November 25, 2015

The UK government is bringing micromanagement of the economy to new levels:

Buy-to-let landlords have been hit by the second major tax hike in less than a year, as Chancellor George Osborne took action against the “growing crisis of home ownership” in Britain.

Property investors will be hit by a 3pc rise in stamp duty from 1 April 2016, and the surcharge will also apply to people buying second homes. It means the tax bill on a buy-to-let property costing £250,000 will jump from £2,500 to £8,800.

Mr Osborne also announced a London Help to Buy initiative, which will allow more young people to get on the housing ladder in the capital, where the average house price for a first-time buyer is now an eye-watering £385,000. The scheme will offer buyers with a 5pc deposit a loan of up to 40pc of the value of a new build home, interest-free for five years.

It was another mixed, mostly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 12bp, FixedResets down 44bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 20bp. The Performance Highlights table is mostly negative, but still showing a lot of churn. Volume was extremely high.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151125
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 19.22 to be $1.19 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $0.87 cheap at its bid price of 12.80.

impVol_MFC_151125
Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.I, resetting at +286bp on 2017-9-19, bid at 22.67 to be 0.23 rich, while MFC.PR.K resetting at +222bp on 2018-9-19, is bid at 19.25 to be 0.42 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151125
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.04 to be $1.16 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 20.91 and appears to be $0.89 rich.

impVol_FTS_151125
Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 18.85, looks $0.65 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.16 and is $0.65 cheap.

pairs_FR_151125
Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.35%, with one outlier above +0.50%. There is one junk outlier below -1.50%.

pairs_FF_151125
Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.29 % 5.16 % 32,687 17.62 1 -0.6250 % 1,807.8
FixedFloater 6.29 % 5.53 % 27,994 16.86 1 -2.2654 % 3,101.9
Floater 4.32 % 4.34 % 84,528 16.67 3 -1.7386 % 1,826.1
OpRet 4.86 % 3.63 % 31,441 0.75 1 0.2783 % 2,740.8
SplitShare 4.76 % 5.43 % 132,884 4.34 5 0.1479 % 3,219.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1479 % 2,512.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.79 % 0.57 % 85,153 0.08 6 0.0198 % 2,510.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.58 % 5.63 % 89,426 14.44 33 -0.1223 % 2,568.0
FixedReset 4.99 % 4.66 % 222,822 15.12 76 -0.4367 % 2,054.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.16 % 5.06 % 119,774 5.38 33 0.2018 % 2,585.3
FloatingReset 2.60 % 3.75 % 60,630 5.74 10 -0.0358 % 2,184.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -3.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 12.80
Evaluated at bid price : 12.80
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset -2.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.19
Evaluated at bid price : 18.19
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -2.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 10.72
Evaluated at bid price : 10.72
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset -2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.81
Evaluated at bid price : 18.81
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -2.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 16.04
Evaluated at bid price : 16.04
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.10
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -2.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.58
Evaluated at bid price : 18.58
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.41
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.17
Evaluated at bid price : 20.17
Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.88
Evaluated at bid price : 18.88
Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.36
Evaluated at bid price : 20.36
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 11.03
Evaluated at bid price : 11.03
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 21.37
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 16.60
Evaluated at bid price : 16.60
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset -1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 15.10
Evaluated at bid price : 15.10
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset -1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 19.98
Evaluated at bid price : 19.98
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.40
Bid-YTW : 9.49 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.74
Evaluated at bid price : 20.74
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.11
Evaluated at bid price : 20.11
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.75
Evaluated at bid price : 18.75
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.68
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 12.01
Evaluated at bid price : 12.01
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 14.14
Evaluated at bid price : 14.14
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 21.26
Evaluated at bid price : 21.26
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.21
Bid-YTW : 6.34 %
NA.PR.Q FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.56
Bid-YTW : 6.64 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.69
Bid-YTW : 9.95 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 14.19
Evaluated at bid price : 14.19
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.L FixedReset 113,750 Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 50,000 each, both at 25.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 54,447 Nesbitt crossed 13,800 at 18.73.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.68
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 45,287 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 43,956 Nesbitt crossed 13,00 at 18.81.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.74
Evaluated at bid price : 18.74
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 42,814 Scotia crossed 20,000 at 15.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 15.10
Evaluated at bid price : 15.10
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 40,570 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
There were 61 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 19.22 – 19.70
Spot Rate : 0.4800
Average : 0.2951

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 19.22
Evaluated at bid price : 19.22
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 19.25 – 19.81
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.4089

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 6.78 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 20.41 – 20.84
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3062

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 20.41
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %

BAM.PR.E Ratchet Quote: 15.90 – 16.63
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.6087

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.90
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %

BMO.PR.R FloatingReset Quote: 22.64 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2615

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.64
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.95 – 22.29
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2444

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-11-25
Maturity Price : 21.67
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %

2 Responses to “November 25, 2015”

  1. BarleyandHops says:

    re The Stamp Tax. Reflection –

    Toronto

    Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT)

    Up to and including $55,000.00 X 0.5% of total property value
    From $55,000.01 to $400,000.00 X 1% of total property value
    Over $400,000.00 X 2% of total property value

    Ontario

    Provincial Land Transfer Tax (PLTT)

    Up to $55,000 X 0.5% of total property value
    From $55,000 to $250,000 X 1% of total property value
    From $250,000 to $400,000 X 1.5% of total property value
    From $400,000 up X 2% of total property value
    The City of Toronto levies an additional LTT on Toronto real estate in addition to the provincial rate.

    Then again first time buyers are given a break so all is good.

    🙂

    Happy Thanksgiving

  2. jiHymas says:

    My objection to the UK’s increase in stamp tax isn’t with respect to the level, but to the idea that it’s selectively applied to investors and buyers of second homes.

    I also object to the Ontario exemption for first-time buyers.

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