1)
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding. Bracketted figures represent change from October month-end.
The fund holds a position in AZP.PR.C, which is rated P-5 by S&P and is unrated by DBRS
A position held in NPI.PR.C is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-3(high)” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-3(high).
A position held in INE.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-3” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-3.

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2015-11-30
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 2.5% (+0.2)
$50,000 – $100,000 14.1% (+4.4)
$100,000 – $200,000 56.1% (-11.3)
$200,000 – $300,000 17.2% (+4.1)
>$300,000 10.3% (+2.5)
Cash -0.1% (+0.1)
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding. Bracketted figures represent change from October month-end.

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available the fund’s web page. The fund may be purchased either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission). Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

A similar portfolio composition analysis has been performed on the Claymore Preferred Share ETF (symbol CPD) (and other funds) as of August 31, 2012, and published in the October (mainly methodology), November (most funds), and December (ZPR) 2012, PrefLetter. While direct comparisons are difficult due to the introduction of the DeemedRetractible class of preferred share (see above) it is fair to say:

  • MAPF credit quality is better
  • MAPF liquidity is a bit lower
  • MAPF Yield is higher
  • Weightings
    • MAPF is less exposed to Straight Perpetuals (including DeemedRetractibles)
    • MAPF is less exposed to Operating Retractibles
    • MAPF is more exposed to SplitShares
    • MAPF is less exposed to FixFloat / Floater / Ratchet
    • MAPF is overweighted in FixedResets