September 10, 2025

Wholesale inflation in the States is basically flat, but this came at the apparent expense of domestic profit margins:

Producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in August, cooling annual inflation to 2.6% from a downwardly revised 3.1% in July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Helping to drive prices lower was a 1.7% drop in trade services, a category reflective of producers, wholesalers and retailers’ profit margins. If margins are shrinking, it could be an indication that businesses are using those to eat higher costs, economists have said.

The trade services category can be highly volatile; however, August’s drop is the biggest monthly decline there in more than a year.

When excluding highly volatile components like trade services, as well as food and energy, the underlying inflation trend appears less rosy: Prices rose 0.3% from July and ticked up to 2.8% for the 12 months ended in August.

Meanwhile, Miran made it through committee en route to the Fed governor nomination:

On Wednesday, Stephen Miran’s nomination to become a Fed governor got the green light in a procedural Senate committee vote Wednesday. Soon, all 50 senators will vote on whether to confirm him — a hurdle Miran is expected to clear in time to join the Fed for its rate-setting meeting next week.
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In written responses to the banking committee, released Tuesday, Miran said that, if confirmed, he won’t commit to resigning when the governor term ends in January if a permanent successor hasn’t been named. When Trump nominated Miran last month, he said it would be a temporary appointment to finish out Kugler’s unexpired term. Miran, currently the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, reiterated that plan last week during his confirmation hearing.

But Lisa Cook remains in office:

A federal judge late Tuesday blocked President Donald Trump’s unprecedented effort to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

“President Trump has not identified anything related to Cook’s conduct or job performance as a Board member that would indicate that she is harming the Board or the public interest by executing her duties unfaithfully or ineffectively,” Judge Jia Cobb, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, wrote, as she granted Cook’s request to stop the attempted firing.

The decision comes just weeks after Trump said he fired Cook — the first Fed governor ever to be fired by the president. The administration is expected to appeal Cobb’s preliminary injunction, which ensures the Federal Reserve must keep Cook on as a governor while the legal challenge plays out.

Cobb said on first look Cook’s claim that she was improperly fired is a valid one and that it violated her rights under the Fifth Amendment. At the same time, the judge, who sits on the federal bench in DC, said she believed the issue brings up new legal questions that need to be addressed over the long term.

“President Trump’s actions and Cook’s resulting legal challenge raise many serious questions of first impression that the Court believes will benefit from further briefing on a non-emergency timeline,” Cobb wrote. “However, at this preliminary stage, the Court finds that Cook has made a strong showing that her purported removal was done in violation of the Federal Reserve Act’s ‘for cause’ provision.”
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“The Court finds that permissible cause for removal of a Federal Reserve Governor extends only to concerns about the Board member’s ability to effectively and faithfully execute their statutory duties, in light of events that have occurred while they are in office,” the judge wrote.
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“While admitting that the President cannot remove an official for policy disagreements, the Government claims … a removal on the grounds of a policy disagreement would nevertheless be unreviewable,” Cobb wrote.

“This cannot be the case,” she added. “Such a rule would provide no practical insulation for the members of the Board of Governors. It would mean that the President could, in practice, ‘remove a member … merely because he wanted his own appointees on the’ Board of Governors.”
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If Cook, a Biden appointee, is successfully removed, it would leave only two Fed governors appointed by a Democratic president on the seven-member board.

“We’ll have a majority very shortly,” Trump said during a recent Cabinet meeting. “So, that’ll be great. Once we have a majority, housing is going to swing, and it’s going to be great.”

Wow. Trump is going to be surprised when he finds out that American residential mortgages are priced off the 10-year bond, not policy rates.

And the jobs number statistics operation is being checked:

The Department of Labor is initiating an investigation into how the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects and reports “closely watched economic data,” according to a letter the department’s Assistant Inspector General for Audit, Laura Nicolosi, sent to Acting BLS Commissioner William Wiatrowski on Wednesday.
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While members of the Trump administration said on Tuesday that the annual revisions are a sign that the president inherited a worse economy from former President Joe Biden, they’ve also said that it’s proof that changes need to be made at the BLS to improve the accuracy of data.
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At the same time, BLS officials have, for more than a decade, sounded alarm bells about being too underfunded and too understaffed to implement the necessary practices to modernize data collection, analysis and reporting. In recent months, the agency has cited staffing challenges as the reason for reduced collections on critical inflation data.

In addition to employment data, Nicolosi’s letter specified that her team’s investigation would also focus on “challenges and related mitigating strategies” for two of the BLS’ most closely tracked monthly inflation reports: the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index.

Wait until the Trump administration learns that quality costs money! That’ll be fun.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.63%, equivalent to 7.32% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yielded 4.87% on 2025-9-9 and the price of the fund increased from 15.22 (2025-9-9) to 15.29 (2025-9-10), or 46bp, with a duration of 12.27 (BMO does not specify what kind of duration; I will assume Modified) implying a yield decrease of 4bp, implying in turn a 2025-9-10 yield of 4.83%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now 250bp, a sharp widening from the 230bp reported September 3.