The Canadian economy enjoyed a burst of hiring activity for the second consecutive month in October, offsetting summer job losses and bolstering calls that the Bank of Canada is done cutting interest rates for now.
The labour market added 67,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6.9 per cent from 7.1 per cent, Statistics Canada said Friday in a report. Financial analysts were expecting a small loss of 5,000 positions.
…
The odds are slim that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates at its next decision on Dec. 10. Interest rate swaps, which capture market expectations of monetary policy, are pricing in a 5-per-cent chance of a reduction next month, down from 13-per-cent odds on Thursday, according to Bloomberg data.
…
There were, however, some weak spots in Friday’s report. The entirety of October’s job gains were in part-time work, and most industries shed positions during the month. Statscan noted that from January to October, employment in goods-producing industries has fallen by 54,000, largely because of losses in construction and manufacturing.
Fitch doesn’t think much of the federal budget:
Combined with sizable non-budgetary financing needs (mainly support of enterprise crown corporations), the higher deficits will substantially increase general government gross debt (GGGD), which we forecast to reach 91.8% of GDP in 2025 from 88.6% in 2024, before accelerating to 98.5% by 2027, nearly double the forecast ‘AA’ median of 49.6%.
…
However, despite the government’s Comprehensive Expenditure Review and substantial increase in capital expenditure, the budget only proposes to cut CAD60 billion in spending over five years, the bulk of which comes from civil service reductions of around 10%. Key social programs established under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, such as PharmaCare, will be protected.Provincial operating transfers are left untouched, and the provinces stand to gain from the government’s investment priorities—both directly, through higher capital transfers for key infrastructure projects, and indirectly, through economic activity triggered by expanded investments. However, rising central government debt could weigh on provincial debt metrics Fitch tracks, particularly if near-term economic gains fail to materialize.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0255 % | 2,419.6 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0255 % | 4,588.0 |
| Floater | 5.95 % | 6.23 % | 56,473 | 13.54 | 3 | 0.0255 % | 2,644.1 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2035 % | 3,694.1 |
| SplitShare | 4.73 % | 4.45 % | 65,255 | 3.26 | 5 | 0.2035 % | 4,411.6 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2035 % | 3,442.1 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.64 % | -11.83 % | 75,224 | 0.09 | 6 | 0.0391 % | 3,124.0 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.42 % | 5.48 % | 46,461 | 14.59 | 25 | -0.3326 % | 3,451.4 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.75 % | 5.87 % | 109,803 | 13.78 | 30 | -0.0488 % | 3,110.6 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.38 % | 5.42 % | 57,707 | 14.72 | 21 | -0.7777 % | 3,377.8 |
| FloatingReset | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0488 % | 3,700.4 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.86 % | 4.70 % | 106,211 | 2.34 | 21 | -0.0405 % | 2,644.1 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0488 % | 3,179.7 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.17 % | 5.28 % | 59,275 | 14.52 | 15 | -0.0086 % | 3,101.4 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | -11.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 19.70 Evaluated at bid price : 19.70 Bid-YTW : 6.05 % |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -11.42 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 19.71 Evaluated at bid price : 19.71 Bid-YTW : 5.80 % |
| SLF.PR.E | Insurance Straight | -5.69 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 21.05 Evaluated at bid price : 21.05 Bid-YTW : 5.42 % |
| PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | -3.83 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 17.60 Evaluated at bid price : 17.60 Bid-YTW : 6.13 % |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | -2.71 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 22.93 Evaluated at bid price : 23.35 Bid-YTW : 5.48 % |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | -2.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 21.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.00 Bid-YTW : 5.43 % |
| BN.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | -1.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 23.37 Evaluated at bid price : 24.55 Bid-YTW : 5.87 % |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | -1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 22.07 Evaluated at bid price : 22.30 Bid-YTW : 5.28 % |
| FTS.PR.G | FixedReset Disc | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 23.39 Evaluated at bid price : 24.95 Bid-YTW : 5.09 % |
| SLF.PR.H | FixedReset Ins Non | -1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 21.78 Evaluated at bid price : 22.25 Bid-YTW : 5.40 % |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | 1.13 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 22.10 Evaluated at bid price : 22.32 Bid-YTW : 5.41 % |
| BN.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | 1.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 21.24 Evaluated at bid price : 21.24 Bid-YTW : 5.67 % |
| ENB.PR.D | FixedReset Disc | 1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 21.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.00 Bid-YTW : 6.26 % |
| POW.PR.B | Perpetual-Discount | 1.29 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 24.09 Evaluated at bid price : 24.35 Bid-YTW : 5.54 % |
| FTS.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | 1.33 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 22.66 Evaluated at bid price : 22.90 Bid-YTW : 5.27 % |
| MFC.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.84 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 22.99 Evaluated at bid price : 24.40 Bid-YTW : 5.18 % |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | 3.09 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 23.73 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 5.42 % |
| BN.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 5.67 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 19.77 Evaluated at bid price : 19.77 Bid-YTW : 5.81 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| RY.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | 103,020 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-12-07 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.98 Bid-YTW : 3.12 % |
| FFH.PR.I | FixedReset Disc | 75,591 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 24.07 Evaluated at bid price : 24.97 Bid-YTW : 5.57 % |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | 68,000 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 21.52 Evaluated at bid price : 21.90 Bid-YTW : 6.14 % |
| BN.PF.D | Perpetual-Discount | 54,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 21.70 Evaluated at bid price : 21.95 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | 50,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-11-07 Maturity Price : 22.40 Evaluated at bid price : 22.66 Bid-YTW : 5.41 % |
| RY.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | 33,400 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-12-24 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.96 Bid-YTW : 4.70 % |
| There were 8 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 19.70 – 23.15 Spot Rate : 3.4500 Average : 1.9578 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | Quote: 19.71 – 22.49 Spot Rate : 2.7800 Average : 1.8829 YTW SCENARIO |
| SLF.PR.E | Insurance Straight | Quote: 21.05 – 22.40 Spot Rate : 1.3500 Average : 0.8566 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 23.35 – 24.90 Spot Rate : 1.5500 Average : 1.0673 YTW SCENARIO |
| PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.60 – 18.41 Spot Rate : 0.8100 Average : 0.4927 YTW SCENARIO |
| BN.PF.I | FixedReset Prem | Quote: 25.62 – 26.62 Spot Rate : 1.0000 Average : 0.7036 YTW SCENARIO |