December 31, 2015

The federal Competition Bureau has heretofore been best known for its decision, reported July 4, 2012, to allow the banks to reduce competition in the Canadian financial market, provided extra payments were made to their buddies at the OSC. It would seem that the Bureau has been very impressed by the OSC’s ability to fund puppet groups providing employment for their buddies at taxpayer expense and have decided that this is just too good a deal to turn down:

As part of a consent agreement with the Competition Bureau, Telus will issue rebates of up to $7.34 million to certain current and former wireless customers after the Bureau concluded that Telus made, or permitted to be made, false or misleading representations in advertisements for premium text messages in pop‑up ads, apps and on social media.

Telus will also donate a total of $250,000 to the Ryerson University Privacy and Big Data Institute; Éducaloi, a non‑profit organization dedicated to helping the public understand their rights and responsibilities under the law; and the Centre de recherche en droit public de l’Université de Montréal.

It’s nice work, if you can get it!

Canadian preferred share investors celebrated the first calendar week of No More Tax Loss Selling!

party
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It was an excellent day overall for the Canadian preferred share market, although DeemedRetractibles provided a reminder of what 2015 was like, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 63bp, FixedResets up 93bp and DeemedRetractibles off 18bp. The Performance Highlights table continues to show lots of churn. Volume was virtually non-existent.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_151231
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TRP.PR.A, which resets 2019-12-31 at +192, is bid at 16.46 to be $0.50 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2016-1-30 at +154, is $1.03 cheap at its bid price of 12.70.

impVol_MFC_151231
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Most expensive is MFC.PR.L, resetting at +216bp on 2019-6-19, bid at 20.42 to be 0.47 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 22.59 to be 0.66 cheap.

impVol_BAM_151231
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The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 16.80 to be $1.56 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp on 2020-6-30 is bid at 22.10 and appears to be $0.73 rich.

impVol_FTS_151231
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FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 19.13, looks $0.70 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 18.40 and is $0.53 cheap.

pairs_FR_151231A
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Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.09%, with two outliers above -0.50%, including the newly created GWO.PR.N / GWO.PR.O pair. There are four junk outliers above -0.50%, including the newly created FFH.PR.I / FFH.PR.J pair.

pairs_FF_151231
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Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.68 % 5.67 % 29,722 17.08 1 0.6944 % 1,662.5
FixedFloater 6.81 % 6.03 % 37,769 16.17 1 3.7175 % 2,865.7
Floater 4.18 % 4.32 % 79,998 16.76 4 -0.3306 % 1,828.4
OpRet 4.84 % 3.69 % 24,986 0.65 1 0.3172 % 2,749.5
SplitShare 4.80 % 5.55 % 83,852 1.83 6 0.1454 % 3,217.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1454 % 2,510.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.75 % 2.81 % 91,918 0.08 7 0.1017 % 2,535.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.60 % 5.66 % 104,639 14.38 33 0.6347 % 2,567.6
FixedReset 4.92 % 4.26 % 259,128 14.92 81 0.9296 % 2,094.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.09 % 128,555 5.31 33 -0.1768 % 2,599.6
FloatingReset 2.80 % 4.15 % 68,430 5.64 12 0.1337 % 2,159.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -2.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 12.20
Evaluated at bid price : 12.20
Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 8.34 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 7.19 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.69
Bid-YTW : 7.09 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.22
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.01
Evaluated at bid price : 20.01
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.99
Bid-YTW : 8.73 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.51
Evaluated at bid price : 20.51
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.46
Evaluated at bid price : 19.46
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.89
Evaluated at bid price : 20.89
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.59
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.05
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.20
Evaluated at bid price : 20.20
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.17
Evaluated at bid price : 20.17
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 4.06 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.51
Evaluated at bid price : 19.51
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset 1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.25
Evaluated at bid price : 23.55
Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
BNS.PR.D FloatingReset 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.46
Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.13
Evaluated at bid price : 19.13
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset 1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.41
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.18
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.66
Bid-YTW : 8.20 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset 1.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.95
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.51
Evaluated at bid price : 19.51
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.84
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 3.39 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.43
Evaluated at bid price : 19.43
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 1.97 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.64
Evaluated at bid price : 19.64
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.76
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.74
Evaluated at bid price : 20.74
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.91
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 2.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 16.80
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 2.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.84
Evaluated at bid price : 19.84
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 2.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 22.97
Evaluated at bid price : 23.24
Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
FTS.PR.I FloatingReset 2.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 12.75
Evaluated at bid price : 12.75
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 2.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.11
Evaluated at bid price : 20.11
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 2.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 12.70
Evaluated at bid price : 12.70
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 3.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 20.69
Evaluated at bid price : 20.69
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 3.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.38
Evaluated at bid price : 19.38
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 3.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.77
Evaluated at bid price : 19.77
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 3.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 13.10
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater 3.72 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.95
Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 3.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 15.92
Evaluated at bid price : 15.92
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 3.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 3.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 4.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 4.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 9.10 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 5.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 18.47
Evaluated at bid price : 18.47
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 44,160 RBC crossed 34,300 at 15.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.99
Bid-YTW : 8.73 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 21,263 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 16.80
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset 18,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.77
Evaluated at bid price : 19.77
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 12,950 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 12,929 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 13.10
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 12,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 9.10 %
There were 3 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 18.80 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 1.2000
Average : 0.8799

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 18.80
Evaluated at bid price : 18.80
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 19.43 – 20.07
Spot Rate : 0.6400
Average : 0.3922

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 19.43
Evaluated at bid price : 19.43
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %

W.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.89 – 24.42
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3703

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-12-31
Maturity Price : 23.62
Evaluated at bid price : 23.89
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %

BNS.PR.C FloatingReset Quote: 22.29 – 22.99
Spot Rate : 0.7000
Average : 0.5610

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.29
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 15.40 – 16.00
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.4723

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 8.34 %

IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.30 – 25.70
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2982

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %

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