November 30, 2011

The Competition Bureau is leaning against TMX / Maple:

Dealing a major blow to the proposed acquisition of TMX Group, Canada’s Competition Bureau has informed the 13 financial institutions behind the takeover that it has “serious concerns” with their plan.

On Tuesday competition commissioner Melanie Aitken privately informed the consortium, named Maple Group Acquisition Corp., that she has concerns “about the likely competitive effects of the proposed transactions in the current environment, primarily in connection with equities trading and clearing and settlement services in Canada,” according to a statement from Maple Group.

The central banks are mitigating market discipline:

Six central banks led by the Federal Reserve made it cheaper for banks to borrow dollars in emergencies in a global effort to ease Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis.

Stocks rallied worldwide, commodities surged and yields on most European debt fell on the show of force from central banks aimed at easing strains in financial markets. The cost for European banks to borrow dollars dropped from the highest in three years, tempering concerns about the euro’s worsening crisis after leaders said they’d failed to boost the region’s bailout fund as much as planned.

The premium banks pay to borrow dollars overnight from central banks will fall by half a percentage point to 50 basis points, the Fed said today in a statement in Washington. The so- called dollar swap lines will be extended by six months to Feb. 1, 2013. The Fed coordinated the move with the European Central Bank and the central banks of Canada, Switzerland, Japan and the U.K.

The six central banks also agreed to create temporary bilateral swap programs so funding can be provided in any of the currencies “should market conditions so warrant.” Those swap lines were also authorized through Feb. 1, 2013.

I won’t go so far as to say I don’t like it, but I will say that I’m deeply suspicious. Central Bank financing should be available, certainly, for solvent but illiquid banks, but these loans should be at punitive, not concessionary rates.

With overnight money so cheap, the cost of failing a trade is derisory, so the Fed’s Treasury Market Practice Group has suggested a surcharge that effectively puts a floor of 3% on fail money. It is strictly voluntary, of course, BUT THE FED WOULD REALLY, REALLY LIKE YOU TO DO THIS!

It was a modestly down day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 12bp, FixedResets off 3bp and DeemedRetractibles down 8bp. Volatility was good. Volume was above average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.32%, equivalent to 6.92% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield about 4.8% so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (also called the Seniority Spread) is now about 210bp, a significant widening from the 195bp reported November 23 as PerpetualDiscounts got smacked for 17bp dividend yield on the week, while long corporates edged up only 5bp.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3259 % 2,095.4
FixedFloater 4.86 % 4.59 % 29,148 17.15 1 1.2422 % 3,172.9
Floater 3.43 % 3.45 % 151,508 18.57 2 -0.3259 % 2,262.5
OpRet 4.96 % 0.93 % 53,144 1.46 7 0.0165 % 2,479.2
SplitShare 5.84 % 6.75 % 59,497 5.14 3 -0.3253 % 2,515.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0165 % 2,267.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.58 % 3.32 % 98,470 0.41 13 -0.0135 % 2,154.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.31 % 5.32 % 103,649 14.66 17 -0.1159 % 2,293.8
FixedReset 5.12 % 3.08 % 214,440 2.46 64 -0.0315 % 2,338.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.06 % 4.44 % 195,756 3.85 46 0.0755 % 2,216.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 22.97
Evaluated at bid price : 23.41
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 23.92
Evaluated at bid price : 24.37
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.02
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.47
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 22.87
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.56
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 23.61
Evaluated at bid price : 26.51
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 257,712 Nesbitt crossed 132,800 at 24.90; Scotia crossed 30,000 at the same price.YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 24.57
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 89,995 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
RY.PR.Y FixedReset 52,274 TD crossed 48,800 at 27.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-11-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.25
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 50,595 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 24.74
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
CM.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 42,460 TD crossed 25,000 at 25.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
CM.PR.D Perpetual-Premium 38,926 Scotia crossed 30,000 at 25.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.41
Bid-YTW : 2.86 %
There were 37 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IAG.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 26.11 – 26.70
Spot Rate : 0.5900
Average : 0.4182

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %

BNA.PR.E SplitShare Quote: 22.71 – 23.17
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3013

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.71
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %

PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 25.00 – 25.49
Spot Rate : 0.4900
Average : 0.3619

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2041-11-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %

POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.21 – 25.51
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2046

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-01-05
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %

MFC.PR.A OpRet Quote: 25.06 – 25.32
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1774

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2015-12-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %

NA.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 26.91 – 27.15
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1624

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.91
Bid-YTW : 3.15 %

2 Responses to “November 30, 2011”

  1. […] (also called the Seniority Spread) is now 195bp, a significant tightening from the 210bp reported November 30 as PerpetualDiscounts have come […]

  2. […] MAPF Portfolio Composition: November 2011 analysis (which is greater than the 5.32% index yield on November 30). Given such reinvestment, the sustainable yield would be $10.4511 * 0.0579 = $0.6051, down from […]

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