The Boston Fed has released a “Current Policy Perspective” titled Who Will Pay for Tariffs? Businesses’ Expectations about Costs and Prices by Philippe Andrade, Alexander M. Dietrich, John Leer, Xiao Lin, Raphael S. Schoenle, Jenny Tang, and Egon Zakrajšek:
Amid evolving global trade policy and rising tariff uncertainty, understanding how small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) form expectations about future costs and adjust their pricing is critical for assessing how the recently imposed tariffs on US imports could impact consumer prices. To that end, this brief analyzes several waves of a survey of owners and other decision-makers at a nationally representative sample of US SMBs. It focuses on waves conducted during the period of December 2024 to August 2025.
Key Takeaways:
- From December 2024 to April 2025, the share of SMBs expecting larger tariffs increased considerably; expectations about the size of future tariffs also increased over time.
- In the August 2025 survey wave, SMBs whose costs are affected by the new tariffs reported paying an average tariff rate in July 2025 (11.4%) that was nearly double the average rate they paid in January 2025 (6.5%).
- SMBs that believe the new tariffs will persist for a year or longer expect to pass through as much as three times more of their cost increases into consumer prices compared with SMBs that believe the new tariffs will be short-lived.
- A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a 0.75 percent near-term increase in core consumer prices stemming from recent tariff increases on directly imported consumer goods.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 6.73 % | 7.16 % | 30,151 | 13.33 | 1 | -0.9174 % | 2,420.9 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0764 % | 4,589.2 |
| Floater | 6.29 % | 6.56 % | 60,115 | 13.14 | 3 | -0.0764 % | 2,644.8 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0793 % | 3,649.0 |
| SplitShare | 4.80 % | 4.44 % | 63,018 | 3.36 | 6 | 0.0793 % | 4,357.7 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0793 % | 3,400.1 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.54 % | -1.75 % | 87,071 | 0.08 | 4 | 0.1191 % | 3,086.5 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.59 % | 5.67 % | 45,546 | 14.32 | 28 | 0.5052 % | 3,363.9 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.89 % | 6.01 % | 125,962 | 13.72 | 32 | 0.3689 % | 3,039.9 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.51 % | 5.56 % | 53,592 | 14.57 | 18 | 1.5977 % | 3,284.7 |
| FloatingReset | 5.01 % | 5.03 % | 43,306 | 15.46 | 1 | 0.0400 % | 3,768.7 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.66 % | 4.95 % | 122,562 | 2.41 | 21 | 0.0408 % | 2,630.0 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.3689 % | 3,107.4 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.24 % | 5.41 % | 57,135 | 14.52 | 15 | 0.2453 % | 3,055.7 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| IFC.PR.C | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.89 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 22.85 Evaluated at bid price : 23.40 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
| BIP.PR.F | FixedReset Prem | -1.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 23.28 Evaluated at bid price : 24.84 Bid-YTW : 5.83 % |
| BN.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | 1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 23.53 Evaluated at bid price : 25.45 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 20.05 Evaluated at bid price : 20.05 Bid-YTW : 5.72 % |
| MFC.PR.M | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.43 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 22.85 Evaluated at bid price : 24.04 Bid-YTW : 5.41 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | 1.64 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 21.04 Evaluated at bid price : 21.04 Bid-YTW : 5.32 % |
| BN.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | 1.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 20.82 Evaluated at bid price : 20.82 Bid-YTW : 5.87 % |
| CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 1.79 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 23.02 Evaluated at bid price : 23.29 Bid-YTW : 5.69 % |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | 2.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 19.94 Evaluated at bid price : 19.94 Bid-YTW : 6.26 % |
| BN.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | 2.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 22.63 Evaluated at bid price : 23.43 Bid-YTW : 5.92 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 2.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 18.53 Evaluated at bid price : 18.53 Bid-YTW : 5.68 % |
| GWO.PR.Q | Insurance Straight | 3.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 22.73 Evaluated at bid price : 23.02 Bid-YTW : 5.61 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 3.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 20.65 Evaluated at bid price : 20.65 Bid-YTW : 5.51 % |
| SLF.PR.C | Insurance Straight | 5.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 21.05 Evaluated at bid price : 21.05 Bid-YTW : 5.32 % |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | 6.00 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 21.47 Evaluated at bid price : 21.73 Bid-YTW : 5.61 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | 7.92 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 21.54 Evaluated at bid price : 21.80 Bid-YTW : 5.58 % |
| IFC.PR.E | Insurance Straight | 8.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 23.62 Evaluated at bid price : 23.90 Bid-YTW : 5.46 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| FFH.PR.G | FixedReset Prem | 78,500 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 23.92 Evaluated at bid price : 24.99 Bid-YTW : 5.29 % |
| BN.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | 48,300 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 22.25 Evaluated at bid price : 22.93 Bid-YTW : 6.13 % |
| ENB.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 36,400 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 21.32 Evaluated at bid price : 21.32 Bid-YTW : 6.43 % |
| BN.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | 31,500 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 23.53 Evaluated at bid price : 25.45 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| ENB.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 30,200 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 21.83 Evaluated at bid price : 22.09 Bid-YTW : 5.84 % |
| SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 25,200 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-09-29 Maturity Price : 18.53 Evaluated at bid price : 18.53 Bid-YTW : 5.68 % |
| There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| GWO.PR.G | Insurance Straight | Quote: 23.57 – 25.00 Spot Rate : 1.4300 Average : 0.9859 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.54 – 22.19 Spot Rate : 0.6500 Average : 0.4340 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PF.A | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.34 – 21.50 Spot Rate : 1.1600 Average : 0.9766 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.H | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 25.16 – 25.88 Spot Rate : 0.7200 Average : 0.5391 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.J | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 25.12 – 25.70 Spot Rate : 0.5800 Average : 0.4162 YTW SCENARIO |
| IFC.PR.I | Insurance Straight | Quote: 24.37 – 24.94 Spot Rate : 0.5700 Average : 0.4435 YTW SCENARIO |