Good news from America! The American consumer is still spending:
The US economy’s comeback in the second quarter was just revised higher again, and economists estimate that momentum carried on in the third quarter, underscoring the resilience of the world’s largest economy.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of 3.8% from April through June, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s significantly higher than the 3.3% rate reported in the second estimate, and well above the 3% initially reported.
GDP was revised higher largely due to new additional data on consumer spending. Personal consumption expenditures rose at an annualized pace of 2.5% in the second quarter, according to the third estimate, up sharply from the second estimate’s 1.6%.
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that GDP continued to power through at a robust pace in the third quarter, forecasting third-quarter GDP to register at a solid 3.3% rate.
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Against the odds, retail sales, which comprise a sizable chunk of overall spending, rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, according to Commerce Department data, following July’s 0.6% gain.
Canadian GDP was up for different reasons:
Real gross domestic product grew in July for the first time in four months and by slightly more than expected, suggesting the economy will likely avoid a recession this year as U.S. tariffs batter key Canadian sectors.
Statistics Canada reported Friday that the 0.2-per-cent increase in real GDP was largely driven by growth in good-producing industries. The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector led growth in July, expanding by 1.4 per cent.
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Motor vehicle parts and motor vehicle manufacturing expanded by 10.5 per cent and 9.1 per cent respectively in July, which coincided with an increase in exports of those goods that month, the Statscan report noted.However, activity in iron and steel mills and ferro-alloy manufacturing was down by about 25-per-cent since February, before the U.S. imposed a 25-per-cent tariff on steel imports in March.
The industry group in July experienced its steepest decline since April 2020, contracting by 19.1 per cent after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled the tariff rate to 50 per cent in June.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 6.68 % | 7.14 % | 31,377 | 13.28 | 1 | -0.6079 % | 2,443.3 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0509 % | 4,592.7 |
| Floater | 6.28 % | 6.56 % | 60,125 | 13.16 | 3 | 0.0509 % | 2,646.8 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1588 % | 3,646.1 |
| SplitShare | 4.80 % | 4.52 % | 63,895 | 3.37 | 6 | 0.1588 % | 4,354.3 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1588 % | 3,397.4 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.55 % | 0.06 % | 86,073 | 0.08 | 4 | 0.1391 % | 3,082.8 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.61 % | 5.70 % | 45,885 | 14.28 | 28 | 0.1439 % | 3,347.0 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.92 % | 6.06 % | 126,346 | 13.64 | 32 | 0.1511 % | 3,028.8 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.60 % | 5.60 % | 53,979 | 14.52 | 18 | -0.8086 % | 3,233.0 |
| FloatingReset | 5.00 % | 5.02 % | 45,072 | 15.48 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 3,767.2 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.66 % | 5.05 % | 123,016 | 2.42 | 21 | 0.1617 % | 2,628.9 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1511 % | 3,096.0 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.26 % | 5.43 % | 58,999 | 14.54 | 15 | 0.1286 % | 3,048.2 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | -7.00 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 20.20 Evaluated at bid price : 20.20 Bid-YTW : 6.04 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -5.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 5.60 % |
| GWO.PR.Q | Insurance Straight | -2.62 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 22.07 Evaluated at bid price : 22.30 Bid-YTW : 5.80 % |
| BN.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | -1.78 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 20.46 Evaluated at bid price : 20.46 Bid-YTW : 5.97 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 18.11 Evaluated at bid price : 18.11 Bid-YTW : 5.79 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | -1.52 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 20.70 Evaluated at bid price : 20.70 Bid-YTW : 5.41 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | -1.43 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 5.69 % |
| TD.PF.J | FixedReset Prem | 1.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2028-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.81 Bid-YTW : 4.81 % |
| IFC.PR.C | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.92 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 23.30 Evaluated at bid price : 23.85 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| BIP.PR.F | FixedReset Prem | 1.95 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 23.39 Evaluated at bid price : 25.15 Bid-YTW : 5.73 % |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 23.43 Evaluated at bid price : 25.00 Bid-YTW : 5.35 % |
| CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 2.95 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 20.60 Evaluated at bid price : 20.60 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| FFH.PR.I | FixedReset Disc | 124,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 24.04 Evaluated at bid price : 24.83 Bid-YTW : 5.57 % |
| CU.PR.I | FixedReset Prem | 110,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-12-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.10 Bid-YTW : 4.02 % |
| POW.PR.H | Perpetual-Premium | 100,885 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2034-10-15 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.28 Bid-YTW : 5.64 % |
| MFC.PR.M | FixedReset Ins Non | 56,500 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 22.69 Evaluated at bid price : 23.70 Bid-YTW : 5.48 % |
| FFH.PR.G | FixedReset Prem | 53,052 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 23.93 Evaluated at bid price : 24.98 Bid-YTW : 5.27 % |
| IFC.PR.C | FixedReset Ins Non | 52,991 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-26 Maturity Price : 23.30 Evaluated at bid price : 23.85 Bid-YTW : 5.52 % |
| There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | Quote: 20.20 – 22.07 Spot Rate : 1.8700 Average : 1.2328 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PF.A | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.33 – 21.50 Spot Rate : 1.1700 Average : 0.7755 YTW SCENARIO |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | Quote: 20.00 – 21.30 Spot Rate : 1.3000 Average : 0.9593 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.Q | Insurance Straight | Quote: 22.30 – 24.20 Spot Rate : 1.9000 Average : 1.6146 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.46 – 21.45 Spot Rate : 0.9900 Average : 0.7299 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | Quote: 20.32 – 20.85 Spot Rate : 0.5300 Average : 0.3689 YTW SCENARIO |