Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated.
Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship and is contributing to elevated global uncertainty. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
There was some additional information in the press conference:
Powell is giving a clear reason for one reason why the Fed does not plan to stop their campaign, saying that the labor market remains extremely tight. While “the pace of job gains has slowed” the labor market continues to be “out of balance.”
…
Powell notes that wage growth is abating, but remains pretty elevated. But he calls job openings — there are 1.9 per every unemployed person — important. And he notes that job creation is strong and quits are high. In short, he still sees a pretty strong job market.
…
“There is only one way forward here,” Powell says, when asked about the debt limit: Congress must raise it. Anything else, like planning for what would happen if the debt limit is not raised, would be risky, he says.
…
“No one should assume that the Fed can protect the economy” if Congress fails to raise the limit, he adds.
…
Investors and policymakers have been in a standoff for a while now, with the Fed indicating it plans to keep rates high and markets expecting the central bank to cut rates later this year as the economy loses momentum. Powell took a shot across investors’ bow just now: “I just don’t see us cutting rates this year,” he said.
PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.99%, equivalent to 7.79% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yielded 4.89% on 2023-1-20 and since then the closing price has changed from 15.51 to 15.53, an increase of 13bp in price, with a Duration of 12.36 (BMO doesn’t specify whether this is Macaulay or Modified Duration; I will assume Modified) which implies a decline in yield of about 1bp since 1/20 to 4.88%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has narrowed to about 290bp from the 295bp reported January 25.
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1484 % | 2,587.1 |
FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1484 % | 4,962.1 |
Floater | 8.71 % | 8.85 % | 58,135 | 10.49 | 2 | -0.1484 % | 2,859.7 |
OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0120 % | 3,421.8 |
SplitShare | 4.91 % | 6.47 % | 54,877 | 2.80 | 7 | 0.0120 % | 4,086.4 |
Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0120 % | 3,188.4 |
Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3175 % | 2,862.2 |
Perpetual-Discount | 5.96 % | 5.99 % | 83,935 | 13.90 | 37 | -0.3175 % | 3,121.1 |
FixedReset Disc | 5.40 % | 7.16 % | 91,809 | 12.59 | 59 | -0.4910 % | 2,257.1 |
Insurance Straight | 5.81 % | 5.95 % | 93,188 | 13.96 | 20 | -0.1267 % | 3,090.8 |
FloatingReset | 9.68 % | 10.12 % | 41,455 | 9.40 | 2 | 0.0946 % | 2,576.2 |
FixedReset Prem | 6.33 % | 6.25 % | 181,048 | 4.06 | 3 | 0.0528 % | 2,393.5 |
FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.4910 % | 2,307.2 |
FixedReset Ins Non | 5.42 % | 7.04 % | 48,280 | 12.71 | 14 | -0.0715 % | 2,382.7 |
Performance Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
IFC.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | -23.71 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 14.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.00 Bid-YTW : 9.24 % |
BMO.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | -5.80 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 17.05 Evaluated at bid price : 17.05 Bid-YTW : 7.54 % |
CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | -3.86 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 20.19 Evaluated at bid price : 20.19 Bid-YTW : 6.08 % |
CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | -3.04 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 20.21 Evaluated at bid price : 20.21 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
CCS.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -1.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 21.30 Evaluated at bid price : 21.30 Bid-YTW : 5.95 % |
PWF.PR.K | Perpetual-Discount | -1.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 20.87 Evaluated at bid price : 20.87 Bid-YTW : 5.98 % |
IAF.PR.B | Insurance Straight | -1.21 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 20.35 Evaluated at bid price : 20.35 Bid-YTW : 5.73 % |
BMO.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | 1.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 19.20 Evaluated at bid price : 19.20 Bid-YTW : 6.96 % |
TRP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 14.35 Evaluated at bid price : 14.35 Bid-YTW : 8.46 % |
CU.PR.I | FixedReset Disc | 1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-12-01 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.50 Bid-YTW : 5.16 % |
PWF.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 18.90 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 7.16 % |
CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 19.70 Evaluated at bid price : 19.70 Bid-YTW : 5.72 % |
PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | 1.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 13.30 Evaluated at bid price : 13.30 Bid-YTW : 7.79 % |
PWF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 3.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 23.68 Evaluated at bid price : 23.95 Bid-YTW : 6.04 % |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
TRP.PR.D | FixedReset Disc | 70,697 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 16.22 Evaluated at bid price : 16.22 Bid-YTW : 8.28 % |
RY.PR.H | FixedReset Disc | 40,457 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 18.30 Evaluated at bid price : 18.30 Bid-YTW : 7.09 % |
TD.PF.C | FixedReset Disc | 33,311 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 17.88 Evaluated at bid price : 17.88 Bid-YTW : 7.23 % |
BNS.PR.I | FixedReset Disc | 30,103 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 21.25 Evaluated at bid price : 21.25 Bid-YTW : 6.49 % |
FTS.PR.G | FixedReset Disc | 28,491 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 18.50 Evaluated at bid price : 18.50 Bid-YTW : 7.14 % |
PWF.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 27,100 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-02-01 Maturity Price : 18.90 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 7.16 % |
There were 9 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. |
Wide Spread Highlights | ||
Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
IFC.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 14.00 – 18.50 Spot Rate : 4.5000 Average : 2.9441 YTW SCENARIO |
CU.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.57 – 23.12 Spot Rate : 2.5500 Average : 2.0574 YTW SCENARIO |
CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.21 – 21.39 Spot Rate : 1.1800 Average : 0.7425 YTW SCENARIO |
BMO.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.05 – 18.10 Spot Rate : 1.0500 Average : 0.7180 YTW SCENARIO |
CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.19 – 21.35 Spot Rate : 1.1600 Average : 0.8465 YTW SCENARIO |
CM.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 24.27 – 24.95 Spot Rate : 0.6800 Average : 0.5025 YTW SCENARIO |
PPL.PF.E : No Conversion To FloatingReset
February 2nd, 2023Pembina Pipeline Corporation has announced (on 2023-1-31):
PPL.PF.E was issued as KML.PR.C, a FixedReset, 5.20%+351M520, that commenced trading 2017-12-15 after being announced 2017-12-6. A Plan of Arrangement was announced in August 2019 and a vote by preferred shareholders was made explicit in September 2019. The ticker changed in late 2019. The shares reset to 6.481% in 2023.
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