PrefBlog

The FOMC Release was no surprise:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Austan D. Goolsbee voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

The press conference was more interesting:

“If we do get the data that we hope, then a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table at the September meeting,” Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said during a news conference on Wednesday. Mr. Powell also suggested that the Fed could make a string of reductions before the end of the year, depending on inflation and job market data.

“I can imagine a scenario in which there would be everywhere from zero cuts to several cuts, depending on the way the economy evolves,” Mr. Powell said. That remark was notable because it implied that three rate cuts were possible, which is in line with market expectations but more than the two the Fed had most recently forecast.

Mr. Powell spoke shortly after the Fed announced that it would hold rates at 5.3 percent for now — a two-decade high, where they have remained for a year.

Five-year Canadas are now at 3.11%.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.30%, equivalent to 8.19% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yielded 5.05% on 2024-7-26 and since then the closing price of ZLC has changed from 15.05 to 15.24, an increase of 126bp in price, implying a decrease of yields of 10bp (BMO reports a duration of 12.29, but don’t disclose whether this is Macaulay or Modified; I will assume Modified) to 4.95%. Therefore, the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has narrowed to 325bp from the 335bp reported July 24.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 31st, 2024 at 10:04 pm and is filed under Market Action. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.